Less than a month before it convenes, Paris is betting on the success of a conference to support the Lebanese Armed Forces, scheduled for March 5 and chaired by French President Emmanuel Macron.
French officials expect the meeting to draw representatives from around 50 countries and some 10 international and regional organizations. The numbers, if confirmed, would underscore the scale of international investment in the role of the Lebanese army and the priority given to bolstering its capabilities.
The conference coincides with the launch of the second phase of Lebanon’s plan to bring all weapons under the state’s control, beginning north of the Litani River in southern Lebanon and extending to the Awali River. Preparations are underway for a preliminary meeting to be held in two weeks. Paris says the conference itself will take place either in Riyadh or Doha.
France has asked the Lebanese army to update its projected needs in arms, equipment and funding for the coming years, enabling participating states to respond with targeted support.
French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot will discuss preparations for the conference and Lebanon’s complex domestic and regional context during his visit to Beirut this week, part of a regional tour that also includes Baghdad, Erbil and Damascus. This is Barrot’s third visit to Lebanon, but the first since President Joseph Aoun took office and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam formed a new government.
At the forefront of Barrot’s meetings with Lebanon’s senior leadership will be the issue of Hezbollah’s weapons. French officials point to the group’s continued refusal to disarm and to statements by its secretary-general, Naim Qassem, expressing readiness to join a war against Iran should Tehran be targeted by the United States or Israel.
Paris warns that Iran - amid strained relations with France and other European countries - may seek to draw its allies into such a conflict, a scenario that would directly implicate Hezbollah. According to officials who spoke to Asharq Al-Awsat, Paris insists that Lebanon’s national interest lies in remaining outside any Iranian–American–Israeli confrontation, in order to preserve its stability, sovereignty and internal security.
While France assesses that Hezbollah’s military and financial capabilities have been weakened following what it describes as its “defeat” in the war with Israel, it believes the group still retains the capacity to resist disarmament by force if it chooses, despite having accepted the handover of weapons south of the Litani.
Paris argues, however, that outright refusal would exact a “heavy price,” both on Hezbollah and on Lebanon as a whole, while providing Israel - already accusing the group of violating the Nov. 2024 ceasefire - with further justification for escalation. French officials also noted signs of unease within Hezbollah’s support base, even if dissenting voices remain muted.
Moreover, officials said that Paris views positively the Lebanese army’s performance in the first phase south of the Litani and insists on completing the plan.
Economically, France takes a cautiously positive view of the government’s draft law addressing the financial gap, seeing it as an essential step toward an agreement with the International Monetary Fund, without which international aid and reconstruction support will not materialize.
French officials have called on parliament to pass the bill swiftly, saying it would protect around 85 percent of small depositors. France also anticipates a technical postponement of parliamentary elections for several months, most likely until next summer.
