Authorities in Lebanon now see little option but to seek a humanitarian truce during the upcoming Eid al-Fitr, after ceasefire efforts in the war between Israel and Hezbollah collapsed against entrenched positions on both sides.
Israel is demanding Hezbollah’s “complete surrender” before halting operations in Lebanon. The party, in turn, has tied its stance to Iran’s position, after entering the wider conflict involving Tehran, Washington, and Tel Aviv.
A senior Lebanese official told Asharq Al-Awsat that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu sent a ceasefire proposal, relayed by French President Emmanuel Macron, to Lebanese President Joseph Aoun 10 days ago.
Hezbollah’s decision to cut communication channels, followed by its launch of its “Al-Asf Al-Maakoul” (Eaten Straw) a wide military operation, derailed the initiative and led to Israel hardening its position.
Hezbollah’s posture remains the main domestic obstacle to ending the war. The group has yet to present a clear political position outlining its readiness to stop the fighting or its objectives, even as it escalates militarily in parallel with diplomatic efforts.
Lebanese delegation
The Lebanese source said no date or venue has been set for talks with Israel, and no formal Israeli response has been received. Messages conveyed through Macron and United Nations Special Coordinator for Lebanon Jeanine Hennis-Plasschaert have, however, raised a central question still unanswered by Beirut: if fighting stops, will Hezbollah stop firing rockets?
Lebanon, the source said, cannot afford a delay. Aoun is moving to finalize a negotiating delegation expected to include four figures representing the country’s main sects.
Named so far are former ambassador Simon Karam, a Christian who took part in “mechanism” committee meetings, Foreign Ministry Secretary-General Ambassador Abdel Sattar Issa, a Sunni nominated by Prime Minister Nawaf Salam, and Shawki Bou Nassar, a Druze figure named by senior Druze leader Walid Jumblatt.
Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri is still refusing to name a Shiite representative, conditioning this on a ceasefire and the return of displaced people.
He has also yet to respond to a proposal to appoint a member to a parallel “shadow delegation” to accompany the talks. The source said Israel is insisting, through indirect messages, on the inclusion of a Shiite member.
The source said Berri could prove pivotal, as the only figure capable of exerting pressure on Hezbollah at this stage and beyond.
Israel’s Maariv newspaper, citing Israeli sources, said Tel Aviv sees Berri as able to either back or block any move. While he opposes negotiations under fire and insists on a ceasefire first, Israeli assessments suggest he could later endorse any understandings that align with Lebanon’s interests and internal balance, providing political cover for Hezbollah to accept them.
United States
The source said Washington’s silence should not be read as negative. The US is fully focused on its conflict with Iran, but has not given Israel a free hand in Lebanon, otherwise the situation would look different.
He added that Aoun’s initiative has been well received in Washington, with President Donald Trump’s adviser for African affairs, Massad Boulos, and the president’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner, officially tasked with following the file and leading the expected negotiations.
Negotiations under fire
The source ruled out a near-term end to Israeli operations, saying Aoun is pressing ahead on the basis that negotiations under fire are better than negotiations after devastation.
The president fears what Israel may be preparing for Lebanon in the coming period and is seeking to avert it before it is too late, the source said.
The displacement crisis is placing severe strain on state institutions amid a lack of external support. The source questioned who would fund reconstruction given regional instability and global economic pressures.
During a visit to Beirut last week, United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres launched a $308 million humanitarian appeal for displaced people, but only about $100 million has been raised, far short of the needs of 1.3 million displaced.
Hezbollah's weapons
Aoun’s initiative does not aim at a peace deal with Israel, but at technical talks starting with a ceasefire, an Israeli withdrawal, prisoner releases, and border demarcation, the source said.
Hezbollah’s weapons would then become an inevitable issue, with no remaining justification, to be handled firmly in line with government decisions and Lebanon’s interest that arms be held exclusively by the state.
Aoun and the government had opted to address the issue through dialogue, but tougher measures would be a last resort if Hezbollah fails to respond to what serves Lebanon’s interests, particularly those of the Shiite community, which the source said has paid a heavy price for entering a new “support war” with an unfavorable balance of power and no clear military horizon.
The Lebanese army has already begun tightening its grip on armed Hezbollah members, who can no longer move weapons or fighters freely through checkpoints in the south. The army is now aware of multiple sites it could target after the war ends.
The source rejected claims that the war is existential for Lebanon’s Shiites, describing them as a founding community with strong representation across state institutions and parliament, never marginalized.
He said they are expected to play a central role in rebuilding Lebanon and supporting its stability and prosperity, adding that reducing the community to a single party or movement is not realistic.
