Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s first visit to Damascus might have passed as routine, aimed at strengthening ties, but its timing amid regional tensions and Türkiye’s presence gave it added weight.
Analysts saw multiple messages in the trip, including signals to Russia as regional power balances shift. A military expert instead framed it as part of Zelenskyy’s regional push to promote Ukrainian drones, curb sales of stolen Ukrainian grain, and secure Syrian phosphate.
Retired colonel Imad Shahoud told Asharq Al-Awsat that Türkiye is keen to keep relations between Damascus and Kyiv balanced, in line with Ankara’s cautious approach to Syria. Turkish participation, he said, was meant to keep talks on track and avoid politically sensitive positions during the ongoing war.
He placed the visit within Zelenskyy’s broader outreach, which included defense agreements with Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates, as well as security talks in Istanbul.
Shahoud said Ukraine is seeking to market its drones in exchange for French Mirage jets from Gulf states, while also pressing Gulf states for help to prevent Egypt from buying Ukrainian grain that Russia is selling at lower prices.
On Syria, he said Ukraine is offering wheat in exchange for phosphate at a low cost. A Russian company controls about 70 percent of Syria’s phosphate output and sells it to Europe.
He added that Western countries want to pull Syria away from Russia, but Damascus is maintaining a balanced relationship based on accepting “current realities”.
Many agreements remain in place and are under review, especially oil and gas deals granted to Russian firms as wartime compensation. Any misstep could affect those talks.
Abdulwahhab Assi, head of studies at Jusoor Center, said Syria is seeking to use current regional conditions to build a deterrence system. Israel has repeatedly opposed Turkish plans to deploy air defenses in southern and central Syria and has also objected to potential US provision of Patriot systems.
Assi told Asharq Al-Awsat that Syria’s options are limited between Ukraine and Russia. Kyiv offers lighter technologies that may avoid political and military complications with Syria or Israel, while Moscow appears weaker but remains in play.
He said Damascus needs leverage in talks with Russia over rebuilding military assets damaged during the war, particularly after Israel’s Operation Arrow of Bashan in December 2024.
Talks with Moscow have yet to deliver what Syria hopes for, he said, making engagement with Ukraine a potential pressure tool.
Still, he stressed Ukraine is not a strategic alternative to Russia, but a technical partner that could help reduce threats from Iranian missiles and drones, and assist in repairing military equipment through its officers and advisers.
Assi said Russia is likely to factor this into ongoing negotiations, as Syria, with Turkish backing, has secured a technical alternative that could strengthen its political position.
Abdulhamid Tawfiq, head of the Renaissance Center for Research and Studies, said the growing Ukrainian presence in Syria following Russia’s declining role was central to Zelenskyy’s visit.
The trip reflects wider regional and international shifts, with Ukraine now at the forefront of confrontation with Russia alongside NATO, the United States, and the West, which views Syria as strategically important, Tawfiq told Asharq Al-Awsat.
He said Ukraine’s emergence in Syria sends a direct message to Russia that new balances can be shaped in the country and the region.
Syria, he added, could turn to Ukraine for support across sectors, including the economy, agriculture, and civilian and military industry, helping drive development.
