Turkish Lira Teeters Near Record Low as Erdogan Secures Victory 

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, accompanied by his wife Emine Erdogan, addresses his supporters at the Presidential Palace in Ankara, Türkiye, May 28, 2023. (Presidential Press Office/Handout via Reuters)
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, accompanied by his wife Emine Erdogan, addresses his supporters at the Presidential Palace in Ankara, Türkiye, May 28, 2023. (Presidential Press Office/Handout via Reuters)
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Turkish Lira Teeters Near Record Low as Erdogan Secures Victory 

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, accompanied by his wife Emine Erdogan, addresses his supporters at the Presidential Palace in Ankara, Türkiye, May 28, 2023. (Presidential Press Office/Handout via Reuters)
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, accompanied by his wife Emine Erdogan, addresses his supporters at the Presidential Palace in Ankara, Türkiye, May 28, 2023. (Presidential Press Office/Handout via Reuters)

Türkiye's lira wobbled near record lows against the dollar as President Recep Tayyip Erdogan secured victory in the country's presidential election on Sunday, extending his increasingly authoritarian rule into a third decade.

 

The currency was at 20.05 to the dollar during Asian hours, just shy of the 20.06 record low hit on Friday.

 

The lira, prone to sharp swings before regular trading hours, has weakened more than 6% since the start of the year and lost more than 90% of its value over the past decade with the economy in the grip of boom and bust cycles, rampant bouts of inflation and a currency crisis.

 

Since a 2021 crisis, the authorities have taken an increasingly hands-on role in foreign exchange markets with daily moves having become unnaturally small and mostly recording a weakening while FX and gold reserves have dwindled.

 

"The current set up is just not sustainable," said Tim Ash at BlueBay Asset Management. "With limited FX reserves and massively negative real interest rates the pressure on the lira is heavy."

 

Erdogan prevailed despite years of economic turmoil which critics blame on unorthodox economic policies which the opposition had pledged to reverse.

 

"An Erdogan win offers no comfort for any foreign investor," said Hasnain Malik, head of equity research at Tellimer.

 

"Only the most optimistic would hope that Erdogan now feels sufficiently secure politically to revert to orthodox economic policy."

 

Erdogan's surprisingly strong showing in the first round of the election two weeks ago had triggered a selloff in Türkiye's international bonds and a spike in costs to insure exposure to its debt amid fading hopes of a change in economic policy.

 

The nation's dollar bonds slipped to their lowest in at least six months last week, while the cost of insuring exposure to Türkiye's debt via credit default swaps (CDS) rose to a seven-month high.

 

On Monday, the bond maturing in 2036 was stable, Tradeweb data showed. CDS too were steady after closing at 666 basis points on Friday. It was around 480 bps before the election.

 

In his victory speech, Erdogan acknowledged that inflation was the most urgent issue, but said it would also fall, following the central bank's policy rate that was cut to 8.5% from 19% two years ago.

 

Analysts were cautious in how much economic change Erdogan's new government would herald.

 

"Erdogan is unlikely to embrace an outright economic orthodox approach," Wolfango Piccoli, co-president at advisory firm Teneo said in emailed comments.

 

"However, some adjustments to the current heterodox approach could be adopted with the aim of gaining time ahead of the March 2024 local elections."

 

Trading is expected to be thin on Monday, with many markets in Europe, as well as the United States closed for holidays.



Dollar Hobbled by Economic Worries; Euro Remains in Favor

US dollar drifted within a tight range on Monday, pressured by lower Treasury yields - Reuters
US dollar drifted within a tight range on Monday, pressured by lower Treasury yields - Reuters
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Dollar Hobbled by Economic Worries; Euro Remains in Favor

US dollar drifted within a tight range on Monday, pressured by lower Treasury yields - Reuters
US dollar drifted within a tight range on Monday, pressured by lower Treasury yields - Reuters

The dollar hovered near a five-month low against major peers on Monday, bruised by President Donald Trump's erratic trade policies and soft economic data, at a time when other currencies, including the euro, benefit from domestic drivers.

The euro was last at $1.0905, up 0.2% on the day, and heading back towards the $1.0947 it hit last week, its highest since October 11.

The Japanese yen was also marginally stronger on the day at 148.48 per dollar, again after hitting its strongest in five months last week at 146.5 to the dollar.

That left the dollar index, which measures the US currency against its six major counterparts, at 103.5, just off its five-month trough of 103.21 reached last Tuesday, Reuters reported.

Currency markets have undergone a shift in recent months, as traders re-evaluate their initial expectations that Trump's economic policies would both support the dollar and cause other currencies to weaken.

In fact the reverse has happened, and analysts at Societe Generale said on Monday that they had changed their currency forecasts "to reflect Germany's planned fiscal changes, the US economy's self-inflicted (relative) fragility, and Japan’s escape from deflation".

They see the euro at $1.13 by year-end and the yen at 139 per dollar.