Saudi Efforts to Protect Oil Producers from Shrinking Global Economic Growth

An Aramco facility (Asharq Al-Awsat)
An Aramco facility (Asharq Al-Awsat)
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Saudi Efforts to Protect Oil Producers from Shrinking Global Economic Growth

An Aramco facility (Asharq Al-Awsat)
An Aramco facility (Asharq Al-Awsat)

The Saudi government's voluntarily reducing its output to nine million barrels per day (bpd) represents significant to support the global market and protect producers and consumers, economic analysts told Asharq Al-Awsat.

The experts emphasized the importance of a unified OPEC+ decision and the voluntary production decline in line with the capabilities of many oil-producing countries.

- Market protection

Advisor and international law professor Osama al-Obaidi told Asharq Al-Awsat that the decision of the OPEC+ group seeks to protect price stability from severe fluctuations that harm producers and consumers alike.

Obaidi said the decision limits the contraction of global economic growth, noting that the extreme price fluctuation leads to a decline in oil production efficiency and consumption.

The expert noted that OPEC+ countries needed to defend their market share and achieve stability.

- Global Economy

Obaidi said that the OPEC+ policy, led by Saudi Arabia, balanced international markets and enhanced the stability of the global economy.

Saudi Arabia's efforts are essential to eliminate extreme fluctuations in the oil market to prevent a decline in global demand and support market stability and balance, said Obaidi.

He indicated that the Kingdom, with its voluntary reduction with the member states of OPEC+, succeeded in reducing price fluctuations and ensured the availability of sufficient supplies to global markets.

- Distributive justice

Economist Fahd bin Jumaa noted that appointing impartial bodies to monitor OPEC+ production is an advanced and unprecedented step that achieves fair distribution of production lines and determines the reduction transparently.

Bin Juma told Asharq Al-Awsat that Saudi Arabia's reduction of its production by one million bpd starting next July confirms the correct outlook for global markets to maintain oil stability.

- Precautionary efforts

An official source in the Saudi Ministry of Energy said that after the OPEC+ meeting, the Kingdom would implement an additional voluntary cut in its crude oil production, amounting to one million bpd, starting in July for a month that can be extended.

The Saudi production will become nine million bpd, and the Kingdom's total voluntary cut will be 1.5 million bpd.

The source explained that the Kingdom's additional voluntary cut reinforces the precautionary efforts made by OPEC Plus countries to support the stability and balance of oil markets.

In addition to extending the existing OPEC+ cuts of 3.66 million bpd, the group also agreed to reduce overall production targets from January 2024 by a further 1.4 million bpd versus current targets to a combined 40.46 million bpd.



Dollar Resumes Upward Trend, Euro Hits Lowest since Nov 2022

US Dollar and Euro banknotes are seen in this illustration taken July 17, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo
US Dollar and Euro banknotes are seen in this illustration taken July 17, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo
TT

Dollar Resumes Upward Trend, Euro Hits Lowest since Nov 2022

US Dollar and Euro banknotes are seen in this illustration taken July 17, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo
US Dollar and Euro banknotes are seen in this illustration taken July 17, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo

The dollar hit new multi-month highs against the euro and the pound on Thursday, the first day of 2025 trading, as it built on last year's strong gains on expectations US interest rates will remain high relative to peers.

The euro fell to as low as $1.0314, its lowest since November 2022, down around 0.3% on the day. It is now down nearly 8% since its late September highs above $1.12, one major victim of the dollar's recent surge.

Traders anticipate deep interest rate cuts from the European Central Bank in 2025, with markets pricing in at least four 25 basis point cuts, while not being certain of even two such moves from the US Federal Reserve, Reuters reported.

The dollar was hitting milestones across the board and the pound was last down 0.65% at $1.2443, its lowest since April, with its fall accelerating after it broke through resistance around $1.2475.

"It's more of the same at the start of the new calendar year with the dollar continuing to extend its advances in anticipation of Trump putting in place friendly policies at the start of his term," said Lee Hardman, senior currency analyst at MUFG.

US President-elect Donald Trump's policies are widely expected to not only boost growth but also add to upward price pressure. That will lead to a Fed cautious about cutting rates too much further, in turn underpinning US Treasury yields and boost dollar demand.

A weaker growth outlook outside the US, conflict in the Middle East and the Russia-Ukraine war have also added to demand for the dollar.

The dollar also reversed an early loss on Thursday to climb against the Japanese yen, and was last up 0.17% at 157.26.

It reached a five-month high above 158 yen in late December, potentially putting pressure on the Bank of Japan, which is expected to raise interest rates early this year, but possibly not immediately.

"If dollar/yen were to break above 160 ahead of the next BOJ meeting, that could be a catalyst for the BOJ to hike in January rather than wait until March," said Hardman.

"Though for now markets are leaning towards March after the dovish comments from (governor Kazuo) Ueda at his last press conference."

Even those who are more cautious about sustained dollar strength think it could take a long time to play out.

"The dollar may be vulnerable – but only if the US data confound market expectations that the Fed doesn’t cut rates more than once in the first half of this year, and not by more than 50bp in the whole of 2025," said Kit Juckes chief FX strategist at Societe Generale in a note.

"There's a good chance of that happening, but it seems very unlikely that cracks in US growth will appear early in the year – hence my preference for taking any bearish dollar thoughts with me into hibernation until the weather improves."

China's yuan languished at 14-month lows as worries about the health of the world's second-biggest economy, the prospect of US import tariffs from the Trump administration and sliding local yields weighed on investor sentiment.

Elsewhere, the Swiss franc, another victim of the recent dollar strength, gave back early gains to last trade flat at 0.90755 per dollar.

The Australian and New Zealand dollars, however, managed to break away from two-year lows touched on Tuesday. The Aussie was 0.36% higher at $0.6215 having dropped 9% in 2024, its weakest yearly performance since 2018.

The kiwi rose 0.47% to $0.5614.