Saudi Efforts to Protect Oil Producers from Shrinking Global Economic Growth

An Aramco facility (Asharq Al-Awsat)
An Aramco facility (Asharq Al-Awsat)
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Saudi Efforts to Protect Oil Producers from Shrinking Global Economic Growth

An Aramco facility (Asharq Al-Awsat)
An Aramco facility (Asharq Al-Awsat)

The Saudi government's voluntarily reducing its output to nine million barrels per day (bpd) represents significant to support the global market and protect producers and consumers, economic analysts told Asharq Al-Awsat.

The experts emphasized the importance of a unified OPEC+ decision and the voluntary production decline in line with the capabilities of many oil-producing countries.

- Market protection

Advisor and international law professor Osama al-Obaidi told Asharq Al-Awsat that the decision of the OPEC+ group seeks to protect price stability from severe fluctuations that harm producers and consumers alike.

Obaidi said the decision limits the contraction of global economic growth, noting that the extreme price fluctuation leads to a decline in oil production efficiency and consumption.

The expert noted that OPEC+ countries needed to defend their market share and achieve stability.

- Global Economy

Obaidi said that the OPEC+ policy, led by Saudi Arabia, balanced international markets and enhanced the stability of the global economy.

Saudi Arabia's efforts are essential to eliminate extreme fluctuations in the oil market to prevent a decline in global demand and support market stability and balance, said Obaidi.

He indicated that the Kingdom, with its voluntary reduction with the member states of OPEC+, succeeded in reducing price fluctuations and ensured the availability of sufficient supplies to global markets.

- Distributive justice

Economist Fahd bin Jumaa noted that appointing impartial bodies to monitor OPEC+ production is an advanced and unprecedented step that achieves fair distribution of production lines and determines the reduction transparently.

Bin Juma told Asharq Al-Awsat that Saudi Arabia's reduction of its production by one million bpd starting next July confirms the correct outlook for global markets to maintain oil stability.

- Precautionary efforts

An official source in the Saudi Ministry of Energy said that after the OPEC+ meeting, the Kingdom would implement an additional voluntary cut in its crude oil production, amounting to one million bpd, starting in July for a month that can be extended.

The Saudi production will become nine million bpd, and the Kingdom's total voluntary cut will be 1.5 million bpd.

The source explained that the Kingdom's additional voluntary cut reinforces the precautionary efforts made by OPEC Plus countries to support the stability and balance of oil markets.

In addition to extending the existing OPEC+ cuts of 3.66 million bpd, the group also agreed to reduce overall production targets from January 2024 by a further 1.4 million bpd versus current targets to a combined 40.46 million bpd.



Oil Prices Steady as Markets Weigh Demand against US Inventories

FILE - Pump jacks extract oil from beneath the ground in North Dakota, May 19, 2021. (AP Photo/Matthew Brown, File)
FILE - Pump jacks extract oil from beneath the ground in North Dakota, May 19, 2021. (AP Photo/Matthew Brown, File)
TT

Oil Prices Steady as Markets Weigh Demand against US Inventories

FILE - Pump jacks extract oil from beneath the ground in North Dakota, May 19, 2021. (AP Photo/Matthew Brown, File)
FILE - Pump jacks extract oil from beneath the ground in North Dakota, May 19, 2021. (AP Photo/Matthew Brown, File)

Oil prices were little changed on Thursday as investors weighed firm winter fuel demand expectations against large US fuel inventories and macroeconomic concerns.

Brent crude futures were down 3 cents at $76.13 a barrel by 1003 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate crude futures dipped 10 cents to $73.22.

Both benchmarks fell more than 1% on Wednesday as a stronger dollar and a bigger than expected rise in US fuel stockpiles pressured prices.

"The oil market is still grappling with opposite forces - seasonal demand to support the bulls and macro data that supports a stronger US dollar in the medium term ... that can put a ceiling to prevent the bulls from advancing further," said OANDA senior market analyst Kelvin Wong.

JPMorgan analysts expect oil demand for January to expand by 1.4 million barrels per day (bpd) year on year to 101.4 million bpd, primarily driven by increased use of heating fuels in the Northern Hemisphere.

"Global oil demand is expected to remain strong throughout January, fuelled by colder than normal winter conditions that are boosting heating fuel consumption, as well as an earlier onset of travel activities in China for the Lunar New Year holidays," the analysts said.

The market structure in Brent futures is also indicating that traders are becoming more concerned about supply tightening at the same time demand is increasing.

The premium of the front-month Brent contract over the six-month contract reached its widest since August on Wednesday. A widening of this backwardation, when futures for prompt delivery are higher than for later delivery, typically indicates that supply is declining or demand is increasing.

Nevertheless, official Energy Information Administration (EIA) data showed rising gasoline and distillates stockpiles in the United States last week.

The dollar strengthened further on Thursday, underpinned by rising Treasury yields ahead of US President-elect Donald Trump's entrance into the White House on Jan. 20.

Looking ahead, WTI crude oil is expected to oscillate within a range of $67.55 to $77.95 into February as the market awaits more clarity on Trump's administration policies and fresh fiscal stimulus measures out of China, OANDA's Wong said.