Oil Climbs with Tight Supply Back in Focus

FILE PHOTO: Drilling rigs operate in the Permian Basin oil and natural gas production area in Lea County, New Mexico, US, February 10, 2019. REUTERS/Nick Oxford/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: Drilling rigs operate in the Permian Basin oil and natural gas production area in Lea County, New Mexico, US, February 10, 2019. REUTERS/Nick Oxford/File Photo
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Oil Climbs with Tight Supply Back in Focus

FILE PHOTO: Drilling rigs operate in the Permian Basin oil and natural gas production area in Lea County, New Mexico, US, February 10, 2019. REUTERS/Nick Oxford/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: Drilling rigs operate in the Permian Basin oil and natural gas production area in Lea County, New Mexico, US, February 10, 2019. REUTERS/Nick Oxford/File Photo

Oil prices rose on Monday as investors focused on a tighter supply outlook after Moscow issued a temporary ban on fuel exports while remaining wary of further rate hikes that could dampen demand.

Brent crude futures climbed 32 cents, or 0.3%, to $93.59 a barrel by 0434 GMT after settling 3 cents lower on Friday.

US West Texas Intermediate crude futures extended gains for a second session, trading at $90.27 a barrel, up 24 cents, or 0.2%.

"Crude oil prices have started the week on the front foot, as the market continues to digest Russia's temporary ban on diesel and gasoline exports, into an already tight market, offset with the Fed's hawkish message that rates will stay higher for longer," IG Markets analyst Tony Sycamore said.

Both contracts fell last week, snapping a three-week winning streak, after a hawkish Federal Reserve stance rattled global financial sectors and raised oil demand concerns, Reuters reported.

Prices had rallied more than 10% in the previous three weeks on forecasts of a wide crude supply deficit in the fourth quarter after Saudi Arabia and Russia extended additional supply cuts to the end of the year.

Last week, Moscow temporarily banned gasoline and diesel exports to most countries in order to stabilize the domestic market, fanning concerns of low products supply especially for heating oil as the Northern Hemisphere heads into winter.

"The Russian fuel export ban news appears to be priced in for the time being but the undercurrent of global oil supply tightness runs deep, with an intense focus on diesel shortages and fears over unanticipated LNG supply disruptions likely to persist, especially in the European markets," said Vandana Hari, founder of oil market analysis provider Vanda Insights.

In the United States, the number of operating oil rigs fell by eight to 507 last week, their lowest since February 2022, despite higher prices, a weekly report from Baker Hughes showed on Friday.

Expectations of better economic data this week from China, the world's largest crude importer, also lifted sentiment. However, analysts flagged that oil prices face technical resistance at the November 2022 highs that were hit last week.

China's manufacturing sector is expected to return to expansion mode in September, with the purchasing manufacturing index forecast to rise above 50 for the first time since March, Goldman Sachs analysts said.

In a positive sign, China's oil demand increased 0.3 million barrels per day (bpd) to 16.3 million bpd last week, partly due to a gradual recovery in jet fuel demand for international flights, they added.



Russia's Central Bank Holds Off on Interest Rate Hike

People skate at an ice rink installed at the Red Square decorated for the New Year and Christmas festivities, with the St. Basil's Cathedral, left, and the Kremlin, right, in the background in Moscow, Russia, Friday, Dec. 20, 2024. (AP Photo/Alexander Zemlianichenko)
People skate at an ice rink installed at the Red Square decorated for the New Year and Christmas festivities, with the St. Basil's Cathedral, left, and the Kremlin, right, in the background in Moscow, Russia, Friday, Dec. 20, 2024. (AP Photo/Alexander Zemlianichenko)
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Russia's Central Bank Holds Off on Interest Rate Hike

People skate at an ice rink installed at the Red Square decorated for the New Year and Christmas festivities, with the St. Basil's Cathedral, left, and the Kremlin, right, in the background in Moscow, Russia, Friday, Dec. 20, 2024. (AP Photo/Alexander Zemlianichenko)
People skate at an ice rink installed at the Red Square decorated for the New Year and Christmas festivities, with the St. Basil's Cathedral, left, and the Kremlin, right, in the background in Moscow, Russia, Friday, Dec. 20, 2024. (AP Photo/Alexander Zemlianichenko)

Russia's central bank has left its benchmark interest rate at 21%, holding off on further increases as it struggles to snuff out inflation fueled by the government's spending on the war against Ukraine.
The decision comes amid criticism from influential business figures, including tycoons close to the Kremlin, that high rates are putting the brakes on business activity and the economy.
According to The Associated Press, the central bank said in a statement that credit conditions had tightened “more than envisaged” by the October rate hike that brought the benchmark to its current record level.
The bank said it would assess the need for any future increases at its next meeting and that inflation was expected to fall to an annual 4% next year from its current 9.5%
Factories are running three shifts making everything from vehicles to clothing for the military, while a labor shortage is driving up wages and fat enlistment bonuses are putting more rubles in people's bank accounts to spend. All that is driving up prices.
On top of that, the weakening Russian ruble raises the prices of imported goods like cars and consumer electronics from China, which has become Russia's biggest trade partner since Western sanctions disrupted economic relations with Europe and the US.
High rates can dampen inflation but also make it more expensive for businesses to get the credit they need to operate and invest.
Critics of the central bank rates and its Governor Elvira Nabiullina have included Sergei Chemezov, the head of state-controlled defense and technology conglomerate Rostec, and steel magnate Alexei Mordashov.
Russian President Vladimir Putin opened his annual news conference on Thursday by saying the economy is on track to grow by nearly 4% this year and that while inflation is “an alarming sign," wages have risen at the same rate and that "on the whole, this situation is stable and secure.”
He acknowledged there had been criticism of the central bank, saying that “some experts believe that the Central Bank could have been more effective and could have started using certain instruments earlier.”
Nabiullina said in November that while the economy is growing, “the rise in prices for the vast majority of goods and services shows that demand is outrunning the expansion of economic capacity and the economy’s potential.”
Russia's military spending is enabled by oil exports, which have shifted from Europe to new customers in India and China who aren't observing sanctions such as a $60 per barrel price cap on Russian oil sales.