‘Fertile Ground’: Baghdad Sees Timid Revival with Investment Drive

Workers rehabilitate a road as part of public works on the outskirts of Baghdad on September 15, 2023. (AFP)
Workers rehabilitate a road as part of public works on the outskirts of Baghdad on September 15, 2023. (AFP)
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‘Fertile Ground’: Baghdad Sees Timid Revival with Investment Drive

Workers rehabilitate a road as part of public works on the outskirts of Baghdad on September 15, 2023. (AFP)
Workers rehabilitate a road as part of public works on the outskirts of Baghdad on September 15, 2023. (AFP)

On a summer evening, Iraqis smoke shisha and go bowling at a sprawling riverside complex in Baghdad, one of the many new investments reviving the capital after decades of turmoil.

"Iraq is fertile ground for investments," said Falah Hassan, the executive director of the complex of restaurants and shops built on the grounds of one of Saddam Hussein's former palaces and named after the famed "One Thousand and One Nights" folktales.

In oil-rich Iraq, the fragile stability since the defeat of the ISIS group in 2017 has paved the way for a building boom in a city that in recent years has mainly made headlines for wars and bloody violence.

Since taking office in October, Iraq's Prime Minister Mohamed Shia al-Sudani has sought to rehabilitate Baghdad's infrastructure, much of which has been left dilapidated by conflict and neglect.

But a World Bank report in July said investors were still hesitant to put their money in Iraq, citing a "lack of business-friendly legislation, a volatile security environment, administrative inefficiencies, and systemic corruption".

Hassan acknowledged investors still faced numerous obstacles, including "the security situation" and "bureaucracy".

"You have to go through 1,000 counters to get a single permit," he said, noting the new "1,001 Nights Park" complex perched on Baghdad's Tigris river was opened in late 2022 by "young investors".

'Epidemic of corruption'

This is a reality authorities say they are committed to changing to attract investors.

In late August, Sudani attended the groundbreaking ceremony for a luxury hotel and residential complex, the first major Qatari investment in Baghdad.

"From the prime minister to the lowest-ranking official, we will stand alongside investors and the private sector to carry out projects in Baghdad and the provinces," the Iraqi leader said.

At the United Nations General Assembly last week, Sudani said "our top priority is the fight against the epidemic of corruption".

But experts say dirty money is behind many of the new developments seen in Baghdad.

"In recent years, Iraq's political elite and their business associates have preferred to invest their wealth in local projects as a safe haven for ill-gotten gains," wrote Hayder al-Shakeri in a piece for the Institute of Regional and International Studies at American University of Iraq, Sulaimani.

"In part to disguise the origins of their illegally obtained funds, the political elite have allegedly taken to investing in upscale residential compounds, malls, private universities, and other real estate ventures, resulting in a 'visible boom' in Baghdad's development," he added.

In less than a year, Sudani has undertaken work to provide improved water and electricity services to Baghdad's informal neighborhoods, construct bridges and redesign the streets of one of the Arab world's most populous cities.

In the 2023-2025 budget passed this year, annual investment expenses are set to hit $37 billion -- three times the amount in 2022, the World Bank reported.

These generous allocations are made possible by Iraq's tremendous oil wealth and foreign reserves, which amount to more than $100 billion.

'No water, no electricity'

In the neighborhood of Kufa on Baghdad's outskirts, a bulldozer digs up the road to install pipes, while a dump truck removes the rubble.

A special unit is working to rehabilitate the many informal neighborhoods of Baghdad "deprived of services for more than 20 years", said Abdel Razzak Abd Mhessein, the project's head engineer.

The unit is made up of people from various ministries, state-owned enterprises as well as engineers from the army and paramilitary network, the Popular Mobilization Forces.

"We have a budget of about 200 billion dinars ($150 million) for infrastructure work for water, sewer systems and more," the engineer told AFP.

"There are more than 1,093 informal neighborhoods in Baghdad -- a plan has been prepared to gradually carry out work there," he added.

The public's reaction to the work so far has been mixed.

"This is what we dreamed of. Paved roads, and services," said Abu Ali al-Bahadli, a 55-year-old day laborer.

"Before, we couldn't go out when it rained. The road was muddy and the sewers overflowed."

His neighbor, Ahmed Radi, is more skeptical, noting work on his street had not brought him adequate electricity or running water.

"Tell me, which official would accept staying even an hour without water," said the 45-year-old civil servant.

"When will they install pavements? Storm water drains?" he asked.

"We come home tired from work. There's no water, no electricity. For how much longer?"



After Trump’s Victory, Arab Demands for Competitive Advantages Due to Regional Tensions

Donald Trump addresses his supporters at the West Palm Beach Convention Center in Florida on Wednesday. (EPA)
Donald Trump addresses his supporters at the West Palm Beach Convention Center in Florida on Wednesday. (EPA)
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After Trump’s Victory, Arab Demands for Competitive Advantages Due to Regional Tensions

Donald Trump addresses his supporters at the West Palm Beach Convention Center in Florida on Wednesday. (EPA)
Donald Trump addresses his supporters at the West Palm Beach Convention Center in Florida on Wednesday. (EPA)

With the election of Donald Trump as US president, the global economy has gained direction for the coming years. Trump’s policies favor corporate tax cuts, increased investment, and expansionary monetary policies. He also promotes local production to boost job creation, which involves imposing significant tariffs on trade partners, particularly in Asia. This approach could trigger a trade war, affecting inflation in both the US and worldwide.

The US economy is already grappling with high prices, slower economic growth, and rising unemployment, alongside a national debt nearing 99% of GDP. This backdrop underscores the importance of economic issues in the recent election.

For the new US administration, domestic concerns will not be the sole priority. Ongoing geopolitical tensions, especially recent Middle Eastern conflicts, will also impact the US economy. To gain regional insights, Asharq Al-Awsat consulted economists from various Arab nations on their expectations and requests from the US president regarding the Middle East.

Priority of Regional Stability

Dr. Mohamed Youssef, an Egyptian economist, emphasized that regional stability is crucial, benefiting the economy and paving the way for resolving complex issues like the Nile Dam dispute affecting Egypt. He highlighted the American role in fostering calm in the region.

Iraqi economist Durgham Mohamed Ali noted that US relations vary across the Middle East; while Lebanon and Yemen remain outside current US alliances, Sudan and Somalia require international aid to rebuild infrastructure.

Competitive Advantage for Arab Countries

Ahmed Moaty, a global markets expert from Egypt, suggested that reduced US tariffs would improve Arab economies’ competitiveness. However, he pointed out the American high debt could motivate the administration to impose tariffs to protect local industries and reduce imports. Ali observed that US tariffs are interest-driven and selective, favoring allies like Japan, Taiwan, and South Korea while being stringent toward BRICS members, such as China, Brazil, and South Africa. He linked tariff policies to regional geopolitics, especially the conflicts involving Israel, Lebanon, Palestine, and Iran, which could influence US economic decisions.

Dr. Mohamed Youssef also argued that easing US-China competition could benefit the global economy, as high tariffs on Chinese goods reduce China’s growth, decreasing demand for key commodities like oil.

Ibrahim Al-Nwaibet, CEO of Saudi Arabia’s Value Capital, predicted that a Republican win could positively impact oil and interest rates, revitalizing the petrochemical and trade finance sectors.

On currency, Moaty noted the strong US dollar pressures emerging markets, especially in the Middle East. He suggested offering US Treasury bonds with higher yields to Arab countries as a counterbalance. Ali added that the dollar’s strength poses challenges for countries heavily reliant on US currency amid global liquidity shortages.

The BRICS Bloc

Ali also mentioned the high levels of US debt, explaining: “In general, the entire world is concerned about rising US debt, slowing growth rates... and is wary of the BRICS alliance, which some Arab countries hope to join. The question remains whether a cold economic war will ensue.”

Youssef also discussed the BRICS, which could play a role in attracting the new US president’s attention to countries joining the alliance. He added: “This may provide new competitive advantages for countries in the region, particularly as countries like Egypt, the UAE, and Iran recently joined BRICS, while Saudi Arabia is still evaluating the benefits of such move.”