IMF Raises Turkish Economic Growth Forecast to 4%

Shoppers in a market in Istanbul. (AP)
Shoppers in a market in Istanbul. (AP)
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IMF Raises Turkish Economic Growth Forecast to 4%

Shoppers in a market in Istanbul. (AP)
Shoppers in a market in Istanbul. (AP)

The International Monetary Fund and the World Bank have revised upward their economic growth forecasts for Türkiye despite the earthquake that hit the country on 6 February.

The IMF announced that growth is projected to be 4 percent in 2023 and 3¼ percent in 2024. “Sequential inflation should also fall in 2024 and is projected at 46 percent year-on-year by December.”

James P. Walsh, who led a staff team from the IMF in a visit to Türkiye last month, said in a statement on Saturday that “Despite the tragic earthquakes in February, growth has remained resilient.”

Two days ago, the WB revised its economic growth forecast for Türkiye for this year upward from a previous 3.2 percent to 4.2 percent.

In its Europe and Central Asia Economic Update report, the bank forecasts the Turkish economy to expand by 3.1 percent next year and 3.9 percent in 2025, a downward revision from its previous estimates of 4.3 percent and 4.1 percent, respectively, in June.

Last week, credit ratings agency Standard & Poor's (S&P) affirmed Türkiye's credit rating at B and revised its outlook from "negative" to "stable."

It also forecasts Türkiye's GDP to grow to 3.5%, and to 2.3% in 2024.

The Turkish economy is projected to grow 4% next year, 4.5% in 2025, and 5% in 2026, according to the government's medium-term economic program released last month.

Türkiye's year-end inflation rate is expected to come in at 65% this year, 33% next year, 15.2% in 2025, and 8.5% in 2026, according to the program.

In Sep., the Central Bank raised the interest rate to 30%.

Governor of the Turkish Central Bank Hafize Gaye Erkan confirmed during the Planning and Budget Commission of Parliament meeting on Wednesday that “At this point, the objective should be to steadfastly continue the process of disinflation while not deviating from the growth composition necessary for sustainable growth.”

Türkiye’s annual consumer price inflation climbed to 61.53% in September 2023.

Erkan noted that the central bank reserves increased by 27 billion dollars in four months and reached $125.5 billion.



Gold Tumbles Below $5,000, Dragging other Metals Lower

Gold and silver ingots at the Austrian "Ogussa" factory in Vienna (Reuters)
Gold and silver ingots at the Austrian "Ogussa" factory in Vienna (Reuters)
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Gold Tumbles Below $5,000, Dragging other Metals Lower

Gold and silver ingots at the Austrian "Ogussa" factory in Vienna (Reuters)
Gold and silver ingots at the Austrian "Ogussa" factory in Vienna (Reuters)

Gold prices tumbled by more than 7% to break below the $5,000 mark on Friday as the dollar strengthened on the imminent appointment of a new US Federal Reserve Chair, though the safe-haven metal remained set for its biggest monthly gain since 1999 after chalking up multiple record peaks.

Other precious metals also dropped sharply as profit-taking kicked in, said Reuters.

Spot gold lost 7.5% to $4,992.05 an ounce by 0947 GMT. US gold futures for February delivery fell 6.4% to $4,985.

Gold scaled ‌a record peak ‌of $5,594.82 on Thursday and is still on ‌track ⁠for a more ‌than 15% gain this month, heading for a sixth straight monthly gain and largest since 1999.

"I still believe several gold-supportive drivers remain in place, but after the strong rally in recent weeks a consolidation is healthy," said UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo, adding that the likely nomination of a new Fed chair is applying immediate pressure on prices. US President Donald Trump said on Thursday ⁠that he will reveal his pick for the next Fed chair on Friday, with former ‌Fed Governor Kevin Warsh seen as a frontrunner. ‍Warsh has pushed for a smaller ‍Fed balance sheet, contrasting with Trump's inclination towards looser monetary policy.

The US ‍dollar rose on Friday, clawing back some of this week's slide to a four-year low. A stronger US currency makes dollar-priced gold more expensive for overseas buyers. Physical gold premiums in India rose to their highest in more than a decade on strong investment demand ahead of a likely duty increase. Premiums in China jumped after a pickup in investment and ⁠jewelry demand.

"We see gold dipping far lower than today but see a recovery and an average of $5,375 for 2026, reaching a peak of $6,400 during the fourth quarter," said independent analyst Ross Norman.

Among other precious metals, spot silver was down 14.1% at $99.77 an ounce after hitting a record $121.64 on Thursday. The metal has surged 42% this month, on track for its best monthly performance.

"Although a significant part of the move in the rise in silver has been based upon sound fundamentals, there was clearly a speculative excess within the market and I think that's getting blown off," Norman added.

Spot platinum lost ‌15.7% to $2,216.55 an ounce after hitting a record high of $2,918.80 on Monday. Palladium, meanwhile, plunged 13.4% to $1,737.50.


US Futures Fall and World Shares are Mixed as Markets Await Trump's Word on Replacing Fed Chief

People trade on their smartphones inside the Taiwan Stock Exchange office in Taipei, Taiwan, 05 January 2026.   EPA/RITCHIE B. TONGO
People trade on their smartphones inside the Taiwan Stock Exchange office in Taipei, Taiwan, 05 January 2026. EPA/RITCHIE B. TONGO
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US Futures Fall and World Shares are Mixed as Markets Await Trump's Word on Replacing Fed Chief

People trade on their smartphones inside the Taiwan Stock Exchange office in Taipei, Taiwan, 05 January 2026.   EPA/RITCHIE B. TONGO
People trade on their smartphones inside the Taiwan Stock Exchange office in Taipei, Taiwan, 05 January 2026. EPA/RITCHIE B. TONGO

US futures dropped while European shares opened higher on Friday after markets retreated in Asia ahead of a possible announcement by US President Donald Trump on his nominee to replace Jerome Powell as chair of the Federal Reserve.

Oil prices dropped and the prices of gold and silver weakened.

The future for the S&P 500 sank 0.8% while that for the Dow Jones Industrial Average was 0.7% lower, The Associated Press said.

Trump chose Powell to lead the US central bank in 2017 but has relentlessly assailed him for not cutting interest rates as quickly as the president would like. The appointment to replace him must be confirmed by the Senate.

In early European trading, Germany's DAX picked up 0.8% to 24,506.41, while the CAC 40 in Paris advanced 0.4% to 8,107.50. Britain's FTSE 100 edged 0.2% higher, to 10,189.05.

The CEO of Indonesia's stock market, Imam Rachman, resigned Friday “As part of a commitment toward recent market conditions,” the exchange said in an announcement.

Jakarta's benchmark gained 1.2% following news of his resignation. It had been trading at all-time highs but sank 7.4% on Wednesday and 1.1% on Thursday after MSCI, a US provider of global equity, fixed income and real estate indices, warned about market risks such as a lack of transparency.

Chinese markets retreated, with the Hang Seng in Hong Kong shedding 2.1% to 27,387.11. Shares in major ports operator CK Hutchison Holdings dropped 4.6% after Panama’s Supreme Court ruled that the concession held by a subsidiary to operate ports at either end of the Panama Canal was unconstitutional.

That advanced a US effort to block any influence by China over the strategic waterway.

The Shanghai Composite index slipped 1% to 4,117.95.

Tokyo's Nikkei 225 fell back, losing 0.1% to 53,322.85 as stocks related to artificial intelligence declined. Testing equipment maker Advantest lost 4.5% and computer chip equipment maker Disco Corp. lost 1.7%.

South Korea's Kospi gave up most of its gains late in the session, edging just 0.1% higher to 5,224.36 after the Yonhap News Agency reported that a first day of talks with US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick aimed at resolving trade tensions had not yielded an agreement. The talks are due to continue Friday.

Earlier this week, President Donald Trump said he planned to raise tariffs on South Korean exports if the US ally did not swiftly ratify a trade agreement worked out months ago.

In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 declined 0.7% to 8,869.10.

Taiwan's benchmark lost 1.5%, while India's Sensex fell 0.3%.

On Thursday, US stocks finished with relatively modest moves.

The S&P 500 slipped 0.1% after flirting with its record high in the morning and dropping by as much as 1.5% later in the day. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.1% and the Nasdaq composite fell 0.7%.

Investors will likely focus on the Fed and who is to lead it, though earnings are also a major driver of market activity this week. Companies are under pressure to deliver solid growth in profits following record-setting runs for their stock prices.

In other dealings early Friday, the price of gold slipped 5% after it rallied briefly to nearly $5,600 on Thursday. Gold’s price topped $5,000 for the first time just this week.

Silver, which has been zooming higher in its own feverish run, tumbled 11%.

Prices for precious metals have been surging as investors look for safer investments while weighing a wide range of risks, including a US stock market that critics say is expensive, political instability, threats of tariffs and heavy debt loads for governments worldwide.

The US dollar has seen its value sink over the last year because of many of the same risks that drove gold’s price higher. Early Friday, the dollar was trading at 154.14 Japanese yen, up from 153.09 yen. The euro slipped to $1.1922 from $1.1971.

Oil prices slipped after jumping more than 3% on Thursday due to worries about tensions between the United States and Iran, which could ultimately constrict the flow of crude. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth warned the US military “will be prepared to deliver whatever the president expects,” just a day after President Donald Trump told Iran to “make a deal” on its nuclear program.

US benchmark crude oil lost 59 cents to $64.83 per barrel. Brent crude, the international standard, shed 61 cents to $68.98 per barrel.


Jazan Port: Saudi Arabia’s Strategic Gateway to Horn of Africa

A vessel carrying an export shipment departs Jazan Port (SPA). 
A vessel carrying an export shipment departs Jazan Port (SPA). 
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Jazan Port: Saudi Arabia’s Strategic Gateway to Horn of Africa

A vessel carrying an export shipment departs Jazan Port (SPA). 
A vessel carrying an export shipment departs Jazan Port (SPA). 

Saudi Arabia is accelerating efforts to transform Jazan Port in the Kingdom’s south from a regional maritime hub into a global logistics artery linking continents.

Through coordinated initiatives led by relevant authorities, the Kingdom is leveraging the port’s unique strategic location, not only as one of its most successful national projects but also as a key economic gateway to the Horn of Africa and global markets.

By redesigning import and export procedures and removing barriers facing investors, Saudi Arabia is laying the cornerstone for a new phase of trade flows extending from its economic core to distant international markets.

The Horn of Africa includes Somalia, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Djibouti, Kenya and Sudan, whose proximity to Jazan Port on the Red Sea strengthens its role as a strategic link between Saudi Arabia and African markets.

The Jazan region’s geographic closeness to the Horn of Africa also helps attract high-quality investments, particularly with the establishment of special economic zones aimed at boosting exports of agricultural, fisheries and other products.

Mohammed Mudhafar, head of the Environment, Water and Agriculture Sector Committee at the Jazan Chamber of Commerce, said the committee is working with relevant authorities to remove obstacles and facilitate import and export operations at the port. He noted that differences in decisions among multiple agencies had created challenges for investors.

Among the main obstacles, Mudhafar said, was the 21-day quarantine imposed on imported livestock at Jazan, which increased costs for companies and pushed them toward other ports.

He said this constraint was removed after coordination with the Ministry of Environment, Water and Agriculture and the National Center for Plant Pest and Animal Disease Prevention and Control (Wiqaa).

He added that coordinated efforts among government entities have helped resolve these issues, encourage investors and streamline trade flows through Jazan Port.

From the private sector perspective, Khaled Al-Nashiri, head of Khaled Al-Nashiri Trading Company, said the port has become a major commercial gateway to the Horn of Africa.

He pointed to clearer investment strategies, simplified procedures, direct communication with investors, and improved infrastructure and warehouse facilities.

He added that strong government support has facilitated import and export operations, driving rising demand following initial shipments of Saudi-made flour, food products and animal feed to Horn of Africa countries.

Once a key gateway in the 1980s and 1990s, Jazan Port is now re-emerging with greater capacity and organization, positioning itself as a major hub for trade in the coming years.