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IMF Raises Turkish Economic Growth Forecast to 4%

Shoppers in a market in Istanbul. (AP)
Shoppers in a market in Istanbul. (AP)
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IMF Raises Turkish Economic Growth Forecast to 4%

Shoppers in a market in Istanbul. (AP)
Shoppers in a market in Istanbul. (AP)

The International Monetary Fund and the World Bank have revised upward their economic growth forecasts for Türkiye despite the earthquake that hit the country on 6 February.

The IMF announced that growth is projected to be 4 percent in 2023 and 3¼ percent in 2024. “Sequential inflation should also fall in 2024 and is projected at 46 percent year-on-year by December.”

James P. Walsh, who led a staff team from the IMF in a visit to Türkiye last month, said in a statement on Saturday that “Despite the tragic earthquakes in February, growth has remained resilient.”

Two days ago, the WB revised its economic growth forecast for Türkiye for this year upward from a previous 3.2 percent to 4.2 percent.

In its Europe and Central Asia Economic Update report, the bank forecasts the Turkish economy to expand by 3.1 percent next year and 3.9 percent in 2025, a downward revision from its previous estimates of 4.3 percent and 4.1 percent, respectively, in June.

Last week, credit ratings agency Standard & Poor's (S&P) affirmed Türkiye's credit rating at B and revised its outlook from "negative" to "stable."

It also forecasts Türkiye's GDP to grow to 3.5%, and to 2.3% in 2024.

The Turkish economy is projected to grow 4% next year, 4.5% in 2025, and 5% in 2026, according to the government's medium-term economic program released last month.

Türkiye's year-end inflation rate is expected to come in at 65% this year, 33% next year, 15.2% in 2025, and 8.5% in 2026, according to the program.

In Sep., the Central Bank raised the interest rate to 30%.

Governor of the Turkish Central Bank Hafize Gaye Erkan confirmed during the Planning and Budget Commission of Parliament meeting on Wednesday that “At this point, the objective should be to steadfastly continue the process of disinflation while not deviating from the growth composition necessary for sustainable growth.”

Türkiye’s annual consumer price inflation climbed to 61.53% in September 2023.

Erkan noted that the central bank reserves increased by 27 billion dollars in four months and reached $125.5 billion.

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Business

Japan Sets $19 Billion Business Target in Central Asia

TOKYO, JAPAN - DECEMBER 20: Japan's Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, Kazakhstan's President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, Tajikistan's President Emomali Rahmon, Turkmenistan's President Serdar Berdimuhamedov, Kyrgyzstan's President Sadyr Zhaparov, and Uzbekistan’s President Shavkat Mirziyoyev attend the leaders-level "Central Asia plus Japan" Dialogue (CA+JAD) summit, in Tokyo, Japan, on December 20, 2025. David MAREUIL/Pool via REUTERS
TOKYO, JAPAN - DECEMBER 20: Japan's Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, Kazakhstan's President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, Tajikistan's President Emomali Rahmon, Turkmenistan's President Serdar Berdimuhamedov, Kyrgyzstan's President Sadyr Zhaparov, and Uzbekistan’s President Shavkat Mirziyoyev attend the leaders-level "Central Asia plus Japan" Dialogue (CA+JAD) summit, in Tokyo, Japan, on December 20, 2025. David MAREUIL/Pool via REUTERS
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Japan Sets $19 Billion Business Target in Central Asia

TOKYO, JAPAN - DECEMBER 20: Japan's Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, Kazakhstan's President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, Tajikistan's President Emomali Rahmon, Turkmenistan's President Serdar Berdimuhamedov, Kyrgyzstan's President Sadyr Zhaparov, and Uzbekistan’s President Shavkat Mirziyoyev attend the leaders-level "Central Asia plus Japan" Dialogue (CA+JAD) summit, in Tokyo, Japan, on December 20, 2025. David MAREUIL/Pool via REUTERS
TOKYO, JAPAN - DECEMBER 20: Japan's Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, Kazakhstan's President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, Tajikistan's President Emomali Rahmon, Turkmenistan's President Serdar Berdimuhamedov, Kyrgyzstan's President Sadyr Zhaparov, and Uzbekistan’s President Shavkat Mirziyoyev attend the leaders-level "Central Asia plus Japan" Dialogue (CA+JAD) summit, in Tokyo, Japan, on December 20, 2025. David MAREUIL/Pool via REUTERS

Japan unveiled a five-year goal on Saturday for business projects totalling $19 billion in Central Asia as Tokyo vies for influence in the resource-rich region.

The announcement came after Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi hosted an inaugural summit with the leaders of five Central Asia nations -- Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan -- in Tokyo.

Japan "set a new target of business projects at a total amount of 3 trillion yen in 5 years in Central Asia", a joint statement said after Takaichi wrapped up her meeting with the five leaders.

Like the United States and the European Union, Japan is drawn by the region's enormous, but still mostly unexploited, natural resources in a push to diversify rare earths supplies and reduce dependence on China, AFP reported.

"It is important for Central Asia, blessed with abundant resources and energy sources, to expand its access to international markets," the statement said.

The leaders agreed to promote cooperation that can help the "strengthening of critical minerals supply chains", while also pledging to achieve economic growth and decarbonisation.

They also held separate summits with Russia's Vladimir Putin, China's Xi Jinping and EU chief Ursula von der Leyen this year.

The summit was seen as important for Japan to increase its presence in the region, said Tomohiko Uyama, a professor at Hokkaido University specializing in Central Asian politics.

"Natural resources have become a strong focus, particularly in the past year, because of China's moves involving rare earths," Uyama told AFP on Friday, referring to tight export controls introduced by Beijing this year.

The leaders agreed on Saturday to expand cooperation regarding "Trans-Caspian International Transport Route", a logistics network connecting to Europe without passing through Russia.

Efforts towards "safe, secure, and trustworthy Artificial Intelligence" were also agreed.

Tokyo has long encouraged Japanese businesses to invest in the region, although they remain cautious.

Xi visited Astana in June, and China -- which shares borders with Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan -- has presented itself as a main commercial partner, investing in huge infrastructure projects.

The former Soviet republics still see Moscow as a strategic partner but have been spooked by Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

Other than rare earths, Kazakhstan is the world's largest uranium producer, Uzbekistan has giant gold reserves and Turkmenistan is rich in gas.

Mountainous Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan are also opening up new mineral deposits.

However, exploiting those reserves remains complicated in the harsh and remote terrains of the impoverished states.

Business

World Bank Approves $700 Million for Pakistan's Economic Stability

A view of traffic circulating amid dense fog in Islamabad, Pakistan, 18 December 2025. EPA/SOHAIL SHAHZAD
A view of traffic circulating amid dense fog in Islamabad, Pakistan, 18 December 2025. EPA/SOHAIL SHAHZAD
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World Bank Approves $700 Million for Pakistan's Economic Stability

A view of traffic circulating amid dense fog in Islamabad, Pakistan, 18 December 2025. EPA/SOHAIL SHAHZAD
A view of traffic circulating amid dense fog in Islamabad, Pakistan, 18 December 2025. EPA/SOHAIL SHAHZAD

The World Bank said on Friday that it has approved $700 million in financing for Pakistan under a multi-year initiative aimed at supporting the country's macroeconomic stability and service delivery.

The funds will be released under the bank's Public Resources for Inclusive Development - Multiphase Programmatic ⁠Approach (PRID-MPA), which could provide up to $1.35 billion in total financing, the lender said. Of this amount, $600 million will go for federal programs and $100 million will ⁠support a provincial program in the southern Sindh province.

The approval follows a $47.9 million World Bank grant in August to improve primary education in Pakistan's most populous Punjab province.

In November, an IMF-World Bank report, uploaded by Pakistan's finance ministry, said Pakistan's fragmented ⁠regulation, opaque budgeting and political capture are curbing investment and weakening revenue. Regional tensions may surface over international financing for Pakistan.

In May, Reuters reported that India would oppose World Bank funding for Pakistan, citing a senior government source in New Delhi.

Business

Oil Set for Second Straight Weekly Decline on Supply Outlook

A view of an oil pump jack on the prairies near Claresholm, Alberta, Canada January 18, 2025. REUTERS/Todd Korol
A view of an oil pump jack on the prairies near Claresholm, Alberta, Canada January 18, 2025. REUTERS/Todd Korol
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Oil Set for Second Straight Weekly Decline on Supply Outlook

A view of an oil pump jack on the prairies near Claresholm, Alberta, Canada January 18, 2025. REUTERS/Todd Korol
A view of an oil pump jack on the prairies near Claresholm, Alberta, Canada January 18, 2025. REUTERS/Todd Korol

Oil prices rose on Friday but were poised for a second straight weekly decline as a potential supply glut and prospects of a Russia-Ukraine peace deal limited gains driven by concerns over disruptions from a blockade of Venezuelan tankers.

Brent crude futures were up 52 cents, or 0.87%, at $60.34 a barrel by ‌1357 GMT ‌while US West Texas Intermediate crude ‌rose ⁠51 ​cents, ‌or 0.9%, to $56.66.

On a weekly basis, the Brent and WTI benchmarks were down 1.3% and 1.4% respectively, according to Reuters.

"That we're ⁠staying down at these levels indicates that the market is awash with ‌oil right now," said Ole Hansen, ‍head of commodity strategy at ‍Saxo Bank. "There's enough oil to mitigate any disruptions."

Uncertainty over ‍how the US would enforce President Donald Trump's intent to block sanctioned tankers from entering and leaving Venezuela tempered geopolitical risk premiums, IG analyst Tony Sycamore said.

Venezuela, which pumps about 1% ​of global oil supplies, on Thursday authorised two unsanctioned cargoes to set sail for China, said two ⁠sources familiar with Venezuela's oil export operations.

Optimism over a potential US-led Ukraine peace deal also eased supply risk concerns, Sycamore said.

However, Bank of America analysts said they expect lower oil prices to curb supply, which could stop prices from going into freefall.

Investors also watched developments in Russia's war in Ukraine after Kyiv ramped up attacks on Russia's energy infrastructure. Ukraine struck a "shadow fleet" oil tanker in the Mediterranean Sea with aerial drones for the first time, ‌a Ukrainian official said on Friday.