Gold Scales 3-month Peak as Middle East Conflict Lifts Demand

FILE PHOTO: A man cuts open the bag after he bought 50 gram gold bars as an investment in Beijing, China, August 5, 2019. REUTERS/Jason Lee/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: A man cuts open the bag after he bought 50 gram gold bars as an investment in Beijing, China, August 5, 2019. REUTERS/Jason Lee/File Photo
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Gold Scales 3-month Peak as Middle East Conflict Lifts Demand

FILE PHOTO: A man cuts open the bag after he bought 50 gram gold bars as an investment in Beijing, China, August 5, 2019. REUTERS/Jason Lee/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: A man cuts open the bag after he bought 50 gram gold bars as an investment in Beijing, China, August 5, 2019. REUTERS/Jason Lee/File Photo

Gold prices hit a three-month high on Friday and were set for a second straight weekly gain, with demand bolstered by the Middle East conflict and expectations that the Federal Reserve's rate hikes are nearing an end.

Spot gold was up 0.2% at $1,978.19 per ounce by 0542 GMT, after hitting its highest since July 20. US gold futures added 0.5% to $1,989.90.

"There is fear that it's (Israel-Hamas war) going to escalate into something of a broader regional crisis, potentially a protracted conflict... So we are seeing investors positioning in safe havens," said Kyle Rodda, financial market analyst at Capital.com.

Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant told troops gathered at the Gaza border on Thursday that they would soon see the Palestinian enclave "from inside," implying that an expected ground invasion to annihilate Hamas could be nearing.

Gold, often used as a safe store of value during times of political and financial uncertainty, has risen 2.4% this week.

"Gold prices were supported as fears of another Fed rate hike in 2023 subside. We remain neutral towards gold prices for 2023, expecting prices to average $1,950/oz," Fitch Solutions said in a note.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell in his remarks to the Economic Club of New York agreed "in principle" that the rise in yields was helping to further tighten financial conditions and "at the margin" might lessen the need for additional rate increases.

Higher interest rates raise the opportunity cost of holding gold.
Markets are widely expecting the Fed to keep interest rates on hold at its policy meeting next month, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

Spot gold is expected to extend gains into a range of $1,998-$2,010 per ounce, as it has broken a resistance at $1,972, according to Reuters technical analyst Wang Tao.

Spot silver fell 0.4% to $22.94 per ounce, but was headed for a second weekly rise. Platinum eased 0.3% to $888.34 and palladium gained 0.1% to $1,114.53.



Inflation Rose to 2.3% in Europe. That Won't Stop the Central Bank from Cutting Interest Rates

A view shows the Bercy Economy and Finance Ministry as a metro operated by the Paris transport network RATP passes over the Pont de Bercy bridge in Paris, France, November 28, 2024. REUTERS/Stephanie Lecocq
A view shows the Bercy Economy and Finance Ministry as a metro operated by the Paris transport network RATP passes over the Pont de Bercy bridge in Paris, France, November 28, 2024. REUTERS/Stephanie Lecocq
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Inflation Rose to 2.3% in Europe. That Won't Stop the Central Bank from Cutting Interest Rates

A view shows the Bercy Economy and Finance Ministry as a metro operated by the Paris transport network RATP passes over the Pont de Bercy bridge in Paris, France, November 28, 2024. REUTERS/Stephanie Lecocq
A view shows the Bercy Economy and Finance Ministry as a metro operated by the Paris transport network RATP passes over the Pont de Bercy bridge in Paris, France, November 28, 2024. REUTERS/Stephanie Lecocq

Inflation in the 20 countries that use the euro currency rose in November — but that likely won’t stop the European Central Bank from cutting interest rates as the prospect of new US tariffs from the incoming Trump administration adds to the gloom over weak growth.
The European Union’s harmonized index of consumer prices stood up 2.3% in the year to November, up from 2.0% in October, the EU statistics agency Eurostat reported Friday.
Energy prices fell 1.9% from a year ago, but that was offset by price increases of 3.9% in the services sector, a broad category including haircuts, medical treatment, hotels and restaurants, and sports and entertainment, The Associated Press reported.
Inflation has come down a long way from the peak of 10.6% in October 2022 as the ECB quickly raised rates to cool off price rises. It then started cutting them in June as worries about growth came into sharper focus.
High central bank benchmark rates combat inflation by influencing borrowing costs throughout the economy. Higher rates make buying things on credit — whether a car, a house or a new factory — more expensive and thus reduce demand for goods and take pressure off prices. However, higher rates can also dampen growth.
Growth worries got new emphasis after surveys of purchasing managers compiled by S&P Global showed the eurozone economy was contracting in October. On top of that come concerns about how US trade policy under incoming President Donald Trump, including possible new tariffs, or import taxes on imported goods, might affect Europe’s export-dependent economy. Trump takes office Jan. 20.
The eurozone’s economic output is expected to grow 0.8% for all of this year and 1.3% next year, according to the European Commission’s most recent forecast.
All that has meant the discussion about the Dec. 12 ECB meeting has focused not on whether the Frankfurt-based bank’s rate council will cut rates, but by how much. Market discussion has included the possibility of a larger than usual half-point cut in the benchmark rate, currently 3.25%.
Inflation in Germany, the eurozone’s largest economy, held steady at 2.4%. That “will strengthen opposition against a 50 basis point cut,” said Carsten Brzeski, global chief of macro at ING bank, using financial jargon for a half-percentage-point cut.
The ECB sets interest rate policy for the European Union member countries that have joined the euro currency.