Türkiye's Inflation Ticks up to 62%

A woman shops at a street market in Istanbul, Türkiye, 04 December 2023. (EPA)
A woman shops at a street market in Istanbul, Türkiye, 04 December 2023. (EPA)
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Türkiye's Inflation Ticks up to 62%

A woman shops at a street market in Istanbul, Türkiye, 04 December 2023. (EPA)
A woman shops at a street market in Istanbul, Türkiye, 04 December 2023. (EPA)

Türkiye's annual inflation rate ticked up slightly in November, the state statistics agency said on Monday, showing further signs of levelling off following a series of sharp interest rate hikes.

The rate moved to 61.98 percent last month from 61.36 percent in October, the TUIK state statistics agency said.

The pace at which consumer prices are rising has started to ease, after six successive months of interest rate hikes took borrowing cost to 40 percent from 8.5 percent.

Analysts are penciling in a final rate hike of 2.5 percentage points at the central bank's next policy meeting on December 21.

The latest batch of data show higher borrowing costs starting to slow down consumption -- a key goal of the central bank.

Türkiye's gross domestic product rose by just 0.3 percent between July and September. It had risen by 3.3 between April and June.

"The central bank will welcome these figures as evidence that demand is cooling and inflation pressures continue to soften," said analyst Liam Peach of Capital Economics.

Reset will take time

"However, bringing inflation down to much lower levels will require monetary policy to remain tight for a prolonged period and we expect the central bank to leave interest rates unchanged throughout 2024," Peach said.

Signs of Türkiye's economy starting to emerge from crisis are starting to be noticed by foreign investors, who had pulled out of the market because of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's unpredictable past policies.

Analysts blame Erdogan for setting off the inflation spiral by forcing the nominally independent central bank to slash borrowing costs far below the rate at which prices were rising.

The official annual inflation rate peaked at 85.51 percent in October 2022.

Standard and Poor's revised Türkiye's long-term sovereign credit rating to positive from stable last month.

"Inflation appears to have peaked, albeit at elevated levels of over 60 percent," the ratings agency said.

But it also warned: "The policy reset will take at least two years to tame inflation."

Türkiye's central bank expects inflation to peak in May of next year at between 70 and 75 percent.



Oil Edges Up on Strong US GDP Data

A pumpjack brings oil to the surface in the Monterey Shale, California, US April 29, 2013. REUTERS/Lucy Nicholson/File Photo
A pumpjack brings oil to the surface in the Monterey Shale, California, US April 29, 2013. REUTERS/Lucy Nicholson/File Photo
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Oil Edges Up on Strong US GDP Data

A pumpjack brings oil to the surface in the Monterey Shale, California, US April 29, 2013. REUTERS/Lucy Nicholson/File Photo
A pumpjack brings oil to the surface in the Monterey Shale, California, US April 29, 2013. REUTERS/Lucy Nicholson/File Photo

Oil prices were up slightly on Friday on stronger-than-expected US economic data that raised investor expectations for increasing crude oil demand from the world's largest energy consumer.

But concerns about soft economic conditions in Asia's biggest economies, China and Japan, capped gains.

Brent crude futures for September rose 7 cents to $82.44 a barrel by 0014 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate crude for September increased 4 cents to $78.32 per barrel, Reuters reported.

In the second quarter, the US economy grew at a faster-than-expected annualised rate of 2.8% as consumers spent more and businesses increased investments, Commerce Department data showed. Economists polled by Reuters had predicted US gross domestic product would grow by 2.0% over the period.

At the same time, inflation pressures eased, which kept intact expectations that the Federal Reserve would move forward with a September interest rate cut. Lower interest rates tend to boost economic activity, which can spur oil demand.

Still, continued signs of trouble in parts of Asia limited oil price gains.

Core consumer prices in Japan's capital were up 2.2% in July from a year earlier, data showed on Friday, raising market expectations of an interest rate hike in the near term.

But an index that strips away energy costs, seen as a better gauge of underlying price trends, rose at the slowest annual pace in nearly two years, suggesting that price hikes are moderating due to soft consumption.

China, the world's biggest crude importer, surprised markets for a second time this week by conducting an unscheduled lending operation on Thursday at steeply lower rates, suggesting authorities are trying to provide heavier monetary stimulus to prop up the economy.