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OPEC Leaves Forecast for 2024 Oil-Demand Growth Unchanged

A model of an oil rig in front of the OPEC logo. (Reuters)
A model of an oil rig in front of the OPEC logo. (Reuters)
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OPEC Leaves Forecast for 2024 Oil-Demand Growth Unchanged

A model of an oil rig in front of the OPEC logo. (Reuters)
A model of an oil rig in front of the OPEC logo. (Reuters)

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) on Wednesday stuck to its forecast for relatively strong growth in global oil demand in 2024 and said 2025 will see a robust increase in oil use, led by China and the Middle East.
OPEC, in a monthly report, said world oil demand will rise by 1.85 million barrels per day in 2025. For 2024, OPEC saw demand growth of 2.25 million bpd, unchanged from last month.
In 2025, OPEC anticipates an increase in global economic growth to 2.8% from 2.6% this year in part because of interest rate cuts.
OPEC estimated the call on its crude at 28.5 million b/d for 2024 and 29 million b/d for 2025.
The report noted OPEC oil production rose slightly in December to 26.70 million bpd in comparison to 26.63 million bpd in the past month, according to secondary sources.
In terms of oil supply, the organization expected non-OPEC production to rise by 1.3 million bpd in both 2024 and 2025 to 70.4 million bpd and 71.7 million bpd, respectively.
At the same time, in 2023, oil production by countries outside of OPEC is estimated to have increased by 2.1 million barrels per day compared to the previous year, to 69.1 million barrels per day.
It forecast non-OPEC upstream investment to slightly drop to $473 billion in 2025 in comparison to 2024.

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Oil Extends Climb on Supply Fears, Trade War Concerns Cap Gains

FILE - Pump jacks extract oil from beneath the ground in North Dakota, May 19, 2021. (AP Photo/Matthew Brown, File)
FILE - Pump jacks extract oil from beneath the ground in North Dakota, May 19, 2021. (AP Photo/Matthew Brown, File)
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Oil Extends Climb on Supply Fears, Trade War Concerns Cap Gains

FILE - Pump jacks extract oil from beneath the ground in North Dakota, May 19, 2021. (AP Photo/Matthew Brown, File)
FILE - Pump jacks extract oil from beneath the ground in North Dakota, May 19, 2021. (AP Photo/Matthew Brown, File)

Oil prices inched higher on Tuesday after threats by US President Donald Trump to impose secondary tariffs on Russian crude and attack Iran, though worries about the impact of a trade war on global growth capped gains.

Brent futures rose 21 cents, or 0.3%, to $74.98 a barrel at 0645 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate crude futures climbed 22 cents, or 0.3%, to $71.70.

The contracts settled at five-week highs a day earlier.

"Near-term risks are skewed to the upside, with US threats of secondary tariffs on Russian and Iranian oil leading market participants to price for the risks of tighter oil supplies," said Yeap Jun Rong, market strategist at IG, Reuters reported.

However, broader themes still revolve around concerns of upcoming tariffs weighing on global demand, along with prospects of increased supply from OPEC+ and the US, said Yeap.

A Reuters poll of 49 economists and analysts in March projected that oil prices would remain under pressure this year from US tariffs and economic slowdowns in India and China, while OPEC+ increases supply.

Slower global growth would dent fuel demand, which might offset any reduction in supply due to Trump's threats.

After news of Trump's threats initially boosted prices on Monday, traders told Reuters they viewed the president's warnings to Russia, at least, as a bluff.

Trump, on Sunday, told NBC News that he was very angry with Russian President Vladimir Putin and would impose secondary tariffs of 25% to 50% on Russian oil buyers if Moscow tries to block efforts to end the war in Ukraine.

Tariffs on buyers of oil from Russia, the world's second largest oil exporter, would disrupt global supply and hurt Moscow's biggest customers, China and India.

Trump also threatened Iran with similar tariffs and bombings if Tehran did not reach an agreement with the White House over its nuclear program.

"For now, it appears to be just a threat to Russia and Iran. However, if it becomes a reality, it creates plenty of upside risk to the market given the significant oil export volumes from both countries," said ING commodities strategists on Tuesday.

The market will be watching for weekly inventory data from US industry group the American Petroleum Institute later on Tuesday, ahead of official statistics from the Energy Information Administration on Wednesday.

Five analysts surveyed by Reuters estimated on average that US crude inventories fell by about 2.1 million barrels in the week to March 28.