Air Freight Rates Rise Amid Red Sea Crisis

An employee checks freight at a ramp of Frankfurt airport, Germany, November 27, 2020. REUTERS/Ralph Orlowski/File Photo Acquire Licensing Rights
An employee checks freight at a ramp of Frankfurt airport, Germany, November 27, 2020. REUTERS/Ralph Orlowski/File Photo Acquire Licensing Rights
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Air Freight Rates Rise Amid Red Sea Crisis

An employee checks freight at a ramp of Frankfurt airport, Germany, November 27, 2020. REUTERS/Ralph Orlowski/File Photo Acquire Licensing Rights
An employee checks freight at a ramp of Frankfurt airport, Germany, November 27, 2020. REUTERS/Ralph Orlowski/File Photo Acquire Licensing Rights

Global air freight rates have climbed for the first time in seven weeks as attacks on Red Sea shipping prompt companies to secure costlier air cargo space.

The Baltic Air Freight Index, which shows general cargo weekly transactional rates across a number of routes, rose 6.4% in the week to Monday, price reporting agency TAC Index said, reversing declines since a mid-December seasonal peak.

Attacks by Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthi group on vessels in the Red Sea, launched to express solidarity with Palestinians in Gaza, have forced shippers to take longer routes that can add weeks to delivery times, Reuters reported.

"The increase is in line with expectations that rates may spike following disruption to ocean shipping in the Red Sea, though sources also point out that rates often rise in the run-up to Chinese New Year," TAC Index said.

Many factories in China close for the 8-day holiday which begins this year on Feb. 10 and companies push to get stock out to customers ahead of this.

Air freight rates out of Shanghai rose 8.8% week on week on Monday, led by big increases to Europe. Rates out of Hong Kong gained 5.9% and rates out of Southeast Asia jumped 10%.

The Red Sea, which leads to the Suez canal, lies on the key east-west trade route from Asia's manufacturing hubs to Europe and then on to the east coast of the Americas.

In recent weeks freight companies have been securing more air cargo space and some customers have begun shipping goods wholly or partially by air to avoid delays.

However air freight prices had remained relatively stable as the shipping crisis coincided with a post-Christmas lull in demand.



Despite Trump Pause, Overall US Tariff Rate at Highest in a Century

Trucks drive to unload cargo shipping containers as cranes and the Vincent Thomas Bridge stand on the horizon at the Port of Los Angeles in San Pedro, California on April 10, 2025. (Photo by Patrick T. Fallon / AFP)
Trucks drive to unload cargo shipping containers as cranes and the Vincent Thomas Bridge stand on the horizon at the Port of Los Angeles in San Pedro, California on April 10, 2025. (Photo by Patrick T. Fallon / AFP)
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Despite Trump Pause, Overall US Tariff Rate at Highest in a Century

Trucks drive to unload cargo shipping containers as cranes and the Vincent Thomas Bridge stand on the horizon at the Port of Los Angeles in San Pedro, California on April 10, 2025. (Photo by Patrick T. Fallon / AFP)
Trucks drive to unload cargo shipping containers as cranes and the Vincent Thomas Bridge stand on the horizon at the Port of Los Angeles in San Pedro, California on April 10, 2025. (Photo by Patrick T. Fallon / AFP)

US President Donald Trump's delay of steeper tariffs may have won brief respite on Wall Street, but analysts say his actions -- which hit China especially hard -- already bring the average US effective tariff rate to its highest in over a century.

Besides imposing sweeping new 10 percent tariffs on goods from most US trading partners, Trump has also unleashed steep duties on imports of steel, aluminum and autos since his White House return.

But on Wednesday, he backed off even higher rates on dozens of economies, including the European Union and Asian manufacturing hub Vietnam, following a sharp sell-off in US government bond markets -- though he doubled down on action against China.

Many goods from the world's second biggest economy now face levies of at least 145 percent -- the total additional figure Trump has imposed this year.

"The newly imposed tariffs now affect $2.4 trillion of US imports, or nearly 75 percent," said Erica York of the Tax Foundation.

"Compared to Trump's first term, this is a massive escalation, as his first tariffs affected about $380 billion of US imports or 15 percent," she told AFP.

'Highest since 1903'

Researchers from the Budget Lab at Yale University estimate that "consumers face an overall average effective tariff rate of 27 percent, the highest since 1903."

"This is only slightly different from where the effective rate was before the late-April 9 announcement," they added.

Even after accounting for consumption shifts, the average tariff rate will be 18.5 percent, the Budget Lab anticipates. This would be the highest since 1933.

Thibault Denamiel, a fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), estimates that the US tariff rate was 2.4 percent in December 2024 -- a figure which now stands north of 20 percent.

"That's mostly due to the fact that we still have a 125 percent tariff rate on China," he said, referring to the latest duty Trump imposed on Chinese goods.

The 125 percent tariff, which took effect Thursday, coupled with an earlier 20 percent over China's alleged role in the fentanyl supply chain, putting Trump's new tariffs targeting China this year to 145 percent.

Even a much lower tariff would significantly impact the world's biggest economy, Denamiel said, noting that China is the United States' third most important trading partner.

Analysts have also pointed out that Trump's actions marked the biggest tariff increase since the Smoot-Hawley Act of 1930, which deepened the Great Depression.

Shrinking imports

Trump has claimed the United States was "taking in almost $2 billion a day" from tariffs.

He has referred to them as a means to raise government revenue, boost the country's industrial sectors and to pressure other governments on US priorities.

But experts warn that prohibitively high duties on China will likely cause US imports from the country to contract.

With Chinese tariffs reaching punitive levels, even conservative estimates suggest that China's share of imports "should shrink dramatically," said JPMorgan chief US economist Michael Feroli in a recent note.

If this were to happen, York of the Tax Foundation added that imports from China would end up generating "very little tariff revenue."

"Overall, we estimate the tariffs and announced retaliation will shrink US GDP by 1.0 percent," she said.

With Trump's latest actions, Feroli expects "the drag from trade policy is likely to be somewhat less than before, and thus the prospect of a recession is a closer call."

"However, we still think a contraction in real activity later this year is more likely than not," he added.