IMF, Egypt Agree on ‘Main Policy Elements’ of Economic Reform Program 

Egyptians buy food at a popular market in Cairo, Egypt February 1, 2024. (Reuters)
Egyptians buy food at a popular market in Cairo, Egypt February 1, 2024. (Reuters)
TT

IMF, Egypt Agree on ‘Main Policy Elements’ of Economic Reform Program 

Egyptians buy food at a popular market in Cairo, Egypt February 1, 2024. (Reuters)
Egyptians buy food at a popular market in Cairo, Egypt February 1, 2024. (Reuters)

The International Monetary Fund said on Thursday it had agreed with Egypt on the key policy components of an economic reform program, in a further sign that a final deal to augment the country's $3 billion loan is nearing completion.

Ivanna Vladkova Hollar, the IMF mission chief for Egypt, said both sides had made "excellent progress" on the discussions of a comprehensive policy package that could kickstart long-delayed reviews of the country's economic reform program.

"To this end, the IMF team and the Egyptian authorities have agreed on the main policy elements of the program. The authorities expressed a strong commitment to act promptly on all critical aspects of Egypt's economic reform program," Hollar said in a statement.

Earlier on Thursday, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said the fund and Egypt were in the "very last stretch" of negotiations to increase the country's $3 billion program.

Egypt has been in talks for the last two weeks with the IMF to revive and expand the loan agreement, which was signed in December 2022.

IMF disbursements on the loan were put on hold last year after Egypt did not follow through on a pledge to let the Egyptian pound respond to market forces, and instead fixed it against the dollar in March.

The Egyptian pound, fixed at 30.85 to the dollar since then, has been trading on the black market as low as 71 pounds.

Hollar, who concluded a two-week visit to Cairo on Thursday, said discussions will continue virtually in the coming days to "identify the magnitude of additional support from the IMF and other bilateral and multilateral development partners needed to help close Egypt's increased financing gaps in the context of recent shocks."



China Launches Late Stimulus Push to Meet 2024 Growth Target

FILE PHOTO: A worker works on a building under construction in Beijing's Central Business District (CBD), China July 14, 2024. REUTERS/Tingshu Wang/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: A worker works on a building under construction in Beijing's Central Business District (CBD), China July 14, 2024. REUTERS/Tingshu Wang/File Photo
TT

China Launches Late Stimulus Push to Meet 2024 Growth Target

FILE PHOTO: A worker works on a building under construction in Beijing's Central Business District (CBD), China July 14, 2024. REUTERS/Tingshu Wang/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: A worker works on a building under construction in Beijing's Central Business District (CBD), China July 14, 2024. REUTERS/Tingshu Wang/File Photo

China's central bank on Friday lowered interest rates and injected liquidity into the banking system as Beijing assembled a last-ditch stimulus assault to pull economic growth back towards this year's roughly 5% target, Reuters reported.
More fiscal measures are expected to be announced before China's week-long holidays starting on Oct. 1, after a meeting of the Communist Party's top leaders showed an increased sense of urgency about mounting economic headwinds.
On the heels of the Politburo huddle, China plans to issue special sovereign bonds worth about 2 trillion yuan ($284.43 billion) this year as part of fresh fiscal stimulus, two sources with knowledge of the matter have told Reuters.
Capital Economics chief Asia Economist Mark Williams estimates the package "would lift annual output by 0.4% relative to what it would otherwise have been."
"It's late in the year, but a new package of this size that was implemented soon should be enough to deliver growth in line with the 'around 5%' target," he said.
Chinese stocks are on track for the best week since 2008 on stimulus expectations.
The world's second-largest economy faces strong deflationary pressures due to a sharp property market downturn and frail consumer confidence, which have exposed its over-reliance on exports in an increasingly tense global trade environment.
A wide range of economic data in recent months has missed forecasts, raising concerns among economists that the growth target was at risk and that a longer-term structural slowdown could be in play.
On Friday, data showed industrial profits swinging back to a sharp contraction in August.
"We believe the persistent growth weakness has hit policymakers' pain threshold," Goldman Sachs analysts said in a note.
As flagged on Tuesday by Governor Pan Gongsheng, the People's Bank of China on Friday trimmed the amount of cash that banks must hold as reserves, known as the reserve requirement ratio (RRR), by 50 basis points, the second such reduction this year.
The move is expected to release 1 trillion yuan ($142.5 billion) in liquidity into the banking system and was accompanied by a cut in the benchmark interest rate on seven-day reverse repurchase agreements by 20 bps to 1.50%. The cuts take effect on Friday and Pan, in rare forward-looking remarks, left the door open to another RRR reduction later this year.

Given weak credit demand from households and businesses, investors are more focused on the fiscal measures that are widely expected to be announced in coming days.
Reuters reported on Thursday that 1 trillion yuan due to be raised via special bonds will be used to increase subsidies for a consumer goods replacement program and for the upgrade of large-scale business equipment.
They will also be used to provide a monthly allowance of about 800 yuan, or $114, per child to all households with two or more children, excluding the first child.
China aims to raise another 1 trillion yuan via a separate special sovereign debt issuance to help local governments tackle their debt problems.
Bloomberg News reported on Thursday that China is also considering the injection up to 1 trillion yuan of capital into its biggest state banks.
Most of China's fiscal stimulus still goes into investment, but returns are dwindling and the spending has saddled local governments with $13 trillion in debt.
The looming fiscal measures would mark a slight shift towards stimulating consumption, a direction Beijing has said for more than a decade that it wants to take but has made little progress on.
China's household spending is less than 40% of annual economic output, some 20 percentage points below the global average. Investment, by comparison, is 20 points above but has been fueling much more debt than growth.
The politburo also pledged to stabilize the troubled real estate market, saying the government should expand a white list of housing projects that can receive further financing and revitalize idle land.
The September meeting is not usually a forum for discussing the economy, which suggests growing anxiety among officials.
"The 'shock and awe' strategy could be meant to jumpstart the markets and boost confidence," Nomura analysts said in a note.
"But eventually it is still necessary for Beijing to introduce well thought policies to address many of the deep-rooted problems, particularly regarding how to stabilize the property sector."