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Gold Set for Second Weekly Loss as Rate cut Expectations Dampen

Data showed that US producer prices increased more than expected in January- Reuters Graphics
Data showed that US producer prices increased more than expected in January- Reuters Graphics
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Gold Set for Second Weekly Loss as Rate cut Expectations Dampen

Data showed that US producer prices increased more than expected in January- Reuters Graphics
Data showed that US producer prices increased more than expected in January- Reuters Graphics

Gold ticked up on Friday but was on course for a second straight weekly fall after hot inflation data cooled prospects of early rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.

Spot gold was up 0.2% to $2,007.69 per ounce at 11:00 a.m. ET (1600 GMT), but has lost 1.8% for the week so far. US gold futures rose 0.3% to $2,020.00 per ounce.

The dollar index was up for the week so far, and the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield extended gains, making gold less attractive.

Data showed that US producer prices increased more than expected in January. Another report on Tuesday showed that US consumer prices rose more than expected last month, Reuters reported.

Even though gold is considered an inflation hedge, higher interest rates dim non-yielding bullion's appeal.

As the Fed is not likely to cut interest rates in March, gold will probably struggle to gain much above the $2,000 level, said Everett Millman, chief market analyst at Gainesville Coins

Economic growth in the US is fairly robust, indicating higher inflation, which is a headwind for gold and "I expect gold prices to further fall to $1,960s level," he added.

Traders have pushed back their expectations of a US interest rate cut from March to June. Markets are currently pricing a 73% chance of a cut in June, according to the CME Fed Watch Tool.

Fed Atlanta President Raphael Bostic said on Thursday that more time was needed to weigh the prospect of a rate cut.

On the physical front, gold premiums in India rose to more than four-month highs this week as demand picked up, with jewellers stocking up for the wedding season.

Spot platinum rose 0.5% to $902.55 per ounce, palladium was up 0.6% to $958.96, rose 11.3% for the week, and silver gained 1.2% higher at $23.18.

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China Energy Imports Drop in April Amid Iran War as Fuel Exports Hit Decade Low

Oil and gas tanks are seen at an oil warehouse at a port in Zhuhai, China October 22, 2018. REUTERS/Aly Song
Oil and gas tanks are seen at an oil warehouse at a port in Zhuhai, China October 22, 2018. REUTERS/Aly Song
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China Energy Imports Drop in April Amid Iran War as Fuel Exports Hit Decade Low

Oil and gas tanks are seen at an oil warehouse at a port in Zhuhai, China October 22, 2018. REUTERS/Aly Song
Oil and gas tanks are seen at an oil warehouse at a port in Zhuhai, China October 22, 2018. REUTERS/Aly Song

China's oil imports fell to the lowest level in almost four years in April as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz choked off supplies to the world's largest oil importer.

Crude oil imports fell 20% in April to 38.5 million metric tons compared to a year earlier, hitting their lowest level since July 2022, according to customs data released on Saturday.

China imports roughly half of its crude oil from the Middle East, where the closure of the strait has slashed the number of tankers ⁠carrying oil and ⁠refined products to the world.

Saturday's data from China does not distinguish between oil arriving by sea and oil coming in via pipeline. Data from ship-tracking firm Kpler, however, puts seaborne crude imports at 8.03 million barrels per day, also the lowest since July 2022, Reuters reported.

Despite the decline in imports, ⁠ship tracker Vortexa estimates crude inventories rose by 17 million barrels in April, although it said those would fall in May.

The disruption in the Middle East has led China to tightly manage exports of refined products such as gasoline or jet fuel to protect its domestic market.

That policy drove refined oil product exports for April down to their lowest in roughly a decade at 3.1 million tons, down by about a third since March.

This may still overestimate ⁠how ⁠much is going to customers in Asia and elsewhere because the data includes shipments to Hong Kong, typically a major destination for China's refined products and excluded from the export controls.

Natural gas imports also fell by 13% to 8.42 million tons, although the data does not separate seaborne liquefied natural gas (LNG) from gas piped overland. China imports significant quantities of LNG from the Middle East Gulf.

China's crude oil imports for the first four months of the year are still tracking 1.3% above last year's level at 185.3 million tons.

Business

Germany's March Exports Rose Despite Fall of Industrial Output

A general view of the Port of Hamburg, in Hamburg, Germany, October 9, 2023. REUTERS/Wolfgang Rattay
A general view of the Port of Hamburg, in Hamburg, Germany, October 9, 2023. REUTERS/Wolfgang Rattay
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Germany's March Exports Rose Despite Fall of Industrial Output

A general view of the Port of Hamburg, in Hamburg, Germany, October 9, 2023. REUTERS/Wolfgang Rattay
A general view of the Port of Hamburg, in Hamburg, Germany, October 9, 2023. REUTERS/Wolfgang Rattay

German exports rose unexpectedly in March, official data showed on Friday, lifted by higher demand from Europe, as industrial output fell despite a forecast rise, dampened by a drop in energy production.

German exports rose 0.5% in March over the previous month, boosted by an increase of 3.4% in shipments to other European Union countries, the federal statistics office said. Analysts polled by Reuters had expected a 1.7% decrease.

“The string of positive figures ⁠continues,” said VP Bank economist Thomas Gitzel, after the statistics office reported on Thursday higher-than-expected growth in March industrial orders.

The rise in new orders makes the drop of 0.7% in industrial production reported on Friday tolerable, he added.

Analysts polled by Reuters had expected a 0.5% increase.

The statistics office attributed the output decrease to a drop in energy production and in machinery and equipment manufacturing.

“These strong orders are expected to boost industrial production - and, by extension, exports - in the coming months,” Gitzel said, though he warned the well-being of German industry hinged on ⁠how much longer the Iran war will persist.

Sentiment indicators point to a second-quarter contraction in industrial output, because of high energy prices and supply bottlenecks resulting from the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, said Commerzbank analyst Joerg Kraemer.

A 7.9% month-on-month slump in exports to the United States in ⁠March also showed a clear drag on trade, added Gitzel.

The United States remains the biggest destination for German goods despite the slump, receiving shipments of German goods worth 11.2 billion euros in March.

Imports surged in ⁠March, rising 5.1% compared with expectations for an increase of only 0.8%.

Most imports came from China, accounting for goods worth 15.6 billion euros ($18.31 billion) and marking a 4.9% increase on ⁠the month.

As a result, the foreign trade surplus narrowed more than expected, to 14.3 billion euros ($16.80 billion), from 19.6 billion the month before.

Business

Asia Gets First Mexican Fuel Oil Cargo in 9 Months

FILE PHOTO: Oil tankers in the Singapore Strait in Singapore March 17, 2026. REUTERS/Edgar Su/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: Oil tankers in the Singapore Strait in Singapore March 17, 2026. REUTERS/Edgar Su/File Photo
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Asia Gets First Mexican Fuel Oil Cargo in 9 Months

FILE PHOTO: Oil tankers in the Singapore Strait in Singapore March 17, 2026. REUTERS/Edgar Su/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: Oil tankers in the Singapore Strait in Singapore March 17, 2026. REUTERS/Edgar Su/File Photo

Asia received its first fuel oil cargo from Mexico in nine months on Thursday, with more to follow, as higher Asian prices draw supply after the loss of Middle East cargoes due to the Iran war, according to industry sources and shipping data.

The incoming cargoes from Mexico will ease some concerns about declining inventories in Asia's trading and bunkering hub Singapore, after the Iran conflict choked off most fuel oil supplies from key exporters in the Middle East like Iraq and ⁠Kuwait via the Strait of Hormuz, according to Reuters.

Suezmax tanker Orion, carrying about 160,000 metric tons (1 million barrels) of Mexican high-sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) loaded from the Salina Cruz refinery on the Pacific coast, reached Singapore on May 7, according to traders and ship-tracking data from Kpler.

PMI, the trading arm of Mexican state energy company Pemex, offered another 150,000-ton HSFO cargo to Asia for June delivery via a tender that closed on May 6 with bids valid until May 8, a Singapore-based trader familiar with the matter said. PMI is expected to award the tender later on Friday.

Fuel oil traders said that strong Asian prices are pulling cargoes to Asia while there is ⁠excess supply in the Americas.

“Mexican fuel barrels have to search for more optimal economics due to an influx of Venezuelan oil into the US Gulf Coast,” said Emril Jamil, senior analyst for crude and fuel oil at LSEG.

Most of Mexico's fuel oil exports typically land in the US or the Caribbean Islands, Kpler data showed.

Neither Pemex nor its trading ⁠arm immediately responded to a request for comment.

Traders in Asia have been looking for more arbitrage supplies from the West after the Middle East supply disruption.

The arbitrage is open with front-month 380-cst HSFO East-West spread at near $60 a ton this week, ⁠more than double the level before the conflict, LSEG data showed.

The spread breached $80 a ton on March 9 following the Middle East war, the data showed, a level last seen in September 2019.

A wider East-West price ⁠spread, which measures the price difference between Asian fuel oil versus supply from the Americas and Europe, typically makes it more attractive for cargoes to be shipped from the West to Asia.