ECB Holds Rates at Record Highs, Signals Upcoming Cut

FILE PHOTO: The building of the European Central Bank (ECB) is seen amid a fog in Frankfurt, Germany December 15, 2022. REUTERS/Wolfgang Rattay/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: The building of the European Central Bank (ECB) is seen amid a fog in Frankfurt, Germany December 15, 2022. REUTERS/Wolfgang Rattay/File Photo
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ECB Holds Rates at Record Highs, Signals Upcoming Cut

FILE PHOTO: The building of the European Central Bank (ECB) is seen amid a fog in Frankfurt, Germany December 15, 2022. REUTERS/Wolfgang Rattay/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: The building of the European Central Bank (ECB) is seen amid a fog in Frankfurt, Germany December 15, 2022. REUTERS/Wolfgang Rattay/File Photo

The European Central Bank kept interest rates at record highs on Thursday but sent an even clearer signal that it may be preparing to cut them as euro zone inflation continues to fall.

The central bank for the 20 countries that share the euro currency kept its deposit rate at 4.0%, where it has been since September as part of a 1-1/2-year effort to rein in prices.

But, with inflation now close to the ECB's 2% target, bank lending at a standstill and the economy barely growing, the ECB dropped fresh hints about a possible cut at its next meeting.

"If the Governing Council’s updated assessment of the inflation outlook, the dynamics of underlying inflation and the strength of monetary policy transmission were to further increase its confidence that inflation is converging to the target in a sustained manner, it would be appropriate to reduce the current level of monetary policy restriction," the ECB said, Reuters reported.

ECB policymakers, including those who typically favour higher rates, have been lining up behind a rate reduction at their June 6 meeting, provided key indicators including wage growth and underlying inflation continue to moderate.

But that decision may now be complicated by uncertaintywhether the Federal Reserve will be able cut its own rates in June as US inflation stays stubbornly above its goal.

ECB President Christine Lagarde is likely to be asked about the central bank's plans for June and the possibility of a further cut in July at her regular news conference at 1245 GMT.

With Thursday's decision, the ECB also left the interest rate on its daily and weekly loans for banks at 4.75% and 4.50% respectively.

Banks have barely tapped these auctions for years as they still have plenty of cash from last decade's money-printing programs.



Saudi Transport, Logistics Sector Set for 10% Growth in Q2

An investor monitors a trading screen at the Saudi financial market in Riyadh. (AFP)
An investor monitors a trading screen at the Saudi financial market in Riyadh. (AFP)
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Saudi Transport, Logistics Sector Set for 10% Growth in Q2

An investor monitors a trading screen at the Saudi financial market in Riyadh. (AFP)
An investor monitors a trading screen at the Saudi financial market in Riyadh. (AFP)

As Saudi companies start reporting their Q2 financial results, experts are optimistic about the transport and logistics sector. They expect a 10% annual growth, with total net profits reaching around SAR 900 million ($240 million), driven by tourism and an economic corridor project.

In Q1, the seven listed transport and logistics companies in Saudi Arabia showed positive results, with combined profits increasing by 5.8% to SAR 818.7 million ($218 million) compared to the previous year.

Four companies reported profit growth, while three saw declines, including two with losses, according to Arbah Capital.

Al Rajhi Capital projects significant gains for Q2 compared to last year: Lumi Rental’s profits are expected to rise by 31% to SAR 65 million, SAL’s by 76% to SAR 192 million, and Theeb’s by 23% to SAR 37 million.

On the other hand, Aljazira Capital predicts a 13% decrease in Lumi Rental’s net profit to SAR 43 million, despite a 44% rise in revenue. This is due to higher operational costs post-IPO.

SAL’s annual profit is expected to grow by 76% to SAR 191.6 million, driven by a 29% increase in revenue and higher profit margins.

Aljazira Capital also expects a 2.8% drop in the sector’s net profit from Q1 due to lower profits for SAL and Seera, caused by reduced revenue and profit margins.

Mohammad Al Farraj, Head of Asset Management at Arbah Capital, told Asharq Al-Awsat that the sector’s continued profit growth is supported by seasonal factors like summer travel and higher demand for transport services.

He predicts Q2 profits will reach around SAR 900 million ($240 million), up 10% from Q1.

Al Farraj highlighted that the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC), linking India with the GCC and Europe, is expected to boost sector growth by improving trade and transport connections.

However, he warned that companies may still face challenges, including rising costs and workforce shortages.