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Safe-haven Gold Rises as Israeli Attack on Iran Raises Concerns of Wider Conflict

FILED - 16 March 2023, Bavaria, Munich: Gold bars and gold coins of different sizes lie in a safe on a table at the precious metal dealer Pro Aurum. Photo: Sven Hoppe/dpa
FILED - 16 March 2023, Bavaria, Munich: Gold bars and gold coins of different sizes lie in a safe on a table at the precious metal dealer Pro Aurum. Photo: Sven Hoppe/dpa
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Safe-haven Gold Rises as Israeli Attack on Iran Raises Concerns of Wider Conflict

FILED - 16 March 2023, Bavaria, Munich: Gold bars and gold coins of different sizes lie in a safe on a table at the precious metal dealer Pro Aurum. Photo: Sven Hoppe/dpa
FILED - 16 March 2023, Bavaria, Munich: Gold bars and gold coins of different sizes lie in a safe on a table at the precious metal dealer Pro Aurum. Photo: Sven Hoppe/dpa

Gold prices rose on Friday as risk aversion swept across financial markets following media reports on explosions in Iran, prompting fears of a wider regional conflict and increasing bullion's safe-haven appeal.
Spot gold rose 0.3% at $2,386.05 per ounce, as of 0429 GMT, after briefly jumping as high as $2,417.59 earlier in the session, not far from an all-time high of $2,431.29 hit last Friday. Bullion was set for a fifth straight weekly rise and has risen about 2% so far this week.
US gold futures rose 0.1% at $2,401.20, Reuters said.
The news of Israel's attacks on Iran today "is driving gold price attention in the Middle East which has been the sole thing keeping the gold price moving higher for weeks now. Market is now waiting for more information about the nature of the attack, and what the response would be," said Kyle Rodda, a financial market analyst at Capital.com.
"Gold is not a monetary policy trade at the moment, it's a geopolitics trade," Rodda said.
Israel has attacked Iran, three people familiar with the matter said, as Iranian state media reported early on Friday that its forces had destroyed drones, days after Iran launched a retaliatory drone strike on Israel.
Eventually, even if geopolitical risks subside, "Chinese gold reserve accumulation acts as the major catalyst. That is a process that seems to have scope for continuity, favoring gold's upside bias," Ilya Spivak, head of global macro at Tastylive said.
Meanwhile, Federal Reserve policymakers have gathered around the idea of keeping borrowing costs where they are until perhaps well into the year, given the slow and bumpy progress on inflation and a still-strong US economy.
Higher interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion.
Amongst other precious metals, spot silver rose 0.2% to $28.28 per ounce, and was set for a weekly gain.
Spot platinum rose 0.6% at $938.39, and palladium was steady at $1,023.09. Both sister metals were headed for a weekly decline.

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IMF Sees Steady Global Growth

FILED - 24 October 2024, US, Washington: The logo of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is seen on the facade of the conference building on Pennsylvania Street. Photo: Soeren Stache/dpa
FILED - 24 October 2024, US, Washington: The logo of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is seen on the facade of the conference building on Pennsylvania Street. Photo: Soeren Stache/dpa
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IMF Sees Steady Global Growth

FILED - 24 October 2024, US, Washington: The logo of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is seen on the facade of the conference building on Pennsylvania Street. Photo: Soeren Stache/dpa
FILED - 24 October 2024, US, Washington: The logo of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is seen on the facade of the conference building on Pennsylvania Street. Photo: Soeren Stache/dpa

The International Monetary Fund expects the world economy to grow a little faster and inflation to keep falling this year. But it warned that the outlook is clouded by President-elect Donald Trump’s promises to slash US taxes, impose tariffs on foreign goods, ease regulations on businesses and deport millions of immigrants working illegally in the United States.

The Washington-based lending agency expects the world economy to grow 3.3% this year and next, up from 3.2% in 2024. The growth is steady but unimpressive: From 2000 to 2019, the world economy grew faster – an average of 3.7% a year. The sluggish growth reflects the lingering effects of big global shocks, including the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

The IMF is a 191-nation lending organization that works to promote economic growth and financial stability and to reduce global poverty.

Global inflation, which had surged after the COVID-19 pandemic disrupted global supply chains and caused shortages and higher prices, is forecast to fall from 5.7% in 2024 to 4.2% this year and 3.5% in 2026.

But in a blog post that accompanied the release of the IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook report, the fund’s chief economist, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, wrote that the policies Trump has promised to introduce “are likely to push inflation higher in the near term,” The Associated Press reported.

Big tax cuts could overheat the US economy and inflation. Likewise, hefty tariffs on foreign products could at least temporarily push up prices and hurt exporting countries around the world. And mass deportations could cause restaurants, construction companies and other businesses to run short of workers, pushing up their costs and weighing on economic growth.

Gourinchas also wrote that Trump’s plans to slash regulations on business could “boost potential growth in the medium term if they remove red tape and stimulate innovation.’’ But he warned that “excessive deregulation could also weaken financial safeguards and increase financial vulnerabilities, putting the US economy on a dangerous boom-bust path.’’

Trump inherits a strong US economy. The IMF expects US growth to come in at 2.7% this year, a hefty half percentage point upgrade from the 2.2% it had forecast in October.

The American economy — the world's biggest — is proving resilient in the face of high interest rates, engineered by the Federal Reserve to fight inflation. The US is benefiting from a strong job market that gives consumers the confidence and financial wherewithal to keep spending, from strong gains in productivity and from an influx of immigrants that has eased labor shortages.

The US economy’s unexpectedly strong performance stands in sharp contrast to the advanced economies across the Atlantic Ocean. The IMF expects the 20 countries that share the euro currency to collectively grow just 1% this year, up from 0.8% in 2024 but down from the 1.2% it was expecting in October. “Headwinds,” Gourinchas wrote, “include weak momentum, especially in manufacturing, low consumer confidence, and the persistence of a negative energy price shock’’ caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

The Chinese economy, No. 2 in the world, is forecast to decelerate – from 4.8% last year to 4.6% in 2025 and 4.5% in 2026. A collapse in the Chinese housing market has undermined consumer confidence. If government doesn’t do enough to stimulate the economy with lower interest rates, stepped-up spending or tax cuts, China “is at risk of a debt-deflation stagnation trap,’’ Gourinchas warned, in which falling prices discourage consumers from spending (because they have an incentive to wait to get still better bargains) and make it more expensive for borrowers to repay loans.

The IMF forecasts came out a day after its sister agency, the World Bank, predicted global growth of 2.7% in 2025 and 2026, same as last year and 2023.

The bank, which makes loans and grants to poor countries, warned that the growth wasn’t sufficient to reduce poverty in low-income countries. The IMF’s global growth estimates tend to be higher than the World Bank’s because they give more weight to faster-growing developing countries.