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World Bank Explains to Asharq Al-Awsat Saudi Growth Forecast Surge for 2025

Roberta Gatti, Chief Economist for the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region at the World Bank (Asharq Al-Awsat)
Roberta Gatti, Chief Economist for the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region at the World Bank (Asharq Al-Awsat)
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World Bank Explains to Asharq Al-Awsat Saudi Growth Forecast Surge for 2025

Roberta Gatti, Chief Economist for the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region at the World Bank (Asharq Al-Awsat)
Roberta Gatti, Chief Economist for the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region at the World Bank (Asharq Al-Awsat)

The World Bank is forecasting a 5.9% growth for Saudi Arabia’s economy in 2025, surpassing previous estimates. This surge is fueled by heightened non-oil activities and anticipated increases in oil prices, as explained by Roberta Gatti, Chief Economist for the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region at the World Bank.

The bank now expects the Kingdom’s economy to expand by 5.9% next year, a significant increase from its earlier prediction of 4.2%. It also forecasts a 4.8% growth in the non-oil private sector in Saudi Arabia this year.

Speaking to Asharq Al-Awsat, Gatti explained that the higher forecast for Saudi Arabia’s economy next year relies on two main factors:

Firstly, boosting non-oil activities through loose fiscal policy, large investments (especially public ones), and strong private spending, all while keeping inflation low with generous subsidies.

Secondly, expecting a significant rise in oil production in 2025 due to current trends and extending oil production cuts until mid-2024, leading to a 5.9% GDP growth.

Economic Shocks and Debt Impact

Discussing a report about conflict and debt in the MENA region, Gatti highlighted how conflict exacerbates major weaknesses in the region, notably the surge in debt compared to GDP.

Over the past decade, most regional economies saw their debt levels rise, a trend accelerated by the pandemic.

By 2023, debt had climbed to 88% of GDP in oil-importing countries, up from 81% in 2013. Importantly, debt levels are much higher for oil-importing nations, averaging 88% of GDP in 2023 compared to 34% for oil-exporting ones.

Gatti stressed the importance of transparency in debt management, particularly for oil-importing nations. She also underscored the need to address off-budget expenditures, which are not officially recorded.

She warned that financial adjustments made to handle high interest payments might not fully tackle the increasing debt burdens resulting from off-budget spending. This is especially pertinent for oil-importing countries in the MENA region, Gatti noted.

Oil-exporting nations face the task of broadening their economic and financial sources due to shifts in global oil markets and rising demand for renewable energy.

Gatti explained that uncertainty in the MENA region, already higher than in other emerging markets and developing countries, intensified after October 7 (the start of the conflict between Israel and Hamas) and remains higher than in those regions.

While noting that the report assumes no escalation in conflict, she cautioned about its lasting effects.

As per Gatti, studies show that debt patterns after conflict differ from other disasters. Debt tends to rise after nearly any natural disaster, and GDP growth drops in the disaster year. But growth rebounds in the following years.

After armed conflict, debt spikes significantly, like in any disaster. However, economic recovery post-conflict doesn’t happen, meaning government actions after fighting may not boost economic growth. This means pre-existing debt vulnerabilities could worsen if conflict escalates in the Middle East and North Africa.

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World Bank Forecasts 4.3% Growth for Saudi Economy, Supported by Non-Oil Activities

The Saudi flag. Asharq Al-Awsat
The Saudi flag. Asharq Al-Awsat
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World Bank Forecasts 4.3% Growth for Saudi Economy, Supported by Non-Oil Activities

The Saudi flag. Asharq Al-Awsat
The Saudi flag. Asharq Al-Awsat

The World Bank affirmed on Thursday that Saudi Arabia's economy has gained significant momentum for 2026-2027, driven by robust non-oil sector expansion under Vision 2030.

In a report titled “The Gulf’s Digital Transformation: A Powerful Engine for Economic Diversification,” the World Bank said growth is expected to persist in the Kingdom with non-oil activities expanding by 4% on average.

The report lifted its forecast for Saudi Arabia’s real GDP growth to 3.8% in 2025 compared to a 3.2% last October.

The forecast represents a major upward revision affirming the resilience of the Saudi economy and its ability to absorb external volatility. It also indicates growing confidence in the effectiveness of ongoing structural reforms within Vision 2030.

On Tuesday, Saudi Arabia approved its state budget for 2026, projecting real GDP growth of 4.6% in 2026.

The report showed that in the Kingdom, economic momentum is strengthening across oil and non-oil sectors with non-oil activities expanding by 4% on average and oil activities expanding by 5.4%, bringing overall real growth to an average of 4.3%.

It said oil activities grew by 1.7% y/y in the first half of 2025, benefiting from the phase-out of OPEC+ voluntary production cuts starting in April 2025.

At the financial level, the fiscal deficit between 2025 and 2027 is projected to remain at an average of 3.8% of GDP.

Meanwhile, the current account balance slightly recovered, settling at 0.5% of GDP in the first quarter of 2025 against -2.6% in the second half of 2024.

The report said real GDP growth remained stable at 3.6% y/y in the first half of 2025, thanks to the stabilization of the oil sector and sustained non-oil growth.

Non-oil activities expanded by 4.8% over the period, in line with the performance of 2024 while non-oil growth was driven by the wholesale, retail trade, restaurants, and hotels sector (+7.5% y/y in the first half of 2025), consolidating the role of hospitality and tourism as engines of economic diversification.

The report also indicated that oil activities grew by 1.7% y/y in the first half of 2025, benefiting from the phase-out of OPEC+ voluntary production cuts starting in April 2025.

These trends are expected to persist in 2026-2027, with non-oil activities expanding by 4% on average and oil activities expanding by 5.4%, bringing overall real growth to an average of 4.3%.

Job Market and Inflation
The report said the labor market mirrors the stabilization of the real economy and is rapidly becoming more inclusive to women.

Overall unemployment decreased by 0.7 point between the first quarter of 2024 and the first quarter of 2025, with the female unemployment rate dropping from 11.8% to 8.1% over the same period.

Also, inflation remained low and stable in Saudi Arabia, settling at an average of 2.2% in the first half of 2025.

However, price increases have been concentrated in the housing and utilities sector as rental prices have become a key issue, largely because rental supply has failed to match demographic growth, especially in Riyadh.

While this reflects the government’s efforts to dynamize the Kingdom’s urban centers, the price increases prompted the government to freeze rental prices in Riyadh for the next five years, as anticipated increases in housing supply should help control rental prices.

Finally, the report said Saudi Arabia’s external position stabilized in the second half of 2024 and the first quarter of 2025.

Although net foreign direct investment has remained relatively stable, the World Bank has emphasized that recent changes in foreign ownership regulations in Saudi Arabia, coupled with continued structural reforms, are positive steps to attract greater flows of foreign direct investment (FDI).

Business

Visa Relocates European Headquarters to London's Canary Wharf

FILE PHOTO: A drone view of London's Canary Wharf financial district, two days before the government presents its critical pre-election budget, in London, Britain March 3, 2024. REUTERS/Yann Tessier/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: A drone view of London's Canary Wharf financial district, two days before the government presents its critical pre-election budget, in London, Britain March 3, 2024. REUTERS/Yann Tessier/File Photo
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Visa Relocates European Headquarters to London's Canary Wharf

FILE PHOTO: A drone view of London's Canary Wharf financial district, two days before the government presents its critical pre-election budget, in London, Britain March 3, 2024. REUTERS/Yann Tessier/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: A drone view of London's Canary Wharf financial district, two days before the government presents its critical pre-election budget, in London, Britain March 3, 2024. REUTERS/Yann Tessier/File Photo

Visa is relocating its European headquarters to London's Canary Wharf financial district, the Canary Wharf Group said on Friday.

The firm is leasing 300,000 square feet on a 15-year term at One Canada Square, and is set to relocate from Paddington in the summer of 2028, the group added.

Canary Wharf Group, which runs the wider financial district and is co-owned by QIA and Canada's Brookfield, was hit hard by the pandemic-induced fall in office demand.

The area is now enjoying a rebound as more firms push staff to return to office, Reuters reported.

"Canary Wharf continues to attract a diverse range of global businesses. We are delighted to welcome Visa who have chosen the Wharf for their European headquarters as the best location to support their business growth," Shobi Khan, Canary Wharf Group CEO, said.

JPMorgan Chase last week unveiled a plan to build a tower in the Canary Wharf financial district that will contribute 9.9 billion pounds ($13.2 billion) over six years to the local economy - including the cost of construction - and create 7,800 jobs.

Qatar's sovereign wealth fund is revising plans for a revamp of its HSBC skyscraper in the east London district to retain more office space, Reuters reported in November.

Business

World Bank Raises GCC Growth Forecast

GCC leaders and their representatives attend the 46th Gulf Summit held in the Bahraini capital (BNA) 
GCC leaders and their representatives attend the 46th Gulf Summit held in the Bahraini capital (BNA) 
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World Bank Raises GCC Growth Forecast

GCC leaders and their representatives attend the 46th Gulf Summit held in the Bahraini capital (BNA) 
GCC leaders and their representatives attend the 46th Gulf Summit held in the Bahraini capital (BNA) 

The World Bank has lifted its growth forecast for the Gulf Council Cooperation (GCC) to 4.5% for 2026, supported by structural reforms and rapid digital innovation.

A WB forecast issued in October had projected 4.4% growth for 2026.

In its latest edition of the Gulf Economic Update (GEU), the World Bank said economic growth across the Gulf council is gaining momentum in 2025.

It said GCC countries are going through rapid structural transformation to diversify their economies away from oil, where jobs are at the heart of national vision.

The GCC countries are also in a unique position to attract and retain talent equipped with digital skills to build, operate and sustain the large digital infrastructure investments made in Digital Public Infrastructure, cloud computing, data centers and AI.

In Bahrain, the report said the country continues to show robust growth, driven primarily by its non-oil sectors, notably financial services and tourism.

Investments in infrastructure, gas, logistics, financial technology, and tourism are expected to sustain medium-term growth.

However, the report showed that fiscal pressures persist due to high deficits and elevated public debt while the economy is expected to expand by 3.5% in 2025.

Kuwait is emerging from two challenging years marked by regional instability, subdued oil prices, and OPEC+ production cuts, according to the WB report.

After consecutive GDP contractions in 2023 and 2024, the economy is showing signs of recovery, with positive growth expected in 2025 and beyond, supported by higher oil exports.

The recent passage of a financing and liquidity law enabling government debt issuance is a positive step toward easing fiscal pressures, the report said, adding that the economy is expected to expand by 2.7% in 2025.

Oman, the WB report said, has accelerated its diversification efforts, with non-hydrocarbon sectors increasingly driving growth.

The economy is expected to expand by 3.1% in 2025, with further acceleration anticipated in the medium term.

As for Qatar, it maintains a steady growth trajectory, underpinned by strong non-oil sector performance and robust external surpluses despite lower hydrocarbon prices.

As a global leader in liquified natural gas (LNG) production, Qatar is set to significantly boost output through the North Field expansion, reinforcing its position in global LNG markets.

Fiscal and current account surpluses are expected to remain strong, supported by LNG expansion as real GDP growth is projected to reach 2.8% in 2025.

Saudi Arabia is experiencing renewed economic momentum, with both oil and non-oil sectors contributing to growth. Real GDP growth is expected to reach 3.8% in 2025.

The report noted that fiscal pressures have intensified due to subdued oil prices, resulting in a widening deficit.

The country is leveraging its low debt levels to access global capital markets, with recent borrowing raising the debt-to-GDP ratio to close to 32%.

Ongoing reforms under Vision 2030 and changes in foreign ownership regulations are expected to further attract investment.

Also, the WB said, the UAE continues to sustain economic dynamism and diversification, with real GDP growth projected to reach 4.8% in 2025.

The Emirates stands out for its diversified economy, with balanced growth between non-oil and oil sectors, it said, adding that it is also leading in diversifying its export base.

Gulf and AI

The report showed that all GCC countries have robust telecom networks, with 5G coverage exceeding 90% and widespread fiber connections.

It said significant investments in data centers and high-performance computing (HPC) systems, especially in Saudi Arabia and UAE, underpin the region’s digital economy and AI readiness.

“Diversification and digital transformation are no longer optional. They are essential for long-term stability and prosperity. Strategic investments in non-oil sectors and innovation will be critical to sustaining growth and stability,” said Safaa El Tayeb El Kogali, World Bank Division Director for the Gulf Cooperation Council.

“The GCC’s digital leap is remarkable. With robust infrastructure and growing computer power, skills and competencies in Artificial intelligence (AI) capabilities, the region is well-placed to lead in innovation, provided we address labor and environmental challenges proactively,” she added.

The report also showed that women’s participation in the fields of Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics (STEM) surpasses the global average, further reinforcing the region’s digital competitiveness.