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World Bank Explains to Asharq Al-Awsat Saudi Growth Forecast Surge for 2025

Roberta Gatti, Chief Economist for the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region at the World Bank (Asharq Al-Awsat)
Roberta Gatti, Chief Economist for the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region at the World Bank (Asharq Al-Awsat)
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World Bank Explains to Asharq Al-Awsat Saudi Growth Forecast Surge for 2025

Roberta Gatti, Chief Economist for the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region at the World Bank (Asharq Al-Awsat)
Roberta Gatti, Chief Economist for the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region at the World Bank (Asharq Al-Awsat)

The World Bank is forecasting a 5.9% growth for Saudi Arabia’s economy in 2025, surpassing previous estimates. This surge is fueled by heightened non-oil activities and anticipated increases in oil prices, as explained by Roberta Gatti, Chief Economist for the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region at the World Bank.

The bank now expects the Kingdom’s economy to expand by 5.9% next year, a significant increase from its earlier prediction of 4.2%. It also forecasts a 4.8% growth in the non-oil private sector in Saudi Arabia this year.

Speaking to Asharq Al-Awsat, Gatti explained that the higher forecast for Saudi Arabia’s economy next year relies on two main factors:

Firstly, boosting non-oil activities through loose fiscal policy, large investments (especially public ones), and strong private spending, all while keeping inflation low with generous subsidies.

Secondly, expecting a significant rise in oil production in 2025 due to current trends and extending oil production cuts until mid-2024, leading to a 5.9% GDP growth.

Economic Shocks and Debt Impact

Discussing a report about conflict and debt in the MENA region, Gatti highlighted how conflict exacerbates major weaknesses in the region, notably the surge in debt compared to GDP.

Over the past decade, most regional economies saw their debt levels rise, a trend accelerated by the pandemic.

By 2023, debt had climbed to 88% of GDP in oil-importing countries, up from 81% in 2013. Importantly, debt levels are much higher for oil-importing nations, averaging 88% of GDP in 2023 compared to 34% for oil-exporting ones.

Gatti stressed the importance of transparency in debt management, particularly for oil-importing nations. She also underscored the need to address off-budget expenditures, which are not officially recorded.

She warned that financial adjustments made to handle high interest payments might not fully tackle the increasing debt burdens resulting from off-budget spending. This is especially pertinent for oil-importing countries in the MENA region, Gatti noted.

Oil-exporting nations face the task of broadening their economic and financial sources due to shifts in global oil markets and rising demand for renewable energy.

Gatti explained that uncertainty in the MENA region, already higher than in other emerging markets and developing countries, intensified after October 7 (the start of the conflict between Israel and Hamas) and remains higher than in those regions.

While noting that the report assumes no escalation in conflict, she cautioned about its lasting effects.

As per Gatti, studies show that debt patterns after conflict differ from other disasters. Debt tends to rise after nearly any natural disaster, and GDP growth drops in the disaster year. But growth rebounds in the following years.

After armed conflict, debt spikes significantly, like in any disaster. However, economic recovery post-conflict doesn’t happen, meaning government actions after fighting may not boost economic growth. This means pre-existing debt vulnerabilities could worsen if conflict escalates in the Middle East and North Africa.

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Business

Global Unemployment ‘Stable’ in 2026, but Decent Jobs Lacking

A Palestinian employee inspects sweet locally known as "al-Shatwi" (Winter) Crimbo sweets, as the Al-Arees factory gradually resumes operations after a hiatus caused by the Gaza war which led to shortages of raw materials used in their products, in Deir al-Balah, in the central Gaza Strip on January 12, 2026, following a US-brokered truce that halted the two-year war. (AFP)
A Palestinian employee inspects sweet locally known as "al-Shatwi" (Winter) Crimbo sweets, as the Al-Arees factory gradually resumes operations after a hiatus caused by the Gaza war which led to shortages of raw materials used in their products, in Deir al-Balah, in the central Gaza Strip on January 12, 2026, following a US-brokered truce that halted the two-year war. (AFP)
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Global Unemployment ‘Stable’ in 2026, but Decent Jobs Lacking

A Palestinian employee inspects sweet locally known as "al-Shatwi" (Winter) Crimbo sweets, as the Al-Arees factory gradually resumes operations after a hiatus caused by the Gaza war which led to shortages of raw materials used in their products, in Deir al-Balah, in the central Gaza Strip on January 12, 2026, following a US-brokered truce that halted the two-year war. (AFP)
A Palestinian employee inspects sweet locally known as "al-Shatwi" (Winter) Crimbo sweets, as the Al-Arees factory gradually resumes operations after a hiatus caused by the Gaza war which led to shortages of raw materials used in their products, in Deir al-Balah, in the central Gaza Strip on January 12, 2026, following a US-brokered truce that halted the two-year war. (AFP)

The global unemployment rate is expected to hold steady in 2026, the United Nations said Wednesday, but cautioned the labor market's seeming stability belies a dire shortage of decent jobs.

The UN's International Labor Organization said the global economy and labor market appeared to have weathered recent economic shocks better than expected.

But the ILO warned that efforts to improve global job quality had stagnated, leaving hundreds of millions of workers wallowing in poverty, even as trade uncertainty risked cutting into workers wages.

The global unemployment rate was estimated at 4.9 percent last year and the year before, and is now projected to remain at a similar level until 2027, a report from the UN labor agency said.

That amounts to 186 million people out of work this year, it said.

"Global labor markets look stable, but that stability is quite fragile," Caroline Fredrickson, head of the ILO's research department, told reporters, cautioning that the "apparent calm masks deeper and unresolved problems".

At a time when US President Donald Trump has slapped towering tariffs on friends and foes alike, the report cautioned that "disruptions caused by trade uncertainty, combined with ongoing long-term transformations in global trade, could significantly affect labor market outcomes".

Going forward, the ILO said its modelling suggested that a moderate increase in trade policy uncertainty "may reduce returns to labor and, as a consequence, real wages for both skilled and unskilled workers across all sectors", especially in Southeast Asia, Southern Asia and Europe.

The potential of trade to generate new employment opportunities was also being challenged by the ongoing disruptions, the report said, pointing out that 465 million jobs globally depended on foreign demand through exports of goods and services and related supply chains in 2024.

- Extreme poverty -

Another major concern highlighted by the ILO was the quality of jobs available.

"Resilient growth and stable unemployment figures should not distract us from the deeper reality: hundreds of millions of workers remain trapped in poverty, informality, and exclusion," ILO chief Gilbert Houngbo said in a statement.

Nearly 300 million workers continue to live in extreme poverty, earning less than $3 a day, Wednesday's report found.

At the same time, some 2.1 billion workers are expected to hold informal jobs this year, with limited access to social protection, labor rights and job security.

Young people remain particularly vulnerable, with unemployment among 15- to 24-year-olds projected to reach 12.4 percent for 2025, with around 260 million young people not engaged in education, employment or training, ILO said.

It warned that artificial intelligence and automation could exacerbate challenges, particularly for educated young people in wealthier countries seeking their first high-skill jobs.

"While the full impact of AI on youth employment remains uncertain, its potential magnitude warrants close monitoring," the report said.

The ILO also highlighted "entrenched gender inequalities", pointing out that women still account for just two-fifths of global employment.

"Stable labor markets are not necessarily healthy," Fredrickson said, stressing the growing need for "domestic policy choices to strengthen decent work outcomes".

"Without decisive action, today's stability risks giving way to deeper inequalities."

Business

China Had a Record $1.2 Trillion Trade Surplus in 2025, as Exports Rose 6.6% in December

Women dressed in traditional Chinese-style attire cross a street in Beijing, China, Tuesday, Jan. 13, 2026. (AP)
Women dressed in traditional Chinese-style attire cross a street in Beijing, China, Tuesday, Jan. 13, 2026. (AP)
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China Had a Record $1.2 Trillion Trade Surplus in 2025, as Exports Rose 6.6% in December

Women dressed in traditional Chinese-style attire cross a street in Beijing, China, Tuesday, Jan. 13, 2026. (AP)
Women dressed in traditional Chinese-style attire cross a street in Beijing, China, Tuesday, Jan. 13, 2026. (AP)

China’s trade surplus surged to a record of almost $1.2 trillion in 2025, the government said Wednesday, as exports to other countries made up for slowing shipments to the United States.

China's exports rose 5.5% for the whole of last year to $3.77 trillion, customs data showed, while imports flatlined at $2.58 trillion. The 2024 trade surplus was over $992 billion.

In December, China’s exports climbed 6.6% from the year before in dollar terms, better than economists’ estimates and higher than November’s 5.9% year-on-year increase. Imports in December were up 5.7% year-on-year, compared to November’s 1.9%.

China’s trade surplus surpassed the $1 trillion mark for the first time in November, when the trade surplus reached $1.08 trillion in the first 11 months of last year.

Economists expect exports will continue to support China’s economy this year, despite trade friction and geopolitical tensions.

“We continue to expect exports to act as a big growth driver in 2026,” said Jacqueline Rong, chief China economist at BNP Paribas.

While China’s exports to the US have fallen sharply for most of last year since President Donald Trump returned to office and escalated his trade war with the world’s second-largest economy, that decline has been largely offset by shipments to other markets in South America, Southeast Asia, Africa and Europe.

For the whole of 2025, China’s exports to the US fell 20%. In contrast, exports to Africa surged 26%. Those to Southeast Asian countries jumped 13%; to the European Union 8%, and to Latin America, 7%.

Strong global demand for computer chips and other devices and the materials needed to make them were among categories that supported China’s exports, analysts said. Car exports also grew last year.

China's strong exports have helped keep its economy growing at an annual rate close to its official target of about 5%. But that has triggered alarm in countries that fear a flood of cheap imports are damaging local industries.

China faces a “severe and complex” external trade environment in 2026, Wang Jun, vice minister of China’s customs administration, told reporters in Beijing. But he said China’s “foreign trade fundamentals remain solid.”

The head of the International Monetary Fund last month called for China to fix its economic imbalances and speed up its shift from reliance on exports by boosting domestic demand and investment.

A prolonged property downturn in China after the authorities cracked down on excessive borrowing, triggering defaults by many developers, is still weighing on consumer confidence and domestic demand.

China’s leaders have made increasing spending by consumers and businesses a focus of economic policy, but actions taken so far have had a limited impact. That included government trade-in subsidies over the past months that encouraged consumers to buy newer, more energy efficient items, such as home appliances and vehicles, and replace older models.

“We expect domestic demand growth to stay tepid,” said Rong of BNP Paribas. “In fact, the policy boost to domestic demand looks weaker than last year -- in particular the fiscal subsidy program for consumer goods.”

Gary Ng, a senior economist at French investment bank Natixis, forecasts that China’s exports will grow about 3% in 2026, less than the 5.5% growth in 2025. With slow import growth, he expects China's trade surplus to remain above $1 trillion this year.

Business

Saudi Arabia Signs Mineral Cooperation Deals with Chile, Canada, Brazil

The MoUs were signed on the sidelines of the Ministerial Roundtable of ministers concerned with mining affairs, held as part of the fifth annual Future Minerals Forum (FMF) in Riyadh. (SPA)
The MoUs were signed on the sidelines of the Ministerial Roundtable of ministers concerned with mining affairs, held as part of the fifth annual Future Minerals Forum (FMF) in Riyadh. (SPA)
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Saudi Arabia Signs Mineral Cooperation Deals with Chile, Canada, Brazil

The MoUs were signed on the sidelines of the Ministerial Roundtable of ministers concerned with mining affairs, held as part of the fifth annual Future Minerals Forum (FMF) in Riyadh. (SPA)
The MoUs were signed on the sidelines of the Ministerial Roundtable of ministers concerned with mining affairs, held as part of the fifth annual Future Minerals Forum (FMF) in Riyadh. (SPA)

Saudi Arabia, represented by the Ministry of Industry and Mineral Resources, signed on Tuesday three international memoranda of understanding (MoUs) on mineral resources cooperation with the Chile, Canada, and Brazil.

The MoUs were signed on the sidelines of the Ministerial Roundtable of ministers concerned with mining affairs, held as part of the fifth annual Future Minerals Forum (FMF), hosted by Riyadh from January 13 to 15.

The deals reflect the Kingdom’s efforts to expand its international partnerships and strengthen technical and investment cooperation in the mining and minerals sector in a manner that serves mutual interests and supports the sustainable development of mineral resources.

The signing ceremony included MoUs on cooperation in the mineral resources field with the Chilean Ministry of Mining, the Canadian Department of Natural Resources, and the Brazilian Ministry of Mines and Energy.

The Ministerial Roundtable recorded the largest level of international representation of its kind globally, with participation from more than 100 countries, including all G20 members in addition to the European Union, as well as 59 multilateral organizations, industry associations, and non-governmental organizations.

The attendance reflects the standing the ministerial meeting has attained as a leading international platform for aligning perspectives, building partnerships, and developing practical solutions to global challenges in the mining and minerals sector.