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S&P Affirms Türkiye’s Successful Economic Plan

People shop at Grand Bazaar in Istanbul, Türkiye, November 4, 2022. REUTERS/Dilara Senkaya
People shop at Grand Bazaar in Istanbul, Türkiye, November 4, 2022. REUTERS/Dilara Senkaya
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S&P Affirms Türkiye’s Successful Economic Plan

People shop at Grand Bazaar in Istanbul, Türkiye, November 4, 2022. REUTERS/Dilara Senkaya
People shop at Grand Bazaar in Istanbul, Türkiye, November 4, 2022. REUTERS/Dilara Senkaya

Credit ratings agency S&P on Friday moved Türkiye’s long-term sovereign rating one notch higher to B+ from B, with a positive outlook, according to a statement late Friday.

The ratings agency then forecasted rising portfolio inflows and narrowing current account deficits over the next two years, alongside declining inflation and dollarization.

“Following local elections in Türkiye, we believe the coordination between monetary, fiscal, and incomes policy is set to improve, amid external rebalancing,” it said.

The agency said Turkiye's policymakers are set to persevere with efforts to reduce elevated inflation through a combination of monetary and credit tightening, less generous wage settlements, and gradual fiscal consolidation.

Türkiye has launched a series of steps meant to cool soaring inflation, which could reach around 75% in May when the government ends its plan to provide a monthly reduction on natural gas bills. Ahead of the 2023 parliamentary and presidential elections, the government has promised discounted natural gas bills for households for a year until May 2024.

S&P Global Ratings raised the country's rating outlook to positive in November in a move to recognize Türkiye’s shift to more orthodox economic policies and the central bank's steep rate hikes, made to rein in inflation, which climbed to 69.8 percent year-on-year in April despite raising the policy rate to 50 percent.

Türkiye ranks fourth in global inflation rates, surpassed by Argentina, Syria and Lebanon.

Fitch Ratings upgraded the country’s credit rating earlier this year to B+ while Moody’s raised its outlook to positive at the same time as affirming its B3 ranking.

Mehmet Şimşek, the Turkish treasury and finance minister, earlier cited his expectations for credit upgrades to continue in March following Fitch’s move.

“The positive outlooks of S&P, Fitch and Moody’s foreshadow further rating increases,” Simsek said Saturday in a post on X, formerly Twitter.

“The positive results of our program are reflected in the decisions of credit rating agencies,” he added.

“We are determined to carry the confidence in our country to the highest level with our strengthened program,” the minister also said.

Meanwhile, Burak Daglioglu, head of theTurkish Presidency Investment Office, said Türkiye last year rose to fourth place in Europe in attracting the most international investment projects.

“The $10.6 billion in international direct investment we attracted in 2023 is the most concrete sign of this success,” Daglioglu noted.

Commenting on a report by audit and consulting firm EY on foreign direct investment (FDI) projects in Europe in 2023, Daglioglu said Türkiye has maintained its steady rise in attracting the most international direct investment in Europe in the post-pandemic period.

He said EY found a significant fall from the previous year in FDI projects in Europe for the first time since the pandemic, blamed on factors such as low economic growth, high inflation, rising energy prices, and geopolitical risks.

He said 5,694 investment projects were announced in Europe, down 4% from the previous year.

The number of projects in Europe was 11% below its level in 2019 and 14% below the 2017 peak, according to Daglioglu.

He added that Türkiye ranked seventh in the European league in 2020 and fifth in 2022. “The country rose to fourth among the top 10 countries, attracting 375 international direct investment projects in 2023. With a 17% rise from the previous year, Türkiye also ranked first among the top 10 countries in terms of growth in 2023,” Daglioglu said.

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Business

GASTAT: Saudi Consumer Inflation Eased to 1.7% in February

Shoppers are seen at a supermarket in Saudi Arabia. SPA
Shoppers are seen at a supermarket in Saudi Arabia. SPA
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GASTAT: Saudi Consumer Inflation Eased to 1.7% in February

Shoppers are seen at a supermarket in Saudi Arabia. SPA
Shoppers are seen at a supermarket in Saudi Arabia. SPA

Saudi Arabia’s annual inflation rate edged down to 1.7 percent in February, the lowest level since January 2025, according to data from the General Authority for Statistics (GASTAT).

The consumer price index eased from 1.8 percent in January to 1.7 percent, GASTAT said Sunday.

The data further showed that housing, water, electricity, gas, and other fuels rose 4.1 percent in February 2026, mainly driven by a 5.1 percent increase in actual housing rents.

Transport prices also climbed 1.4 percent, supported by a 5.6 percent rise in passenger transport services, while restaurant and accommodation services increased 1.9 percent due to higher accommodation costs.

Personal care, social protection and miscellaneous goods and services surged 8.2 percent, largely reflecting a jump in other personal effects, particularly jewelry and watch prices, which rose 29 percent.

According to GASTAT, prices in recreation, sport and culture climbed 1.8 percent, while education services increased 1.4 percent. As for information and communications prices, they edged up 1.1 percent.

Data showed that prices in the insurance and financial services category rose 1 percent.

As for furnishings, household equipment and routine maintenance, prices declined 0.9 percent, while prices for food and beverages, as well as clothing and footwear, remained largely stable during the period.

GASTAT said that on a monthly basis, the Consumer Price Index last month recorded relative stability compared to January 2026.

Business

Oil Hovers around $100, Stocks Mixed as Iran War Rages

An oil pump is pictured at an obsolete oilfield, with wind turbines in the background, in Sargentes de la Lora on March 13, 2026, near Burgos in northern Spain, where oil first flowed in Spain in 1964. (Photo by CESAR MANSO / AFP)
An oil pump is pictured at an obsolete oilfield, with wind turbines in the background, in Sargentes de la Lora on March 13, 2026, near Burgos in northern Spain, where oil first flowed in Spain in 1964. (Photo by CESAR MANSO / AFP)
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Oil Hovers around $100, Stocks Mixed as Iran War Rages

An oil pump is pictured at an obsolete oilfield, with wind turbines in the background, in Sargentes de la Lora on March 13, 2026, near Burgos in northern Spain, where oil first flowed in Spain in 1964. (Photo by CESAR MANSO / AFP)
An oil pump is pictured at an obsolete oilfield, with wind turbines in the background, in Sargentes de la Lora on March 13, 2026, near Burgos in northern Spain, where oil first flowed in Spain in 1964. (Photo by CESAR MANSO / AFP)

Oil prices hovered around $100 a barrel Monday and stocks fluctuated as the Iran war moved into a third week with both sides showing no sign of backing down and diplomats trying to ensure safe passage for tankers through the crucial Strait of Hormuz.

Crude shot up in the opening minutes after the US president said at the weekend that forces struck military targets on Kharg Island, a scrubby stretch of land in the Gulf that handles almost all of Iran's oil exports.

He also warned attacks could expand to energy infrastructure if the Iranian republic interferes with transit through Hormuz, which has been effectively closed since the US-Israel operations began on February 28.

Iran's Fars news agency reported soon after that no oil infrastructure was damaged in strikes.

Trump urged other countries to send warships to keep the waterway open but offered no specifics or commitments from the US side, saying he hoped China, France, Japan, South Korea and the UK would take part.

He later wrote Saturday in a Truth Social post: "The Countries of the World that receive Oil through the Hormuz Strait must take care of that passage, and we will help -- A LOT!

"This should have always been a team effort, and now it will be."

However, Japan said Monday it was "not at the moment considering issuing a maritime security operation", while Australia announced it would not send any navy ships to the region.

Trump said Tehran wanted a deal to end the fighting, but that he was not prepared to make one on current terms, without giving further details.

Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said his country was not interested in talks with Washington.

"We don't see any reason why we should talk with Americans, because we were talking with them when they decided to attack us," he told CBS's "Face The Nation" in an interview aired Sunday.

"There is no good experience talking with Americans," adding that "we never asked for a ceasefire, and we have never asked even for negotiation".

However, he did say he was ready to speak to countries "who want to talk to us about the safe passage of their vessels".

"I cannot mention any country in particular, but we have been approached by a number of countries" seeking such safe passage, he added.

Meanwhile, traders hoping for an early end to the conflict were left disappointed after Trump's top economics adviser Kevin Hassett said the Pentagon estimates it could take up to six weeks, though the operation was ahead of schedule.

Both main crude contracts advanced. Brent shot up around three percent to as high as $106.50 before paring the gains, while West Texas Intermediate sat around $99.

And with worries growing about a possible energy crisis that could hammer the global economy, equity markets remained under pressure.

Tokyo, Shanghai, Sydney, Seoul, Wellington, Manila and Jakarta were all down, though Hong Kong, Singapore and Taipei edged up.

"Equities may welcome any sign that Hormuz could be reopened, but with further strikes still being threatened and diplomacy still patchy, conviction is low," said Charu Chanana at Saxo Markets.

Adding to economic concerns was data showing Friday that fourth-quarter US gross domestic product expanded 0.7 percent, much slower than the initial reading of 1.4 percent.

And delayed figures showed the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge dipped to 2.8 percent in January before energy prices shot higher.

"Developments over the weekend, while no more disconcerting than at the end of last week, don't offer any obvious pretext for a less pessimistic start to the new trading week," warned National Australia Bank's Ray Attrill.

Also in view this week are policy meetings at seven major central banks including the Fed, Bank of England and the European Central Bank.

While they are expected to stand pat on interest rates, any remarks on the impact of the war on their respective economies will be closely followed.

Business

Bahrain Starts to Cut Production at World’s Largest Aluminium Smelter

A worker walks past the storage of aluminium ingots at the aluminum smelter Aluminium Dunkerque in Loon-Plage near Dunkirk, France, September 22, 2022. REUTERS/Pascal Rossignol
A worker walks past the storage of aluminium ingots at the aluminum smelter Aluminium Dunkerque in Loon-Plage near Dunkirk, France, September 22, 2022. REUTERS/Pascal Rossignol
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Bahrain Starts to Cut Production at World’s Largest Aluminium Smelter

A worker walks past the storage of aluminium ingots at the aluminum smelter Aluminium Dunkerque in Loon-Plage near Dunkirk, France, September 22, 2022. REUTERS/Pascal Rossignol
A worker walks past the storage of aluminium ingots at the aluminum smelter Aluminium Dunkerque in Loon-Plage near Dunkirk, France, September 22, 2022. REUTERS/Pascal Rossignol

Aluminium Bahrain, known as Alba, said on Sunday it had initiated a shutdown of three aluminium smelting lines accounting for 19% of its capacity to preserve business continuity amid ongoing disruption in the Strait of Hormuz.

The closures are the latest impact on the Middle East aluminium sector, which accounts for around 9% ⁠of global supply, from the US-Israeli war on Iran, according to Reuters.

Fears of shortages propelled London Metal Exchange aluminium to a nearly four-year high of $3,546.50 per metric ton on Thursday.

Alba, which has smelting capacity of 1.62 million tons of aluminium per year, said in a statement it had initiated a “controlled and safe shutdown” of reduction lines 1, 2 and 3.

“This targeted, line-specific action is designed to optimize the utilization of Alba's existing raw materials inventory and prioritize operational stability across Reduction Lines 4, 5 and 6,” added ⁠Alba, which describes itself as the “world's largest aluminium smelter on one site.”

The company had issued force majeure on March 4 since it was unable to ship metal to customers due to the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

The closure has also left Middle East ⁠smelters unable to bring in vessels carrying their key raw material, alumina.

Energy supply is another issue for smelters.

Qatar's Qatalum had begun a shutdown on March 3 due to a suspension of its ⁠gas supply but will now operate at 60% capacity.

Alba, meanwhile, said it would use the opportunity to undertake asset care and maintenance on the three shuttered lines, including ⁠comprehensive housekeeping and cleaning activities, laying the foundations for a safe restart when conditions improve.

“The company is also working closely with suppliers and customers to manage commitments and mitigate disruption,” it added.