Al Ghais: OPEC Sees No Peak in Oil Demand in Long Term Forecast

OPEC Secretary-General Hathaim Al Ghais. Photo: OPEC account on X
OPEC Secretary-General Hathaim Al Ghais. Photo: OPEC account on X
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Al Ghais: OPEC Sees No Peak in Oil Demand in Long Term Forecast

OPEC Secretary-General Hathaim Al Ghais. Photo: OPEC account on X
OPEC Secretary-General Hathaim Al Ghais. Photo: OPEC account on X

OPEC does not see a peak in oil demand in its long-term forecast and expects demand to grow to 116 million barrels a day by 2045, and may be higher, the secretary general said on Thursday.
The International Energy Agency said in a report on Wednesday it sees oil demand peaking by 2029, levelling off at around 106 million barrels per day (bpd) towards the end of the decade.
Hathaim Al Ghais, writing in Energy Aspects, called the IEA report "dangerous commentary, especially for consumers, and will only lead to energy volatility on a potentially unprecedented scale".
OPEC+, which groups the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, and allies including Russia, has made a series of deep output cuts since late 2022 to support the market.
OPEC+ members are cutting output by a total of 5.86 million bpd, or about 5.7% of global demand.
That includes cuts of 3.66 million bpd, which the group on June 2 agreed to extend by a year until the end of 2025, and cuts of 2.2 million bpd, which OPEC+ will gradually phase out over the course of a year from October.
The Paris-based IEA, which advises industrialized countries, moved forward the date for peak oil demand after having said in October that it would occur by 2030. It said oil demand would begin to contract in 2030 while the US and other non-OPEC countries add to supply.
Al Ghais said similar narratives had been proven wrong previously, such as the IEA suggesting gasoline demand had peaked in 2019 or that coal demand had peaked in 2014.
"At OPEC, we see oil demand growth of 4 mb/d over the two years of 2024 and 2025, with other forecasters also seeing an expansion of over 3 mb/d. Even the IEA sees growth of 2 mb/d over this period, followed by growth of 0.8 mb/d in 2026. It then dramatically drops off a cliff to almost no growth in the next four years through 2030," he said.

"This is an unrealistic scenario, one that would negatively impact economies across the world. It is simply a continuation of the IEA's anti-oil narrative."



Construction Begins on ‘Banan City’ Project in Riyadh

Engineers oversee construction work at “Banan City” Project in northern Riyadh (Asharq Al-Awsat)
Engineers oversee construction work at “Banan City” Project in northern Riyadh (Asharq Al-Awsat)
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Construction Begins on ‘Banan City’ Project in Riyadh

Engineers oversee construction work at “Banan City” Project in northern Riyadh (Asharq Al-Awsat)
Engineers oversee construction work at “Banan City” Project in northern Riyadh (Asharq Al-Awsat)

Saudi Talaat Moustafa Group announced on Saturday that construction work has commenced on the “Banan City” Project in Riyadh’s northeastern Al-Fursan suburb.
The company stated that operations are underway around the clock, adhering to construction schedules and plans. Heavy and operational equipment are fully deployed to deliver units to owners sequentially.
Banan City is set to be a smart city spanning 10 million square meters in northeastern Riyadh.
It aims to offer an unprecedented quality of life to over 120,000 residents within a gated community. The development will integrate cutting-edge smart city technologies with residential privacy and the latest sustainability standards.
In May, the National Housing Company and Saudi Talaat Moustafa Group laid the foundation for “Banan City” and began accepting reservations.
On July 9, the group disclosed to the Egyptian stock exchange that “Banan City,” described as a sustainable city, has achieved unprecedented sales since its launch in May, surpassing the first-year sales target in just two months.
Hesham Talaat Moustafa, Chairman of Saudi Talaat Moustafa Group, projected the project’s revenue at around 40 billion Saudi riyals ($12 billion), with a total investment cost estimated at 31.4 billion riyals.