Oil Prices Edge Higher as Supply Risks Mount

FILE PHOTO: A view shows oil pump jacks outside Almetyevsk in the Republic of Tatarstan, Russia June 4, 2023. REUTERS/Alexander Manzyuk//File Photo
FILE PHOTO: A view shows oil pump jacks outside Almetyevsk in the Republic of Tatarstan, Russia June 4, 2023. REUTERS/Alexander Manzyuk//File Photo
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Oil Prices Edge Higher as Supply Risks Mount

FILE PHOTO: A view shows oil pump jacks outside Almetyevsk in the Republic of Tatarstan, Russia June 4, 2023. REUTERS/Alexander Manzyuk//File Photo
FILE PHOTO: A view shows oil pump jacks outside Almetyevsk in the Republic of Tatarstan, Russia June 4, 2023. REUTERS/Alexander Manzyuk//File Photo

Oil prices rose in early Asian trading hours on Friday, setting up a third straight weekly jump, as concerns about supply problems from escalating geopolitical tensions and weather-related disruptions offset signs of weak demand.
Brent crude futures for August settlement, which expire on Friday, rose 15 cents, or 0.2% to $86.54 a barrel by 0020 GMT. The Brent contract for September was also up 0.2% at $85.44 a barrel.
US West Texas Intermediate crude futures for August delivery rose 24 cents, or 0.3%, to $81.98 a barrel.
Oil prices have shrugged off signs of weak demand in the United States, the biggest oil consuming nation, and rallied higher as cross-border strains between Israel and Lebanon's Hezbollah escalated. A widening war in the Middle East could draw in countries like Iran, one of the top oil exporters in the region.
The French foreign ministry expressed concern over the situation in Lebanon on Thursday, while Türkiye earlier said it stands in solidarity with Lebanon and called on regional governments' support.
Oil supplies have also come under pressure from weather-related disruptions which could worsen in the coming weeks. Heavy rains have caused Ecuador's production to decline by 100,000 barrels a day over the past week, FGE Energy said on Friday.
The US Gulf Coast, home to a bulk of the country's energy and export infrastructure, could also be hit by adverse weather in the coming days with the US National Hurricane Center tracking at least one weather system that could become a cyclone and headed towards the region.
Brent and WTI futures have gained 1.5% so far on a weekly basis.
On the demand front, rising US crude stockpiles and weak gasoline consumption has kept a ceiling above oil prices. Government data this week showed an unexpected jump in crude inventories in the country as fuel demand weakened.
However, expectations of record travel over the July 4th weekend in the US could lift gasoline demand and help draw stockpiles.



After Trump’s Victory, Arab Demands for Competitive Advantages Due to Regional Tensions

Donald Trump addresses his supporters at the West Palm Beach Convention Center in Florida on Wednesday. (EPA)
Donald Trump addresses his supporters at the West Palm Beach Convention Center in Florida on Wednesday. (EPA)
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After Trump’s Victory, Arab Demands for Competitive Advantages Due to Regional Tensions

Donald Trump addresses his supporters at the West Palm Beach Convention Center in Florida on Wednesday. (EPA)
Donald Trump addresses his supporters at the West Palm Beach Convention Center in Florida on Wednesday. (EPA)

With the election of Donald Trump as US president, the global economy has gained direction for the coming years. Trump’s policies favor corporate tax cuts, increased investment, and expansionary monetary policies. He also promotes local production to boost job creation, which involves imposing significant tariffs on trade partners, particularly in Asia. This approach could trigger a trade war, affecting inflation in both the US and worldwide.

The US economy is already grappling with high prices, slower economic growth, and rising unemployment, alongside a national debt nearing 99% of GDP. This backdrop underscores the importance of economic issues in the recent election.

For the new US administration, domestic concerns will not be the sole priority. Ongoing geopolitical tensions, especially recent Middle Eastern conflicts, will also impact the US economy. To gain regional insights, Asharq Al-Awsat consulted economists from various Arab nations on their expectations and requests from the US president regarding the Middle East.

Priority of Regional Stability

Dr. Mohamed Youssef, an Egyptian economist, emphasized that regional stability is crucial, benefiting the economy and paving the way for resolving complex issues like the Nile Dam dispute affecting Egypt. He highlighted the American role in fostering calm in the region.

Iraqi economist Durgham Mohamed Ali noted that US relations vary across the Middle East; while Lebanon and Yemen remain outside current US alliances, Sudan and Somalia require international aid to rebuild infrastructure.

Competitive Advantage for Arab Countries

Ahmed Moaty, a global markets expert from Egypt, suggested that reduced US tariffs would improve Arab economies’ competitiveness. However, he pointed out the American high debt could motivate the administration to impose tariffs to protect local industries and reduce imports. Ali observed that US tariffs are interest-driven and selective, favoring allies like Japan, Taiwan, and South Korea while being stringent toward BRICS members, such as China, Brazil, and South Africa. He linked tariff policies to regional geopolitics, especially the conflicts involving Israel, Lebanon, Palestine, and Iran, which could influence US economic decisions.

Dr. Mohamed Youssef also argued that easing US-China competition could benefit the global economy, as high tariffs on Chinese goods reduce China’s growth, decreasing demand for key commodities like oil.

Ibrahim Al-Nwaibet, CEO of Saudi Arabia’s Value Capital, predicted that a Republican win could positively impact oil and interest rates, revitalizing the petrochemical and trade finance sectors.

On currency, Moaty noted the strong US dollar pressures emerging markets, especially in the Middle East. He suggested offering US Treasury bonds with higher yields to Arab countries as a counterbalance. Ali added that the dollar’s strength poses challenges for countries heavily reliant on US currency amid global liquidity shortages.

The BRICS Bloc

Ali also mentioned the high levels of US debt, explaining: “In general, the entire world is concerned about rising US debt, slowing growth rates... and is wary of the BRICS alliance, which some Arab countries hope to join. The question remains whether a cold economic war will ensue.”

Youssef also discussed the BRICS, which could play a role in attracting the new US president’s attention to countries joining the alliance. He added: “This may provide new competitive advantages for countries in the region, particularly as countries like Egypt, the UAE, and Iran recently joined BRICS, while Saudi Arabia is still evaluating the benefits of such move.”