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Gold Holds Ground as Slowing Inflation Boosts Fed Rate Cut Bets

Marked ingots of 99.99 percent pure gold are placed in a cart at the Krastsvetmet non-ferrous metals plant in the Siberian city of Krasnoyarsk, Russia March 10, 2022. REUTERS/Alexander Manzyuk/File Photo
Marked ingots of 99.99 percent pure gold are placed in a cart at the Krastsvetmet non-ferrous metals plant in the Siberian city of Krasnoyarsk, Russia March 10, 2022. REUTERS/Alexander Manzyuk/File Photo
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Gold Holds Ground as Slowing Inflation Boosts Fed Rate Cut Bets

Marked ingots of 99.99 percent pure gold are placed in a cart at the Krastsvetmet non-ferrous metals plant in the Siberian city of Krasnoyarsk, Russia March 10, 2022. REUTERS/Alexander Manzyuk/File Photo
Marked ingots of 99.99 percent pure gold are placed in a cart at the Krastsvetmet non-ferrous metals plant in the Siberian city of Krasnoyarsk, Russia March 10, 2022. REUTERS/Alexander Manzyuk/File Photo

Gold prices held steady on Monday after data showed US inflation subsided in May, bolstering hopes that the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates this year.
Spot gold was nearly unchanged at $2,325.49 per ounce, as of 0716 GMT. Prices registered a more than 4% gain in the second quarter, Reuters said.
US gold futures eased 0.2% to $2,334.80.
Data on Friday showed that the US personal consumption expenditures index increased 2.6% in the 12 months through May after advancing 2.7% in April, while inflation readings for the month were in line with economists' expectations.
"The latest US inflation data remain fresh on investors' mind, with the data coming in line with consensus and generally did little to sway current market rate expectations for the Fed's easing process to kickstart in September," said IG market strategist Yeap Jun Rong.
But, "any failure to defend the $2,280 level ahead may potentially pave the way for gold prices to head towards the $2,200 next".
Market now expect a 64% chance of the Fed cutting interest rates in September, unchanged from before the data, as well as another cut in December.
Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion.
Investor focus now shifts to remarks from Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Tuesday, followed by minutes from the Fed's latest policy meeting on Wednesday and US labor market data later in the week.
Meanwhile, ANZ analysts in a note said that "although central bank purchases have slowed down in recent months, we believe emerging market's central banks will continue to diversify their reserves into gold."
Spot silver was flat at $29.12, platinum rose 0.3% to $996.12 and palladium gained 0.6% at $978.46.
Key metals consumer China's manufacturing activity grew at its fastest pace in more than three years, a private sector survey showed. This contrasts with an official PMI released on Sunday that showed a decline in manufacturing activity.

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US Job Growth Surges in September, Unemployment Rate Falls to 4.1%

A woman enters a store next to a sign advertising job openings at Times Square in New York City, New York, US, August 6, 2021. REUTERS/Eduardo Munoz/File Photo
A woman enters a store next to a sign advertising job openings at Times Square in New York City, New York, US, August 6, 2021. REUTERS/Eduardo Munoz/File Photo
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US Job Growth Surges in September, Unemployment Rate Falls to 4.1%

A woman enters a store next to a sign advertising job openings at Times Square in New York City, New York, US, August 6, 2021. REUTERS/Eduardo Munoz/File Photo
A woman enters a store next to a sign advertising job openings at Times Square in New York City, New York, US, August 6, 2021. REUTERS/Eduardo Munoz/File Photo

US job growth accelerated in September and the unemployment slipped to 4.1%, further reducing the need for the Federal Reserve to maintain large interest rate cuts at its remaining two meetings this year.
Nonfarm payrolls increased by 254,000 jobs last month after rising by an upwardly revised 159,000 in August, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics said in its closely watched employment report on Friday.
Economists polled by Reuters had forecast payrolls rising by 140,000 positions after advancing by a previously reported 142,000 in August.
The initial payrolls count for August has typically been revised higher over the past decade. Estimates for September's job gains ranged from 70,000 to 220,000.
The US labor market slowdown is being driven by tepid hiring against the backdrop of increased labor supply stemming mostly from a rise in immigration. Layoffs have remained low, which is underpinning the economy through solid consumer spending.
Average hourly earnings rose 0.4% after gaining 0.5% in August. Wages increased 4% year-on-year after climbing 3.9% in August.
The US unemployment rate dropped from 4.2% in August. It has jumped from 3.4% in April 2023, in part boosted by the 16-24 age cohort and rise in temporary layoffs during the annual automobile plant shutdowns in July.
The US Federal Reserve's policy setting committee kicked off its policy easing cycle with an unusually large half-percentage-point rate cut last month and Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized growing concerns over the health of the labor market.
While the labor market has taken a step back, annual benchmark revisions to national accounts data last week showed the economy in a much better shape than previously estimated, with upgrades to growth, income, savings and corporate profits.
This improved economic backdrop was acknowledged by Powell this week when he pushed back against investors' expectations for another half-percentage-point rate cut in November, saying “this is not a committee that feels like it is in a hurry to cut rates quickly.”
The Fed hiked rates by 525 basis points in 2022 and 2023, and delivered its first rate cut since 2020 last month. Its policy rate is currently set in the 4.75%-5.00% band.
Early on Friday, financial markets saw a roughly 71.5% chance of a quarter-point rate reduction in November, CME's FedWatch tool showed. The odds of a 50 basis points cut were around 28.5%.