Egypt GDP Growth Forecast at 4% in 2024/25 Fiscal Year, IMF Official Says

A worker counts money at a petrol station in Cairo on July 26, 2024. (AFP)
A worker counts money at a petrol station in Cairo on July 26, 2024. (AFP)
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Egypt GDP Growth Forecast at 4% in 2024/25 Fiscal Year, IMF Official Says

A worker counts money at a petrol station in Cairo on July 26, 2024. (AFP)
A worker counts money at a petrol station in Cairo on July 26, 2024. (AFP)

Egypt's economic growth is forecast at 4% in the 2024/25 fiscal year and inflation is expected to fall below 15%, the International Monetary Fund's mission chief for the country said on Tuesday.

In comments to reporters, Ivanna Vladkova Hollar added that talks between the IMF and the Egyptian government about access to climate transition financing from the Fund's Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF) would continue in the autumn.

In March, Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly said the country would seek about $1.2 billion from the RSF.

Egypt can already draw $820 million from its latest 46-month IMF $8 billion loan program after the fund said on Monday it had completed its third review.

Approved in 2022 and expanded this year, the loan program followed an economic crisis marked by high inflation and severe foreign currency shortages.

Hollar said boosting tax revenue was a priority reform issue that would be discussed during the program's fourth review.

"Egypt needs tax resources to be able to spend on priority needs, that is a priority reform that we will be discussing at the time of the fourth review," she said.

Under the program, the outstanding reviews will take place every six months until autumn 2026, with each disbursement currently scheduled at about $1.3 billion, Hollar said in April.



Oil Dips on China Demand Concerns, Fading Mideast Worries

FILE PHOTO: A gas station attendant pumps fuel into a customer's car at the NNPC Mega petrol station in Abuja, Nigeria March 19, 2020. REUTERS/Afolabi Sotunde/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: A gas station attendant pumps fuel into a customer's car at the NNPC Mega petrol station in Abuja, Nigeria March 19, 2020. REUTERS/Afolabi Sotunde/File Photo
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Oil Dips on China Demand Concerns, Fading Mideast Worries

FILE PHOTO: A gas station attendant pumps fuel into a customer's car at the NNPC Mega petrol station in Abuja, Nigeria March 19, 2020. REUTERS/Afolabi Sotunde/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: A gas station attendant pumps fuel into a customer's car at the NNPC Mega petrol station in Abuja, Nigeria March 19, 2020. REUTERS/Afolabi Sotunde/File Photo

Oil prices fell on Tuesday, extending losses from the previous session amid concerns about demand in China, the world's largest crude importer, while the market shrugged off the risk of conflict escalating in the Middle East.
Brent crude oil futures fell by 40 cents, or 0.5%, to $79.38 a barrel by 0640 GMT. US crude futures were down 43 cents, or 0.6%, at $75.38 a barrel, Reuters reported.
A raft of disappointing economic news out of China has shaken markets recently. China's manufacturing activity likely shrank for a third month in July, a Reuters poll showed on Monday.
Also on Monday, Citi cut China's growth forecast to 4.8% from 5% after the country's second-quarter growth missed analyst estimates, noting that economic activity softened further in July.
"We believe the market has a stronger downside bias in the short term, weighed by continuing slack domestic demand from China, as well as potential output restoration by some OPEC+ members in Q4," said Emril Jamil, a senior analyst at LSEG Oil Resarch, referring to the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies led by Russia.
"Tariff tensions with Europe and the U. will also influence Chinese crude demand going forward," Jamil said.
The market is watching an upcoming meeting of China's top decision-making body, the Politburo, expected to take place this week, that could elicit further economic policy support.
But expectations are limited after the Third Plenum, a key policy meeting in mid-July, largely reiterated existing economic policy goals and failed to lift market sentiment.
Oil fell 2% in the previous trading session after Israel signaled that its response to a Hezbollah rocket strike in Israeli-occupied Golan Heights on Saturday would be calculated to avoid dragging the Middle East into an all-out war.
That was reinforced by a US diplomatic push, reported by Reuters on Monday, to constrain Israel's response and prevent it from striking either the Lebanese capital of Beirut or any major civilian infrastructure in retaliation.
In Venezuela, the opposition said it had won 73% of the vote, despite the national electoral authority having declared incumbent Nicolas Maduro the winner of the election, giving him a third term in office.
"Nicolas Maduro's victory in the latest Venezuelan election is a headwind for global supply, as this could result in tighter US sanctions," ANZ analysts said in a note, estimating that could cut Venezuela's exports by 100,000-120,000 barrels per day.
Governments in Washington and elsewhere cast doubt on the results and called for a full tabulation of votes, and protesters gathered in towns and cities across Venezuela on Monday.