Global Stocks Plunge, Bond Prices Rally as US Data Spooks

A sign for ‘Jobs’ is displayed outside a business in Los Angeles, California, USA, 02 August 2024. EPA/ALLISON DINNER
A sign for ‘Jobs’ is displayed outside a business in Los Angeles, California, USA, 02 August 2024. EPA/ALLISON DINNER
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Global Stocks Plunge, Bond Prices Rally as US Data Spooks

A sign for ‘Jobs’ is displayed outside a business in Los Angeles, California, USA, 02 August 2024. EPA/ALLISON DINNER
A sign for ‘Jobs’ is displayed outside a business in Los Angeles, California, USA, 02 August 2024. EPA/ALLISON DINNER

Surprisingly weak US employment data on Friday stoked fears of a recession ahead, prompting investors to dump stocks and turn to safe-haven bonds, Reuters reported.

Treasury prices surged, sending yields to multi-month lows.
Oil price benchmarks fell by more than $3 per barrel at their session lows. The US dollar index dropped over 1% to its weakest since March.

Richly valued technology firms bore much of the pain, and an index of European bank stocks headed for its largest weekly decline in 17 months on soft earnings.

The VIX stock market volatility measure, dubbed Wall Street's fear gauge, surged over 40%.

Friday's US jobs report showed job growth slowed more than expected in July and unemployment increased to 4.3%, pointing to possible weakness in the labor market and greater vulnerability to recession.

Markets were already rattled by downbeat earnings updates from Amazon and Intel and Thursday's softer-than-expected US factory activity survey in addition to the monthly US non-farm payrolls report, which showed job growth slumped to 114,000 new hires in July from 179,000 in June.

The data raised expectations of multiple rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, which just this week opted to keep rates unchanged, Reuters reported.
"The jobs data are signaling substantial further progress that the Federal Reserve made a policy error by not reducing the fed funds rate this week," said Jamie Cox, managing partner for Harris Financial Group in Richmond, Virginia.

"It’s very possible the Fed alters its inter-meeting communications on the balance of risks to remove all doubt about a September rate cut."

With thin summer trading likely exaggerating moves, a slump that began in Asia with a 5.8% drop for Japan's Nikkei, its biggest daily fall since March 2020 during the COVID-19 crisis, rippled through Europe and headed for Wall Street.

MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe fell 16.09 points, or 2.00%, to 787.31.

The Nasdaq Composite lost 417.98 points, or 2.43%, to 16,776.16. The index has fallen more than 10% from its July closing high, confirming it is in a correction after concerns grew about expensive valuations in a weakening economy.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 610.71 points, or 1.51%, to 39,737.26, the S&P 500 lost 100.12 points.

Europe's STOXX 600 fell close to 3%, with financials and technology the worst hit.
Emerging market stocks fell 24.30 points, or 2.23%, to 1,063.50.
MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan closed 2.48% lower 2.48%, at 553.72, while Japan's Nikkei fell 2,216.63 points, or 5.81%, to 35,909.70.
The Fed has kept benchmark borrowing costs at a 23-year high of 5.25%-5.50% for a year, and some analysts believe the world's most influential central bank may have kept monetary policy tight for too long, risking a recession.
Money markets on Friday rushed to price a 70% chance of the Fed, which was already widely expected to cut rates from September, implementing a jumbo 50 basis points cut next month to insure against a downturn.
The "employment report flashes a warning signal that this economy does have the ability to turn rather quickly," said Charlie Ripley, Senior Investment Strategist for Allianz Investment Management in Minneapolis.
"Ultimately, today’s employment data should embolden the committee to cut policy by more than 25 basis points at the next meeting."

RUSH AWAY FROM TECH, TO SAFE HAVENS
Shares in US chipmaker Intel tumbled to a more than 11-year low and finished down over 26%, after suspending its dividend and announcing hefty job cuts alongside underwhelming earnings forecasts.

Artificial intelligence chipmaker Nvidia, one of the biggest contributors to the tech rally, dropped 1.8%
Up more than 700% since January 2023, Nvidia has left many asset managers with an outsized exposure to the fortunes of this single stock.
Safe-haven buying went full throttle, with government debt, gold and currencies traditionally all rallying. They are assets viewed as likely to hold value during market chaos.

The yield on benchmark US 10-year notes fell 18 basis points to 3.798%.
The 2-year note yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations, fell 28.5 basis points to 3.8798%.
In foreign exchange markets, the yen added nearly 2%, extending a rapid bounceback after the Bank of Japan raised interest rates to levels unseen in 15 years.
In commodities, spot gold lost 0.37% to $2,436.31 an ounce and US gold futures settled 0.4% lower to $2,4769.8.
Oil prices took a hit on the growth worries, with global benchmark Brent futures settled down $2.71, or 3.41%, to $76.81 a barrel. US West Texas Intermediate crude futures finished down $2.79, or 3.66%, at $73.52.



Libya's $70 bln Wealth Fund Sees Thaw in UN Asset Freeze by Year-end

Libya's Tripoli view - File photo/AAWSAT AR
Libya's Tripoli view - File photo/AAWSAT AR
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Libya's $70 bln Wealth Fund Sees Thaw in UN Asset Freeze by Year-end

Libya's Tripoli view - File photo/AAWSAT AR
Libya's Tripoli view - File photo/AAWSAT AR

The Libyan Investment Authority is expecting UN sign-off by the end of the year to actively manage its $70 billion in assets for the first time in more than a decade, its chief executive told Reuters.

The LIA, set up under Muammar Gaddafi in 2006 to manage the country's oil wealth, has been under a United Nations asset freeze since the 2011 revolution that toppled Gaddafi.

This means that in order for Africa's largest sovereign wealth fund to make new investments, or even move cash from negative interest rate accounts, where they have been losing money, the LIA needs UN Security Council sign-off.

Chief Executive Ali Mahmoud Mohamed said the authority is confident the council will provide the landmark approval by November or December for an investment plan it submitted in March.

"We believe our investment plan with be accepted ... we don't think they will refuse it," Mohamed told Reuters via a translator.

The first of LIA's four-part plan is the "very simple" step of reinvesting money that has built up during the freeze, such as payouts from bond holdings.

The LIA has previously tried to actively manage its funds. But in the turmoil following Gaddafi's ouster, it at one point had dueling chairmen, backed by different factions within the country. A British court ruled in 2020 in Mohamed's favor. In 2020, the LIA said a Deloitte audit showed the freeze had cost it some $4.1 billion in potential equity returns.

He said transparency has since improved; the LIA released audited financial statements in 2021, covering 2019. It aims to publish the 2020 numbers in the coming months and provide them annually from next year.

And while the LIA was 98th out of 100 sovereign funds in a 2020 ranking of sustainability and governance by Global SWF, an industry data specialist, it stood at 51st this year.

Of its estimated $70 billion in assets, the fund has $29 billion in global real estate, $23 billion in deposits invested in Europe and Bahrain and $8 billion in equities spread over more than 300 companies around the world. It also has roughly $2 billion worth of matured bonds.

The UN Security Council Committee was not immediately available to comment. Last year, after meeting with the LIA, its members "noted the progress made on the implementation of the LIA's Transformation Strategy" and stressed "the importance of guaranteeing the frozen funds for the benefit of the Libyan people."

Mohamed said that it is also planning to request approval this year for two further investment plan "pillars" - one that covers its share portfolio and another that relates to domestic investment plan.

The LIA is targeting domestic investments in solar power and helping increase oil exports. Libya is one of Africa's largest oil exporters, pumping roughly 1.2 million barrels per day.

If the UN does not approve its investment proposals, Mohamed said "we will keep trying...we will keep asking and requesting."