Global Stocks Plunge, Bond Prices Rally as US Data Spooks

A sign for ‘Jobs’ is displayed outside a business in Los Angeles, California, USA, 02 August 2024. EPA/ALLISON DINNER
A sign for ‘Jobs’ is displayed outside a business in Los Angeles, California, USA, 02 August 2024. EPA/ALLISON DINNER
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Global Stocks Plunge, Bond Prices Rally as US Data Spooks

A sign for ‘Jobs’ is displayed outside a business in Los Angeles, California, USA, 02 August 2024. EPA/ALLISON DINNER
A sign for ‘Jobs’ is displayed outside a business in Los Angeles, California, USA, 02 August 2024. EPA/ALLISON DINNER

Surprisingly weak US employment data on Friday stoked fears of a recession ahead, prompting investors to dump stocks and turn to safe-haven bonds, Reuters reported.

Treasury prices surged, sending yields to multi-month lows.
Oil price benchmarks fell by more than $3 per barrel at their session lows. The US dollar index dropped over 1% to its weakest since March.

Richly valued technology firms bore much of the pain, and an index of European bank stocks headed for its largest weekly decline in 17 months on soft earnings.

The VIX stock market volatility measure, dubbed Wall Street's fear gauge, surged over 40%.

Friday's US jobs report showed job growth slowed more than expected in July and unemployment increased to 4.3%, pointing to possible weakness in the labor market and greater vulnerability to recession.

Markets were already rattled by downbeat earnings updates from Amazon and Intel and Thursday's softer-than-expected US factory activity survey in addition to the monthly US non-farm payrolls report, which showed job growth slumped to 114,000 new hires in July from 179,000 in June.

The data raised expectations of multiple rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, which just this week opted to keep rates unchanged, Reuters reported.
"The jobs data are signaling substantial further progress that the Federal Reserve made a policy error by not reducing the fed funds rate this week," said Jamie Cox, managing partner for Harris Financial Group in Richmond, Virginia.

"It’s very possible the Fed alters its inter-meeting communications on the balance of risks to remove all doubt about a September rate cut."

With thin summer trading likely exaggerating moves, a slump that began in Asia with a 5.8% drop for Japan's Nikkei, its biggest daily fall since March 2020 during the COVID-19 crisis, rippled through Europe and headed for Wall Street.

MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe fell 16.09 points, or 2.00%, to 787.31.

The Nasdaq Composite lost 417.98 points, or 2.43%, to 16,776.16. The index has fallen more than 10% from its July closing high, confirming it is in a correction after concerns grew about expensive valuations in a weakening economy.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 610.71 points, or 1.51%, to 39,737.26, the S&P 500 lost 100.12 points.

Europe's STOXX 600 fell close to 3%, with financials and technology the worst hit.
Emerging market stocks fell 24.30 points, or 2.23%, to 1,063.50.
MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan closed 2.48% lower 2.48%, at 553.72, while Japan's Nikkei fell 2,216.63 points, or 5.81%, to 35,909.70.
The Fed has kept benchmark borrowing costs at a 23-year high of 5.25%-5.50% for a year, and some analysts believe the world's most influential central bank may have kept monetary policy tight for too long, risking a recession.
Money markets on Friday rushed to price a 70% chance of the Fed, which was already widely expected to cut rates from September, implementing a jumbo 50 basis points cut next month to insure against a downturn.
The "employment report flashes a warning signal that this economy does have the ability to turn rather quickly," said Charlie Ripley, Senior Investment Strategist for Allianz Investment Management in Minneapolis.
"Ultimately, today’s employment data should embolden the committee to cut policy by more than 25 basis points at the next meeting."

RUSH AWAY FROM TECH, TO SAFE HAVENS
Shares in US chipmaker Intel tumbled to a more than 11-year low and finished down over 26%, after suspending its dividend and announcing hefty job cuts alongside underwhelming earnings forecasts.

Artificial intelligence chipmaker Nvidia, one of the biggest contributors to the tech rally, dropped 1.8%
Up more than 700% since January 2023, Nvidia has left many asset managers with an outsized exposure to the fortunes of this single stock.
Safe-haven buying went full throttle, with government debt, gold and currencies traditionally all rallying. They are assets viewed as likely to hold value during market chaos.

The yield on benchmark US 10-year notes fell 18 basis points to 3.798%.
The 2-year note yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations, fell 28.5 basis points to 3.8798%.
In foreign exchange markets, the yen added nearly 2%, extending a rapid bounceback after the Bank of Japan raised interest rates to levels unseen in 15 years.
In commodities, spot gold lost 0.37% to $2,436.31 an ounce and US gold futures settled 0.4% lower to $2,4769.8.
Oil prices took a hit on the growth worries, with global benchmark Brent futures settled down $2.71, or 3.41%, to $76.81 a barrel. US West Texas Intermediate crude futures finished down $2.79, or 3.66%, at $73.52.



BP Nears Deals for Oil Fields, Curbs on Gas Flaring in Iraq

British Prime Minster Keir Starmer (L) welcomes Prime Minister of Iraq Mohammed Shia al-Sudani to 10 Downing Street in London, Britain, 14 January 2025. (EPA)
British Prime Minster Keir Starmer (L) welcomes Prime Minister of Iraq Mohammed Shia al-Sudani to 10 Downing Street in London, Britain, 14 January 2025. (EPA)
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BP Nears Deals for Oil Fields, Curbs on Gas Flaring in Iraq

British Prime Minster Keir Starmer (L) welcomes Prime Minister of Iraq Mohammed Shia al-Sudani to 10 Downing Street in London, Britain, 14 January 2025. (EPA)
British Prime Minster Keir Starmer (L) welcomes Prime Minister of Iraq Mohammed Shia al-Sudani to 10 Downing Street in London, Britain, 14 January 2025. (EPA)

Iraq and British oil giant BP are set to finalize a deal by early February to develop four oil fields in Kirkuk and curb gas flaring, Iraqi authorities announced Wednesday.

The mega-project in northern Iraq will include plans to recover flared gas to boost the country's electricity production, they said.

Gas flaring refers to the polluting practice of burning off excess gas during oil drilling. It is cheaper than capturing the associated gas.

The Iraqi government and BP signed a new memorandum of understanding in London late Tuesday, as Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani and other senior ministers visit Britain to seal various trade and investment deals.

"The objective is to enhance production and achieve optimal targeted rates of oil and gas output," Sudani's office said in a statement.

Iraq's Oil Minister Hayan Abdel Ghani told AFP after the new accord was signed that the project would increase the four oil fields' production to up to 500,000 barrels per day from about 350,000 bpd.

"The agreement commits both parties to sign a contract in the first week of February," he said.

Ghani noted the project will also target gas flaring.

Iraq has the third highest global rate of gas flaring, after Russia and Iran, having flared about 18 billion cubic meters of gas in 2023, according to the World Bank.

The Iraqi government has made eliminating the practice one of its priorities, with plans to curb 80 percent of flared gas by 2026 and to eliminate releases by 2028.

"It's not just a question of investing and increasing oil production... but also gas exploitation. We can no longer tolerate gas flaring, whatever the quantity," Ghani added.

"We need this gas, which Iraq currently imports from neighboring Iran. The government is making serious efforts to put an end to these imports."

Iraq is ultra-dependent on Iranian gas, which covers almost a third of Iraq's energy needs.

However, Teheran regularly cuts off its supply, exacerbating the power shortages that punctuate the daily lives of 45 million Iraqis.

BP is one of the biggest foreign players in Iraq's oil sector, with a history of producing oil in the country dating back to the 1920s when it was still under British mandate.

According to the World Bank, Iraq has 145 billion barrels of proven oil reserves -- among the largest in the world -- amounting to 96 years' worth of production at the current rate.