Oil Up 2% but Set to End the Week Lower on Demand Concerns

The sun is seen behind a crude oil pump jack in the Permian Basin in Loving County, Texas, US, November 22, 2019. REUTERS/Angus Mordant
The sun is seen behind a crude oil pump jack in the Permian Basin in Loving County, Texas, US, November 22, 2019. REUTERS/Angus Mordant
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Oil Up 2% but Set to End the Week Lower on Demand Concerns

The sun is seen behind a crude oil pump jack in the Permian Basin in Loving County, Texas, US, November 22, 2019. REUTERS/Angus Mordant
The sun is seen behind a crude oil pump jack in the Permian Basin in Loving County, Texas, US, November 22, 2019. REUTERS/Angus Mordant

Oil prices rose 2% on Friday on a softer dollar but were still set to end the week lower as weaker US employment data raised concerns over the health of the world's largest oil consumer, and renewed ceasefire talks in Gaza eased worries about supply.

Brent crude futures rose $1.38, or 1.8%, to $78.60 a barrel at 1220 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures rose $1.46, or 2%, to $74.47. Brent futures have fallen about 1.4% so far this week, while WTI lost nearly 3%.

Both benchmarks hit their lowest since early January this week, after the US government sharply lowered its estimate of jobs added by employers this year through March, Reuters reported.

That sparked concern about a potential recession in the US hurting demand in the top oil consuming nation, but some analysts say that was an overreaction to the jobs revision.

The market will be closely monitoring a keynote speech by Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell scheduled for 1400 GMT on Friday, with the market widely anticipating a rate cut from next month.

"Alluding to a quarter point cut in September is something already priced in and will receive a lukewarm reaction," PVM Oil analyst John Evans said.

"But a double-decker half point percentage cut goes against how the Fed wishes to manage a controlled move away from tightening," he added.

The US dollar index softened to about 101.45 ahead of the speech, and remained close to the 2024 low of 100.92 it hit on Wednesday, and is headed for a fifth straight week of losses. A cheaper greenback typically lifts demand for dollar-denominated oil from investors holding other currencies.

Morgan Stanley said in a note on Friday that a drawdown in oil inventories has provided oil prices with some support.

"For now, the balance in the oil market is tight, with inventories drawing approximately 1.2 million barrels per day in the last four weeks, which we expect will continue in the balance of [the third quarter]," the bank said.

Recent data from China, the top oil importer, has pointed to a struggling economy and slowing oil demand from refiners.
A renewed push for a ceasefire in Gaza between Israel and Hamas has also helped ease supply worries and weighed on oil prices.

US and Israeli delegations started a new round of meetings in Cairo on Thursday to resolve differences over a truce proposal.



GASTAT: Saudi Non-oil Exports Increased by 10.5% in Q2

Containers waiting to be shipped at a Saudi port. SPA
Containers waiting to be shipped at a Saudi port. SPA
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GASTAT: Saudi Non-oil Exports Increased by 10.5% in Q2

Containers waiting to be shipped at a Saudi port. SPA
Containers waiting to be shipped at a Saudi port. SPA

Saudi Arabia’s General Authority for Statistics (GASTAT) said on Thursday that non-oil exports increased by 10.5% compared to Q2 2023.

According to the International Trade Publication for Q2 of 2024, national non-oil exports, excluding re-exports, increased by 1.4%, and the value of re-exported goods increased by 39.1%.

The value of non-oil exports, including re-exports, rose by 4.3%. Merchandise exports decreased by 0.2% compared to Q2 2023, and the value of imports fell by 5.6% due to a 3.3% decrease in oil exports. The share of oil exports in total exports fell to 75.0% from 77.4% in Q2 2023.

Imports rose by 3.0%, and the surplus of the merchandise trade balance decreased by 6.0% compared to Q2 2023.

The value of merchandise exports remained stable compared to Q1 2024. The value of imports decreased by 5.6%, and the surplus of the merchandise trade balance recorded an increase of 13.2%.

GASTAT also issued the International Trade Publication for June 2024, which shows that non-oil exports, including re-exports, increased by 7.3% compared to June 2023. Merchandise exports decreased by 5.8% compared to June 2023 due to a 9.3% decrease in oil exports, and merchandise imports decreased by 5.1%.