Goldman Sachs, Citigroup Cut China's 2024 Growth Forecast

Citizens in the Chinese city of Shanghai follow repairs to power line in the aftermath of Typhoon Bebinca in Shanghai, China (AFP)
Citizens in the Chinese city of Shanghai follow repairs to power line in the aftermath of Typhoon Bebinca in Shanghai, China (AFP)
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Goldman Sachs, Citigroup Cut China's 2024 Growth Forecast

Citizens in the Chinese city of Shanghai follow repairs to power line in the aftermath of Typhoon Bebinca in Shanghai, China (AFP)
Citizens in the Chinese city of Shanghai follow repairs to power line in the aftermath of Typhoon Bebinca in Shanghai, China (AFP)

Goldman Sachs and Citigroup have lowered their full-year projections for China's economic growth to 4.7%, after the world's second-largest economy's industrial output slowed to a five-month low in August.

Weak economic activity in August has ramped up attention on China's slow economic recovery and highlighted the need for further stimulus measures to shore up demand.

The faltering growth has prompted global brokerages to scale back their 2024 projections to below government's target of around 5%.

Goldman Sachs earlier expected full-year growth for the economy at 4.9%, while Citigroup had forecast growth at 4.8%.

China's industrial output in August expanded 4.5% year-on-year, slowing from the 5.1% pace in July and marking the slowest growth since March, data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed on Saturday.

Goldman Sachs said in a note dated Sept. 15, “We believe the risk that China will miss the 'around 5%' full-year GDP growth target is on the rise, and thus the urgency for more demand-side easing measures is also increasing.”

The bank maintained the country's 2025 GDP growth forecast at 4.3%.

However, Citigroup on Sunday trimmed its 2025 year-end forecast for China's GDP growth to 4.2% from 4.5% due to a lack of major catalysts for domestic demand.

“We believe fiscal policy needs to step up to so as to break the austerity trap and timely deploy growth support,” economists at Citigroup said.

In a separate development, PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) is making “tangible investments” to ensure the Big Four firm has high quality and sustainable business in China, it said in a memo to staff after Chinese regulators on Friday hit the company's mainland unit with a record penalty.

PwC Zhong Tian LLP was hit with a six-month suspension and a record fine of 441 million yuan ($62 million) on Friday over the firm's audit of failed property developer China Evergrande Group .



US Tariffs Could Slow China's Growth to 4.5% in 2025

People walk past a billboard which reads I love Beijing, Happy New Year at 798 art district, ahead of the upcoming Lunar New Year, marking the Year of the Snake, in Beijing on January 14, 2025. (Photo by JADE GAO / AFP)
People walk past a billboard which reads I love Beijing, Happy New Year at 798 art district, ahead of the upcoming Lunar New Year, marking the Year of the Snake, in Beijing on January 14, 2025. (Photo by JADE GAO / AFP)
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US Tariffs Could Slow China's Growth to 4.5% in 2025

People walk past a billboard which reads I love Beijing, Happy New Year at 798 art district, ahead of the upcoming Lunar New Year, marking the Year of the Snake, in Beijing on January 14, 2025. (Photo by JADE GAO / AFP)
People walk past a billboard which reads I love Beijing, Happy New Year at 798 art district, ahead of the upcoming Lunar New Year, marking the Year of the Snake, in Beijing on January 14, 2025. (Photo by JADE GAO / AFP)

China's economic growth is likely to slow to 4.5% in 2025 and cool further to 4.2% in 2026, a Reuters poll showed, with policymakers poised to roll out fresh stimulus measures to soften the blow from impending US tariff hikes.

Gross domestic product (GDP) likely grew 4.9% in 2024 - largely meeting the government's annual growth target of around 5%, helped by stimulus measures and strong exports, according to the median forecasts of 64 economists polled by Reuters.

But the world's second-largest economy faces heightened trade tensions with the United States as President-elect Donald Trump, who has proposed hefty tariffs on Chinese goods, is set to return to the White House next week.

“Potential US tariff hikes are the biggest headwind for China's growth this year, and could affect exports, corporate capex and household consumption,” analysts at UBS said in a note.

“We (also) foresee property activity continuing to fall in 2025, though with a smaller drag on growth.”

Growth likely improved to 5.0% in the fourth quarter from a year earlier, quickening from the third-quarter's 4.6% pace as a flurry of support measures began to kick in, the poll showed.

On a quarterly basis, the economy is forecast to grow 1.6% in the fourth quarter, compared with 0.9% in July-September, the poll showed.

The government is due to release fourth-quarter and full-year GDP data, along with December activity data, on Friday.

China's economy has struggled for traction since a post-pandemic rebound quickly fizzled out, with a protracted property crisis, weak demand and high local government debt levels weighing heavily on activity, souring both business and consumer confidence.

Policymakers have unveiled a blitz of stimulus measures since September, including cuts in interest rates and banks' reserve requirements ratios (RRR) and a 10 trillion yuan ($1.36 trillion) municipal debt package.

They have also expanded a trade-in scheme for consumer goods such as appliances and autos, helping to revive retail sales.

Analysts expect more stimulus to be rolled out this year, but say the scope and size of China's moves may depend on how quickly and aggressively Trump implements tariffs or other punitive measures.

More stimulus on the cards

At an agenda-setting meeting in December, Chinese leaders pledged to increase the budget deficit, issue more debt and loosen monetary policy to support economic growth in 2025.

Leaders have agreed to maintain an annual growth target of around 5% for this year, backed by a record high budget deficit ratio of 4% and 3 trillion yuan in special treasury bonds, Reuters has reported, citing sources.

The government is expected to unveil growth targets and stimulus plans during the annual parliament meeting in March.

Faced with mounting economic risks and deflationary pressures, top leaders in December ditched their 14-year-old “prudent” monetary policy stance for a “moderately loose” posture.

China's central bank is expected to deploy its most aggressive monetary tactics in a decade this year as it tries to revive the economy, but in doing so it risks quickly exhausting its firepower. It has already had to repeatedly shore up its defense of the yuan currency as downward pressure pushes it to 16-month lows.

Analysts polled by Reuters expected the central bank to cut the seven-day reverse repo rate, its key policy rate, by 10 basis points in the first quarter, leading to a same cut in the one-year loan prime rate (LPR) - the benchmark lending rate.

The PBOC may also cut the weighted average reserve requirement ratio (RRR) for banks by at least 25 basis points in the first quarter, the poll showed, after two cuts in 2024.

Consumer inflation will likely pick up to 0.8% in 2025 from 0.2% in 2024, and rise further to 1.4% in 2026, the poll showed.