China Unleashes Broad Stimulus Package to Revive Economy

People's Bank of China (PBoC) Governor Pan Gongsheng leaves after a press conference in Beijing, China September 24, 2024. (Reuters)
People's Bank of China (PBoC) Governor Pan Gongsheng leaves after a press conference in Beijing, China September 24, 2024. (Reuters)
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China Unleashes Broad Stimulus Package to Revive Economy

People's Bank of China (PBoC) Governor Pan Gongsheng leaves after a press conference in Beijing, China September 24, 2024. (Reuters)
People's Bank of China (PBoC) Governor Pan Gongsheng leaves after a press conference in Beijing, China September 24, 2024. (Reuters)

China has unleashed a swath of stimulus measures including cuts to its benchmark interest rate as Beijing battles a slowdown in the world’s second-largest economy.

In a rare public briefing on Tuesday, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) also announced government funding to boost the stock market and aid share buybacks, as well as more support for the stricken property sector.

With economists skeptical about whether China will hit the government’s full-year growth target of 5%, PBoC governor Pan Gongsheng said the measures aimed to “support the stable growth of China’s economy” and “promote a moderate rebound in prices.”

The package of measures sent China’s CSI 300 index of Shanghai- and Shenzhen-listed shares up 3.8% on Tuesday following the announcement.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index rose 3.9%, led by mainland Chinese companies listed in the territory.

Pan said the PBoC would reduce its short-term seven-day reverse repo rate, the central bank’s main policy rate, from 1.7% to 1.5%.

The PBoC will also cut the reserve requirement ratio, the amount of reserves lenders must hold, by 0.5 percentage points, he said, while signaling a further potential cut of 0.25 to 0.5 percentage points this year.

The RRR cut would add 1 trillion Chinese Yuan ($142 billion) in liquidity to the banking system, he said.

Goldman Sachs said in a note the “rare simultaneous cut of policy rates and RRR, the relatively large magnitude of cuts and the unusual guidance on further policy easing indicated policymakers’ growing concerns over growth headwinds.”

But economists said that with loan demand muted among households, more direct government fiscal spending would probably be needed to improve the growth outlook, according to the Financial Times.

China’s economic growth has decelerated in recent months as a prolonged slowdown in the property sector weighs on consumer sentiment.

Economists have slashed their growth forecasts to less than the government’s official target of about 5% for 2024 as deflationary forces have persisted, with producer prices declining since last year.

Robust shipments of electric vehicles, batteries and other goods have not fully offset the weaker domestic economy.

“The Chinese economy is recovering and the monetary policies introduced by our bank this time will help support the real economy, incentivize spending and investment and also provide a stable footing for the exchange rate,” Pan said.

The central bank head was joined by Li Yunze, director of the National Financial Regulatory Administration, the new financial sector watchdog, and Wu Qing, chair of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, the markets supervisor.

The officials said the government will set up a swap facility allowing securities firms, funds and insurance companies to tap liquidity from the central bank to purchase equities. There are also plans to set up a specialized re-lending facility for listed companies and major shareholders to buy back shares and raise holdings.

“A fresh stimulus push is certainly positive,” said Liu Chang, macro economist at BNP Paribas Asset Management. But with a weak economic momentum heading into the fourth quarter, officials needed to act “very quickly in the weeks ahead to implement additional measures if they wish to get to the 5% target”, Liu said.

“We think there is still a worrying lack of urgency behind their words around stimulus,” he added.

In other measures, the PBoC lowered mortgage downpayments for second homes from 25% to 15%.

Second properties had been subject to more onerous conditions to curb real estate speculation, previously a focus for President Xi Jinping.

The central bank also said it would improve the terms of a program under which it has made 300 billion Chinese Yuan available to local government-owned enterprises to help them buy unsold inventory from property developers.

But the central bank stopped short of expanding the program, amid signs it was struggling to gain traction.

Economists have said reducing China’s vast stock of unsold housing is crucial to restoring confidence and reviving domestic consumption.

China's yuan hit a 16-month high against the US dollar on Tuesday, after the central bank of the world's second-largest economy revealed the new stimulus measures.

China-sensitive assets like stocks, commodities and the euro rallied in tandem.



China Launches Late Stimulus Push to Meet 2024 Growth Target

FILE PHOTO: A worker works on a building under construction in Beijing's Central Business District (CBD), China July 14, 2024. REUTERS/Tingshu Wang/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: A worker works on a building under construction in Beijing's Central Business District (CBD), China July 14, 2024. REUTERS/Tingshu Wang/File Photo
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China Launches Late Stimulus Push to Meet 2024 Growth Target

FILE PHOTO: A worker works on a building under construction in Beijing's Central Business District (CBD), China July 14, 2024. REUTERS/Tingshu Wang/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: A worker works on a building under construction in Beijing's Central Business District (CBD), China July 14, 2024. REUTERS/Tingshu Wang/File Photo

China's central bank on Friday lowered interest rates and injected liquidity into the banking system as Beijing assembled a last-ditch stimulus assault to pull economic growth back towards this year's roughly 5% target, Reuters reported.
More fiscal measures are expected to be announced before China's week-long holidays starting on Oct. 1, after a meeting of the Communist Party's top leaders showed an increased sense of urgency about mounting economic headwinds.
On the heels of the Politburo huddle, China plans to issue special sovereign bonds worth about 2 trillion yuan ($284.43 billion) this year as part of fresh fiscal stimulus, two sources with knowledge of the matter have told Reuters.
Capital Economics chief Asia Economist Mark Williams estimates the package "would lift annual output by 0.4% relative to what it would otherwise have been."
"It's late in the year, but a new package of this size that was implemented soon should be enough to deliver growth in line with the 'around 5%' target," he said.
Chinese stocks are on track for the best week since 2008 on stimulus expectations.
The world's second-largest economy faces strong deflationary pressures due to a sharp property market downturn and frail consumer confidence, which have exposed its over-reliance on exports in an increasingly tense global trade environment.
A wide range of economic data in recent months has missed forecasts, raising concerns among economists that the growth target was at risk and that a longer-term structural slowdown could be in play.
On Friday, data showed industrial profits swinging back to a sharp contraction in August.
"We believe the persistent growth weakness has hit policymakers' pain threshold," Goldman Sachs analysts said in a note.
As flagged on Tuesday by Governor Pan Gongsheng, the People's Bank of China on Friday trimmed the amount of cash that banks must hold as reserves, known as the reserve requirement ratio (RRR), by 50 basis points, the second such reduction this year.
The move is expected to release 1 trillion yuan ($142.5 billion) in liquidity into the banking system and was accompanied by a cut in the benchmark interest rate on seven-day reverse repurchase agreements by 20 bps to 1.50%. The cuts take effect on Friday and Pan, in rare forward-looking remarks, left the door open to another RRR reduction later this year.

Given weak credit demand from households and businesses, investors are more focused on the fiscal measures that are widely expected to be announced in coming days.
Reuters reported on Thursday that 1 trillion yuan due to be raised via special bonds will be used to increase subsidies for a consumer goods replacement program and for the upgrade of large-scale business equipment.
They will also be used to provide a monthly allowance of about 800 yuan, or $114, per child to all households with two or more children, excluding the first child.
China aims to raise another 1 trillion yuan via a separate special sovereign debt issuance to help local governments tackle their debt problems.
Bloomberg News reported on Thursday that China is also considering the injection up to 1 trillion yuan of capital into its biggest state banks.
Most of China's fiscal stimulus still goes into investment, but returns are dwindling and the spending has saddled local governments with $13 trillion in debt.
The looming fiscal measures would mark a slight shift towards stimulating consumption, a direction Beijing has said for more than a decade that it wants to take but has made little progress on.
China's household spending is less than 40% of annual economic output, some 20 percentage points below the global average. Investment, by comparison, is 20 points above but has been fueling much more debt than growth.
The politburo also pledged to stabilize the troubled real estate market, saying the government should expand a white list of housing projects that can receive further financing and revitalize idle land.
The September meeting is not usually a forum for discussing the economy, which suggests growing anxiety among officials.
"The 'shock and awe' strategy could be meant to jumpstart the markets and boost confidence," Nomura analysts said in a note.
"But eventually it is still necessary for Beijing to introduce well thought policies to address many of the deep-rooted problems, particularly regarding how to stabilize the property sector."