Will Escalation Stop Israeli Gas Production?

File photo of the Israeli Leviathan field (Reuters)
File photo of the Israeli Leviathan field (Reuters)
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Will Escalation Stop Israeli Gas Production?

File photo of the Israeli Leviathan field (Reuters)
File photo of the Israeli Leviathan field (Reuters)

The American energy giant Chevron, which operates the Leviathan field off the Mediterranean coast of Israel, has decided to suspend work on laying an underwater pipeline, part of its third pipeline project, due to the escalating conflict and fears of potential missile strikes. This follows the earlier closure of the Tamar and Leviathan gas platforms as a “precautionary measure” during the Iranian attack on Israel on Oct. 1.

These developments came as the Israeli newspaper Yedioth Ahronoth reported that the Leviathan field, located 130 kilometers off the coast of Haifa, was the target of a missile barrage fired by Hezbollah on Wednesday morning at Mount Carmel and Haifa. Chevron subsequently activated “special procedures,” stating that it was dealing with an operational incident on the drilling platform.

During last week’s Iranian missile attack, Yedioth Ahronoth noted that NewMed Energy, a partner in the Leviathan and Tamar gas fields (the latter located about 19 kilometers off the Gaza Strip coast), informed the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange of Chevron’s decision to temporarily shut down the Leviathan field for several hours.

“In light of the latest security developments and based on the system’s operational considerations, the operator occasionally halts production from the Leviathan reservoir for certain periods,” NewMed Energy, which holds a 45.3% stake in Leviathan, stated to the stock exchange.

Chevron holds a 39.6% stake in Leviathan, while Ratio Energies owns 15% of the project. Chevron also has a 15% stake in Tamar.

Leviathan’s partners approved a $429 million investment on Aug. 1 to launch the preliminary engineering design phase to increase Leviathan’s gas export capacity from the Mediterranean Sea field to 21 billion cubic meters annually.

NewMed Energy stated that Chevron had informed the partners that plans for laying the underwater pipeline have been postponed until Apr. 2025—initially scheduled to begin in the second half of 2025—due to the deteriorating security situation. The delay is expected to be at least six months, affecting next year’s projected cash flow.

Currently, gas from the platform is transported to the shore and integrated into Israel’s national grid, where it is distributed to Israel, Egypt, and Jordan.

The Leviathan field was discovered in 2010 by NewMed Energy, Chevron (then known as Noble Energy), and Ratio. Natural gas production from Leviathan began on December 31, 2019, and since then, it has become a key source of gas for Israel, Egypt, and Jordan.

The third pipeline project was initiated by the Leviathan partners in July 2023, aimed at boosting Leviathan’s annual production capacity from 12 billion cubic meters to around 21 billion cubic meters. This increase is intended to meet growing local demand and export to neighboring countries and international markets, according to NewMed Energy.

Israel continues to export gas through pipelines from Leviathan and Tamar to Jordan and Egypt. Israeli exports to Egypt rose from 4.9 billion cubic meters in 2022 to 6.3 billion cubic meters in 2023, while sales to Jordan remained steady year-on-year at 2.7 billion cubic meters. In the second quarter of this year, Leviathan’s total gas production reached 2.8 billion cubic meters, with exports to Egypt rising by 12.5% to 1.8 billion cubic meters during the same period, while 0.6 billion cubic meters flowed to Jordan, according to Energy Intelligence.

Goldman Sachs estimates that the potential global market impact of disruptions at Leviathan and Tamar could reduce global liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply by nearly 9 billion cubic meters annually, or 1.7% of global LNG supplies, according to a report by Energy Intelligence.



Iran Oil Exports Slump to Multiyear Lows

An Iranian oil field. Reuters file phto
An Iranian oil field. Reuters file phto
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Iran Oil Exports Slump to Multiyear Lows

An Iranian oil field. Reuters file phto
An Iranian oil field. Reuters file phto

Iran's crude export loadings have fallen sharply, according to observed and estimated tanker loadings, as Tehran braces for a potential strike on the country's key oil infrastructure as part of an Israeli retaliation that could impact Middle Eastern oil supplies.

Iran's last crude export cargo was estimated to have loaded on Oct. 4 with only one other cargo seen since Sept. 29, when the geopolitical conflict between Iran and Israel escalated, according to S&P Global Commodities at Sea.

Although many Iranian crude exports are shipped in 'dark' tankers not transmitting GPS location signals, CAS estimates that Iran's crude exports slumped to 237,000 b/d in the week to Oct. 6, the lowest weekly total in at least two years.

Iran normally ships 7-10 crude cargoes each week with export flows averaging 1.7 million b/d so far this year, up from 1.1 million b/d in 2022, according to the data.

The export slowdown from Iran comes after satellite images circulated on social media Oct. 3 appearing to show tankers leaving Kharg Island, Iran's top crude terminal which handles about 90% of its exports. Traders speculated that Iran was keen to move unladen tankers away from their anchorages at Kharg Island to avoid damage from a potential Israeli strike. Exports from Kharg Island may have now resumed, however, with a 657,000-barrel cargo of Iranian crude lifted there on Oct 4, the CAS data shows.

Fears of a major escalation in the conflict hitting regional oil supplies were sparked by US President Joe Biden on Oct. 3 when he said the US was discussing potential attacks on Iranian oil facilities with Israel. Iran's military head responded saying Tehran would hit back harder at Israel with a "stronger response," if attacked.