Oil Heads for Weekly Climb on Potential Mideast Supply Disruption

FILE PHOTO: A view shows an oil pump jack outside Almetyevsk in the Republic of Tatarstan, Russia, June 4, 2023. REUTERS/Alexander Manzyuk/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: A view shows an oil pump jack outside Almetyevsk in the Republic of Tatarstan, Russia, June 4, 2023. REUTERS/Alexander Manzyuk/File Photo
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Oil Heads for Weekly Climb on Potential Mideast Supply Disruption

FILE PHOTO: A view shows an oil pump jack outside Almetyevsk in the Republic of Tatarstan, Russia, June 4, 2023. REUTERS/Alexander Manzyuk/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: A view shows an oil pump jack outside Almetyevsk in the Republic of Tatarstan, Russia, June 4, 2023. REUTERS/Alexander Manzyuk/File Photo

Oil prices softened on Friday but were set for a second weekly gain as investors weighed the impact of hurricane damage on US demand against any broad supply disruption if Israel attacks Iranian oil sites.

Brent crude oil futures were down 73 cents, or 0.9%, at $78.67 a barrel by 1208 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate crude futures slipped 71 cents, also 0.9%, to $75.14 per barrel.

For the week, both benchmarks were headed for gains, Reuters reported.

"A potential Israeli attack on Iranian oil... infrastructure poses a binary outcome for oil markets, as it could reduce the elevated spare capacity overhang on prices while inducing a significant geopolitical risk premium, which explains the recent surge in oil market volatility," Barclays said in a client note.

Yeap Jun Rong, market strategist at IG, said reservations over high crude inventories and a possibly more gradual monetary easing by the US Federal Reserve have put the recent rally on hold.

In the US, Hurricane Milton plowed into the Atlantic Ocean on Thursday after cutting a destructive path across Florida, killing at least 10 people and leaving millions without power. The destruction could dampen fuel consumption in some areas of the world's largest oil producer and consumer.

Crude benchmarks spiked this month after Iran launched more than 180 missiles against Israel on Oct. 1, raising the prospect of retaliation against Iranian oil facilities. Israel has yet to respond, and crude benchmarks have eased and remained relatively flat through the week.

Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant has said that any strike against Iran would be "lethal, precise and surprising".



Russia's Central Bank Holds Off on Interest Rate Hike

People skate at an ice rink installed at the Red Square decorated for the New Year and Christmas festivities, with the St. Basil's Cathedral, left, and the Kremlin, right, in the background in Moscow, Russia, Friday, Dec. 20, 2024. (AP Photo/Alexander Zemlianichenko)
People skate at an ice rink installed at the Red Square decorated for the New Year and Christmas festivities, with the St. Basil's Cathedral, left, and the Kremlin, right, in the background in Moscow, Russia, Friday, Dec. 20, 2024. (AP Photo/Alexander Zemlianichenko)
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Russia's Central Bank Holds Off on Interest Rate Hike

People skate at an ice rink installed at the Red Square decorated for the New Year and Christmas festivities, with the St. Basil's Cathedral, left, and the Kremlin, right, in the background in Moscow, Russia, Friday, Dec. 20, 2024. (AP Photo/Alexander Zemlianichenko)
People skate at an ice rink installed at the Red Square decorated for the New Year and Christmas festivities, with the St. Basil's Cathedral, left, and the Kremlin, right, in the background in Moscow, Russia, Friday, Dec. 20, 2024. (AP Photo/Alexander Zemlianichenko)

Russia's central bank has left its benchmark interest rate at 21%, holding off on further increases as it struggles to snuff out inflation fueled by the government's spending on the war against Ukraine.
The decision comes amid criticism from influential business figures, including tycoons close to the Kremlin, that high rates are putting the brakes on business activity and the economy.
According to The Associated Press, the central bank said in a statement that credit conditions had tightened “more than envisaged” by the October rate hike that brought the benchmark to its current record level.
The bank said it would assess the need for any future increases at its next meeting and that inflation was expected to fall to an annual 4% next year from its current 9.5%
Factories are running three shifts making everything from vehicles to clothing for the military, while a labor shortage is driving up wages and fat enlistment bonuses are putting more rubles in people's bank accounts to spend. All that is driving up prices.
On top of that, the weakening Russian ruble raises the prices of imported goods like cars and consumer electronics from China, which has become Russia's biggest trade partner since Western sanctions disrupted economic relations with Europe and the US.
High rates can dampen inflation but also make it more expensive for businesses to get the credit they need to operate and invest.
Critics of the central bank rates and its Governor Elvira Nabiullina have included Sergei Chemezov, the head of state-controlled defense and technology conglomerate Rostec, and steel magnate Alexei Mordashov.
Russian President Vladimir Putin opened his annual news conference on Thursday by saying the economy is on track to grow by nearly 4% this year and that while inflation is “an alarming sign," wages have risen at the same rate and that "on the whole, this situation is stable and secure.”
He acknowledged there had been criticism of the central bank, saying that “some experts believe that the Central Bank could have been more effective and could have started using certain instruments earlier.”
Nabiullina said in November that while the economy is growing, “the rise in prices for the vast majority of goods and services shows that demand is outrunning the expansion of economic capacity and the economy’s potential.”
Russia's military spending is enabled by oil exports, which have shifted from Europe to new customers in India and China who aren't observing sanctions such as a $60 per barrel price cap on Russian oil sales.