Oil Prices Rise 1% as Mideast Attacks Heighten Supply Concerns

This picture taken from the area of Dbayeh north of Beirut shows an oil tanker docked off the coast of Beirut on October 24, 2024 amid the ongoing war between Israel and Hezbollah. (Photo by Joseph EID / AFP)
This picture taken from the area of Dbayeh north of Beirut shows an oil tanker docked off the coast of Beirut on October 24, 2024 amid the ongoing war between Israel and Hezbollah. (Photo by Joseph EID / AFP)
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Oil Prices Rise 1% as Mideast Attacks Heighten Supply Concerns

This picture taken from the area of Dbayeh north of Beirut shows an oil tanker docked off the coast of Beirut on October 24, 2024 amid the ongoing war between Israel and Hezbollah. (Photo by Joseph EID / AFP)
This picture taken from the area of Dbayeh north of Beirut shows an oil tanker docked off the coast of Beirut on October 24, 2024 amid the ongoing war between Israel and Hezbollah. (Photo by Joseph EID / AFP)

Oil prices rose more than 1% on Thursday, reversing some of the previous session's losses, as the Middle East conflict and reports of North Korean troops ready to help Russia in Ukraine kept traders on edge ahead of the US presidential election.

Brent crude futures were up $1.26, or 1.7%, to $76.22 a barrel as of 0905 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate crude futures climbed $1.26, or 1.8%, to $72.03, Reuters reported.

Oil prices have gained about 4% this week after shedding more than 7% last week on concerns of oversupply and weak demand and a perceived calming of Middle East tensions.

"The opposing forces of economic anxiety, loose oil balance and potential war-related supply disruptions will ensure that no clear oil price direction emerges in the immediate future whilst the risk remains skewed to the downside in the medium term," said Tamas Varga of oil broker PVM.

On Wednesday, the US said for the first time it had seen evidence North Korea has sent 3,000 troops to Russia for possible deployment in Ukraine, a move that could mark a significant escalation in Russia's war against its neighbor.

In the Middle East, an exchange of heavy fire between Israel and Hezbollah heightened supply concerns, as Israeli strikes also hit the Syrian capital Damascus early on Thursday, Syrian state media reported.

That escalation comes as Washington makes a push for peace between Israel and Iran-backed groups Hezbollah and Hamas before the Nov. 5 US presidential election that could alter both its Middle East and oil policy.

"Trump is leading over (Kamala) Harris based on current data from betting markets and Trump has proposed making the US a major oil supplier," said OANDA senior market analyst Kelvin Wong, adding that could depress prices.

While betting markets put Trump ahead, other polls show the result is currently too close to call.



Oil Slumps More than 4% after Iran Downplays Israeli Strikes

Oil pump jacks work at sunset near Midland, Texas, US, August 21, 2019. REUTERS/Jessica Lutz/File Photo
Oil pump jacks work at sunset near Midland, Texas, US, August 21, 2019. REUTERS/Jessica Lutz/File Photo
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Oil Slumps More than 4% after Iran Downplays Israeli Strikes

Oil pump jacks work at sunset near Midland, Texas, US, August 21, 2019. REUTERS/Jessica Lutz/File Photo
Oil pump jacks work at sunset near Midland, Texas, US, August 21, 2019. REUTERS/Jessica Lutz/File Photo

Oil prices tumbled more than $3 a barrel on Monday after Israel's retaliatory strike on Iran over the weekend bypassed Tehran's oil and nuclear facilities and did not disrupt energy supplies, easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
Both Brent and US West Texas Intermediate crude futures hit their lowest levels since Oct. 1 at the open. By 0750 GMT, Brent was at $72.92 a barrel, down $3.13, or 4.1%, while WTI slipped $3.15, or 4.4%, to $68.63 a barrel, Reuters said.
The benchmarks gained 4% last week in volatile trade as markets priced in uncertainty around the extent of Israel's response to the Iranian missile attack on Oct. 1 and the US election next month.
Scores of Israeli jets completed three waves of strikes before dawn on Saturday against missile factories and other sites near Tehran and in western Iran, in the latest exchange in the escalating conflict between the Middle Eastern rivals.
The geopolitical risk premium that had built in oil prices in anticipation of Israel's retaliatory attack came off, analysts said.
"The more limited nature of the strikes, including avoiding oil infrastructure, have raised hopes for a de-escalatory pathway, which has seen the risk premium come off a few dollars a barrel," Saul Kavonic, a Sydney-based energy analyst at MST Marquee, said.
"The market will be watching closely for confirmation Iran won't counter attack in the coming weeks, which could see the risk premium rise again."
Commonwealth Bank of Australia analyst Vivek Dhar expects market attention to turn to ceasefire talks between Israel and Iran-backed militant group Hamas that resumed over the weekend.
"Despite Israel’s choice of a low aggression response to Iran, we have doubts that Israel and Iran’s proxies (i.e. Hamas and Hezbollah) are on track for an enduring ceasefire," he said in a note.
Citi lowered its Brent price target in the next three months to $70 a barrel from $74, factoring in a lower risk premium in the near term, its analysts led by Max Layton said in a note.
Analyst Tim Evans at US-based Evans Energy said in a note: "We think this leaves the market at least somewhat undervalued, with some risk OPEC+ producers may push back the planned increase in output targets beyond December."
In October, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies, a group known as OPEC+, kept their oil output policy unchanged including a plan to start raising output from December. The group will meet on Dec. 1 ahead of a full meeting of OPEC+.