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Russian Rouble Dips to 100 to Dollar as Trump Declares Election Win

The US Embassy with a US national flag, seen behind a building with a Russian national flag in Moscow, Russia, Tuesday, Nov. 5, 2024. (AP Photo/Alexander Zemlianichenko)
The US Embassy with a US national flag, seen behind a building with a Russian national flag in Moscow, Russia, Tuesday, Nov. 5, 2024. (AP Photo/Alexander Zemlianichenko)
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Russian Rouble Dips to 100 to Dollar as Trump Declares Election Win

The US Embassy with a US national flag, seen behind a building with a Russian national flag in Moscow, Russia, Tuesday, Nov. 5, 2024. (AP Photo/Alexander Zemlianichenko)
The US Embassy with a US national flag, seen behind a building with a Russian national flag in Moscow, Russia, Tuesday, Nov. 5, 2024. (AP Photo/Alexander Zemlianichenko)

The Russian rouble briefly weakened to 100 against the dollar on Wednesday as Donald Trump claimed victory in the US presidential election, a result that could push the U.S. currency higher.
Trump claimed victory in the 2024 presidential contest after Fox News projected that he had defeated Democrat Kamala Harris, which would cap a stunning political comeback four years after he left the White House.
By 0737 GMT, the rouble was 0.2% weaker against the dollar at 98.00, earlier touching 100.25, close to its weakest point in over a year, Reuters reported.
The rouble was steady against the yuan at 13.73, according to LSEG data, and gained 1.2% to 105.6 against the euro.
Analysts generally assume Trump's plans for restricted immigration, tax cuts and sweeping tariffs if enacted would put more upward pressure on inflation and bond yields, than Harris' center-left policies.
Trump's proposals would also tend to push up the dollar and potentially limit how far US interest rates might ultimately be lowered. Trump has also criticized the level of US military support for Ukraine and has pledged to end the conflict soon.
Western sanctions imposed on the Moscow Exchange (MOEX) and its clearing agent, the National Clearing Center, on June 12 stopped all trade in dollars and euros at MOEX, making the yuan the most-traded foreign currency in Russia.
Trade in dollars and euros has shifted to the over-the-counter (OTC) market, obscuring price data.
One-day rouble-dollar futures, which trade on the Moscow exchange are a guide for OTC market rates. The central bank's official exchange rate, which it calculates using OTC data, was last set at 98.06 to the dollar.

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Aramco Maintains $31 Billion in Dividends Despite Profit Decline

Aramco’s pavilion at the Global Future Investment Initiative conference held in Riyadh (FII webiste)
Aramco’s pavilion at the Global Future Investment Initiative conference held in Riyadh (FII webiste)
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Aramco Maintains $31 Billion in Dividends Despite Profit Decline

Aramco’s pavilion at the Global Future Investment Initiative conference held in Riyadh (FII webiste)
Aramco’s pavilion at the Global Future Investment Initiative conference held in Riyadh (FII webiste)

Saudi Aramco retained its position as the world’s top dividend distributor, maintaining its quarterly payouts at $31.05 billion, despite a 15.4% year-over-year drop in third-quarter net profit to $27.6 billion, surpassing analyst expectations of $26.3 billion. The profit decline was mainly attributed to lower crude oil prices and weaker margins in its chemicals segment, though partly offset by reduced production royalties, income tax, and zakat.

According to Aramco’s data, the average oil price during Q3 2023 was $79.3 per barrel, down 11.2% from $89.3 per barrel in Q3 2022. The company’s dividend distributions include $20.3 billion in base dividends and $10.8 billion in performance-linked payouts scheduled for Q4.

Aramco’s CEO, Amin Nasser, highlighted the company’s strong net income and free cash flow despite the lower oil prices. He affirmed Aramco’s commitment to maintaining positive momentum and strengthening its position as a global leader in energy and petrochemicals.

In remarks to Asharq Al-Awsat, Mohammed Al-Farraj, Senior Asset Management Officer at Arbah Financial, explained the 15.4% profit decline was driven by several factors, primarily lower crude oil prices, which directly affect Aramco’s revenue and profits. Additionally, the chemicals and refining businesses faced weak profit margins due to challenges like rising operational costs and a global demand slowdown. Economic factors such as inflation and higher interest rates also impacted energy demand, pressuring Aramco’s earnings.

Al-Farraj further noted that while oil price drops reduce Aramco’s revenue and impact refining margins, the chemicals sector faces additional challenges from higher raw material and energy costs, as well as intense competition. Despite these challenges, Aramco remains committed to its generous dividend policy, reflected in its substantial quarterly payout of $31.05 billion.

Aramco’s stock remained stable, trading at SAR27.55, up by about 0.2%. According to Al-Farraj, investor confidence in Aramco is bolstered by its financial strength and regular dividends, with strong growth prospects in renewable energy and petrochemical investments.

Energy researcher and OPEC Research Fellow Dr. Youssef Al-Shammari added that Aramco has become more resilient and less dependent on oil prices for profitability. He noted that Aramco’s financial and investment strategies make it less vulnerable to oil price fluctuations. Additionally, he pointed out a general decline in global refining margins due to weaker global demand.