Federal Reserve Cuts Key Interest Rate by a Quarter-point

US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell attends a press conference following a two-day meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee on interest rate policy in Washington, US, November 7, 2024. REUTERS/Annabelle Gordon
US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell attends a press conference following a two-day meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee on interest rate policy in Washington, US, November 7, 2024. REUTERS/Annabelle Gordon
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Federal Reserve Cuts Key Interest Rate by a Quarter-point

US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell attends a press conference following a two-day meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee on interest rate policy in Washington, US, November 7, 2024. REUTERS/Annabelle Gordon
US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell attends a press conference following a two-day meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee on interest rate policy in Washington, US, November 7, 2024. REUTERS/Annabelle Gordon

The Federal Reserve cut its key interest rate Thursday by a quarter-point in response to the steady decline in the once-high inflation that had angered Americans and helped drive Donald Trump’s presidential election victory this week.
The rate cut follows a larger half-point reduction in September, and it reflects the Fed’s renewed focus on supporting the job market as well as fighting inflation, which now barely exceeds the central bank’s 2% target, The Associated Press reported.
Asked at a news conference how Trump's election might affect the Fed's policymaking, Chair Jerome Powell said that "in the near term, the election will have no effects on our (interest rate) decisions.”
But Trump’s election, beyond its economic consequences, has raised the specter of meddling by the White House in the Fed’s policy decisions. Trump has argued that as president, he should have a voice in the central bank’s interest rate decisions. The Fed has long guarded its role as an independent agency able to make difficult decisions about borrowing rates, free from political interference. Yet in his previous term in the White House, Trump publicly attacked Powell after the Fed raised rates to fight inflation, and he may do so again.
Asked whether he would resign if Trump asked him to, Powell, who will have a year left in his second four-year term as Fed chair when Trump takes office, replied simply, “No.”
And Powell said that in his view, Trump could not fire or demote him: It would “not be permitted under the law,” he said.
Thursday’s Fed rate cut reduced its benchmark rate to about 4.6%, down from a four-decade high of 5.3%. The Fed had kept its rate that high for more than a year to fight the worst inflation streak in four decades. Annual inflation has since fallen from a 9.1% peak in mid-2022 to a 3 1/2-year low of 2.4% in September.
When its latest policy meeting ended Thursday, the Fed issued a statement noting that the "unemployment rate has moved up but remains low,” and while inflation has fallen closer to the 2% target level, it “remains somewhat elevated.”
After their rate cut in September — their first such move in more than four years — the policymakers had projected that they would make further quarter-point cuts in November and December and four more next year. But with the economy now mostly solid and Wall Street anticipating faster growth, larger budget deficits and higher inflation under a Trump presidency, further rate cuts may have become less likely. Rate cuts by the Fed typically lead over time to lower borrowing costs for consumers and businesses.
Powell declined to be pinned down Thursday on whether the Fed would proceed with an additional quarter-point rate cut in December or the four rate cuts its policymakers penciled in for 2025.



Oil Prices Steady as Markets Weigh Demand against US Inventories

FILE - Pump jacks extract oil from beneath the ground in North Dakota, May 19, 2021. (AP Photo/Matthew Brown, File)
FILE - Pump jacks extract oil from beneath the ground in North Dakota, May 19, 2021. (AP Photo/Matthew Brown, File)
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Oil Prices Steady as Markets Weigh Demand against US Inventories

FILE - Pump jacks extract oil from beneath the ground in North Dakota, May 19, 2021. (AP Photo/Matthew Brown, File)
FILE - Pump jacks extract oil from beneath the ground in North Dakota, May 19, 2021. (AP Photo/Matthew Brown, File)

Oil prices were little changed on Thursday as investors weighed firm winter fuel demand expectations against large US fuel inventories and macroeconomic concerns.

Brent crude futures were down 3 cents at $76.13 a barrel by 1003 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate crude futures dipped 10 cents to $73.22.

Both benchmarks fell more than 1% on Wednesday as a stronger dollar and a bigger than expected rise in US fuel stockpiles pressured prices.

"The oil market is still grappling with opposite forces - seasonal demand to support the bulls and macro data that supports a stronger US dollar in the medium term ... that can put a ceiling to prevent the bulls from advancing further," said OANDA senior market analyst Kelvin Wong.

JPMorgan analysts expect oil demand for January to expand by 1.4 million barrels per day (bpd) year on year to 101.4 million bpd, primarily driven by increased use of heating fuels in the Northern Hemisphere.

"Global oil demand is expected to remain strong throughout January, fuelled by colder than normal winter conditions that are boosting heating fuel consumption, as well as an earlier onset of travel activities in China for the Lunar New Year holidays," the analysts said.

The market structure in Brent futures is also indicating that traders are becoming more concerned about supply tightening at the same time demand is increasing.

The premium of the front-month Brent contract over the six-month contract reached its widest since August on Wednesday. A widening of this backwardation, when futures for prompt delivery are higher than for later delivery, typically indicates that supply is declining or demand is increasing.

Nevertheless, official Energy Information Administration (EIA) data showed rising gasoline and distillates stockpiles in the United States last week.

The dollar strengthened further on Thursday, underpinned by rising Treasury yields ahead of US President-elect Donald Trump's entrance into the White House on Jan. 20.

Looking ahead, WTI crude oil is expected to oscillate within a range of $67.55 to $77.95 into February as the market awaits more clarity on Trump's administration policies and fresh fiscal stimulus measures out of China, OANDA's Wong said.