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IMF Approves Third Review of Sri Lanka's $2.9 Bln Bailout

Peter Breuer, Senior Mission Chief for Sri Lanka at the IMF along with Katsiaryna Svirydzenka, Deputy Mission Chief for Sri Lanka at the IMF and Martha Tesfaye Woldemichael, Deputy Mission Chief for Sri Lanka at the IMF, attend a press conference organized by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in Colombo, Sri Lanka, November 23, 2024. REUTERS/Thilina Kaluthotage
Peter Breuer, Senior Mission Chief for Sri Lanka at the IMF along with Katsiaryna Svirydzenka, Deputy Mission Chief for Sri Lanka at the IMF and Martha Tesfaye Woldemichael, Deputy Mission Chief for Sri Lanka at the IMF, attend a press conference organized by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in Colombo, Sri Lanka, November 23, 2024. REUTERS/Thilina Kaluthotage
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IMF Approves Third Review of Sri Lanka's $2.9 Bln Bailout

Peter Breuer, Senior Mission Chief for Sri Lanka at the IMF along with Katsiaryna Svirydzenka, Deputy Mission Chief for Sri Lanka at the IMF and Martha Tesfaye Woldemichael, Deputy Mission Chief for Sri Lanka at the IMF, attend a press conference organized by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in Colombo, Sri Lanka, November 23, 2024. REUTERS/Thilina Kaluthotage
Peter Breuer, Senior Mission Chief for Sri Lanka at the IMF along with Katsiaryna Svirydzenka, Deputy Mission Chief for Sri Lanka at the IMF and Martha Tesfaye Woldemichael, Deputy Mission Chief for Sri Lanka at the IMF, attend a press conference organized by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in Colombo, Sri Lanka, November 23, 2024. REUTERS/Thilina Kaluthotage

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) approved the third review of Sri Lanka's $2.9 billion bailout on Saturday but warned that the economy remains vulnerable.
In a statement, the global lender said it would release about $333 million, bringing total funding to around $1.3 billion, to the crisis-hit South Asian nation. It said signs of an economic recovery were emerging, Reuters reported.
In a note of caution, it said "the critical next steps are to complete the commercial debt restructuring, finalize bilateral agreements with official creditors along the lines of the accord with the Official Creditor Committee and implement the terms of the other agreements. This will help restore Sri Lanka's debt sustainability."
Cash-strapped Sri Lanka plunged into its worst financial crisis in more than seven decades in 2022 with a severe dollar shortage sending inflation soaring to 70%, its currency to record lows and its economy contracting by 7.3% during the worst of the fallout and by 2.3% last year.
"Maintaining macroeconomic stability and restoring debt sustainability are key to securing Sri Lanka's prosperity and require persevering with responsible fiscal policy," the IMF said.
The IMF bailout secured in March last year helped stabilize economic conditions. The rupee has risen 11.3% in recent months and inflation disappeared, with prices falling 0.8% last month.
The island nation's economy is expected to grow 4.4% this year, the first increase in three years, according to the World Bank.
However, Sri Lanka still needs to complete a $12.5 billion debt restructuring with bondholders, which President Anura Kumara Dissanayake aims to finalize in December.
Sri Lanka will enter into individual agreements with bilateral creditors including Japan, China and India needed to complete a $10 billion debt restructuring, Dissanayake said.
He won the presidency in September, and his leftist coalition won a record 159 seats in the 225-member parliament in a general election last week.

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China State Media Warn Trump against Mutually Destructive Tariff War

A shopper walks with his purchases at Plaza Las Americas Mall near the US-Mexico border in San Ysidro, California, on November 26, 2024. (AFP)
A shopper walks with his purchases at Plaza Las Americas Mall near the US-Mexico border in San Ysidro, California, on November 26, 2024. (AFP)
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China State Media Warn Trump against Mutually Destructive Tariff War

A shopper walks with his purchases at Plaza Las Americas Mall near the US-Mexico border in San Ysidro, California, on November 26, 2024. (AFP)
A shopper walks with his purchases at Plaza Las Americas Mall near the US-Mexico border in San Ysidro, California, on November 26, 2024. (AFP)

China's state media warned US President-elect Donald Trump his pledge to slap additional tariffs on Chinese goods over fentanyl flows could drag the world's top two economies into a mutually destructive tariff war.

Trump, who takes office on Jan. 20, said on Monday he would impose "an additional 10% tariff, above any additional tariffs" on imports from China until Beijing clamped down on trafficking of the chemical precursors used to make the deadly drug.

The two superpowers are setting out their positions ahead of the former president's return to the White House. Trump's first term resulted in a trade war that uprooted global supply chains and hurt every economy as inflation and borrowing costs shot up.

Editorials in Chinese communist party mouthpieces China Daily and the Global Times late on Tuesday warned the next occupant of 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue to not make China a "scapegoat" for the US' fentanyl crisis or "take China's goodwill for granted regarding anti-drug cooperation."

"The excuse the president-elect has given to justify his threat of additional tariffs on imports from China is farfetched," China Daily said.

"There are no winners in tariff wars. If the US continues to politicize economic and trade issues by weaponizing tariffs, it will leave no party unscathed."

Economists have begun downgrading their growth targets for China's $19 trillion economy for 2025 and 2026 in anticipation of further tariffs promised by Trump during the election campaign, and are warning Americans to brace for an increase in the cost of living.

"For now, the only thing we know for sure is that the risks in this area are high," said Louis Kuijs, chief Asia economist at S&P Global Ratings, which on Sunday lowered its China growth forecast for 2025 and 2026 to 4.1% and 3.8%, respectively.

"What we assumed in our baseline is an across-the-board (tariff) increase from around 14% now to 25%. Thus, what we assumed is a bit more than the 10% on all imports from China."

Trump is threatening Beijing with far higher tariffs than the 7.5%-25% levied on Chinese goods during his first term.

"China already has a template for dealing with the previous US tariff policy," the Global Times quoted Gao Lingyun, an analyst at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences in Beijing, as saying.

"Using counternarcotics issues to increase tariffs on Chinese goods is untenable and unpersuasive," Gao added.

Chinese President Xi Jinping told former Singaporean Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong that China's economy would continue to grow and develop in the long-term during a meeting in Beijing on Tuesday after Trump's comments, state news agency Xinhua said.

Lee reportedly told Xi "no one should underestimate the Chinese people's determination for their nation to succeed and stand tall in the world," a remark which a separate Global Times piece said was "also meant for some people in (the) international community."

Profits at Chinese firms fell 10% year-on-year in October, data showed on Wednesday, showing how companies are struggling to remain profitable in an economy that is far more vulnerable to trade shocks this time around.

Economists in a Reuters poll last week expected additional US tariffs ranging from 15% to 60%. Most said Beijing will need to inject more stimulus to boost economic growth and offset pressure on exports.

TRADE WAR TWO

Trump previously said he would introduce tariffs in excess of 60% on Chinese goods.

The threat is rattling China's industrial complex, which sells goods worth more than $400 billion annually to the US and hundreds of billions more in components for products Americans buy from elsewhere.

His pick of trade lawyer Jamieson Greer as new US trade representative elevates a key veteran of Trump's first term trade war against China and points to a bruising four years for trade negotiators the world over.

Greer served as chief of staff to Trump's former US Trade Robert Lighthizer, the architect of Trump's original tariffs on some $370 billion worth of Chinese imports and the renegotiation of the North American free trade deal with Canada and Mexico.

The president-elect looks set to tear up that agreement on his first day in office.

Trump on Monday also pledged 25% tariffs on goods from Mexico and Canada, saying the US' neighbors were not doing enough to stop drugs and migrants crossing their borders.

But China can expect to bear the brunt of Trump's efforts to bring down the US' trade deficit and bring about the "manufacturing renaissance" he promised on the campaign trail.

"What the future will bring on this front is hard to say," S&P Global's Kuijs said. "There are many uncertainties. There is still a large increase to go to get to 60%."