Iran's Rial Hits a Record Low, Battered by Regional Tensions and Energy Crisis

An Iranian trader counts money in Tehran's Grand Bazaar. (Reuters)
An Iranian trader counts money in Tehran's Grand Bazaar. (Reuters)
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Iran's Rial Hits a Record Low, Battered by Regional Tensions and Energy Crisis

An Iranian trader counts money in Tehran's Grand Bazaar. (Reuters)
An Iranian trader counts money in Tehran's Grand Bazaar. (Reuters)

The Iranian rial on Wednesday fell to its lowest level in history, losing more than 10% of value since Donald Trump won the US presidential election in November and signaling new challenges for Tehran as it remains locked in the wars raging in the Middle East.

The rial traded at 777,000 rials to the dollar, traders in Tehran said, down from 703,000 rials on the day Trump won.

Iran’s Central Bank has in the past flooded the market with more hard currencies in an attempt to improve the rate.

In an interview with state television Tuesday night, Central Bank Gov. Mohammad Reza Farzin said that the supply of foreign currency would increase and the exchange rate would be stabilized. He said that $220 million had been injected into the currency market, The AP reported.

The currency plunged as Iran ordered the closure of schools, universities, and government offices on Wednesday due to a worsening energy crisis exacerbated by harsh winter conditions. The crisis follows a summer of blackouts and is now compounded by severe cold, snow and air pollution.

Despite Iran’s vast natural gas and oil reserves, years of underinvestment and sanctions have left the energy sector ill-prepared for seasonal surges, leading to rolling blackouts and gas shortages.

In 2015, during Iran’s nuclear deal with world powers, the rial was at 32,000 to $1. On July 30, the day that Iran’s reformist President Masoud Pezeshkian was sworn in and began his term, the rate was 584,000 to $1.

Trump unilaterally withdrew America from the accord in 2018, sparking years of tensions between the countries that persist today.

Iran’s economy has struggled for years under crippling international sanctions over its rapidly advancing nuclear program, which now enriches uranium at near weapons-grade levels.

Pezeshkian, elected after a helicopter crash killed hard-line President Ebrahim Raisi in May, came to power on a promise to reach a deal to ease Western sanctions.

Tensions still remain high between the nations, 45 years after the 1979 US Embassy takeover and the 444-day hostage crisis that followed. Before the revolution, the rial traded at 70 for $1.



Gold Edges Down as Markets Eye Fed's 2025 Monetary Policy Outlook

Gold bars from the vault of a bank are seen in this illustration picture taken in Zurich November 20, 2014. REUTERS/Arnd Wiegmann/File Photo
Gold bars from the vault of a bank are seen in this illustration picture taken in Zurich November 20, 2014. REUTERS/Arnd Wiegmann/File Photo
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Gold Edges Down as Markets Eye Fed's 2025 Monetary Policy Outlook

Gold bars from the vault of a bank are seen in this illustration picture taken in Zurich November 20, 2014. REUTERS/Arnd Wiegmann/File Photo
Gold bars from the vault of a bank are seen in this illustration picture taken in Zurich November 20, 2014. REUTERS/Arnd Wiegmann/File Photo

Gold prices edged lower as the dollar held firm on Wednesday, with investors awaiting a key US Federal Reserve decision expected to shape market sentiment and gold's trajectory by outlining the central bank's 2025 outlook.

Spot gold slipped 0.3% to $2,637.13 per ounce by 10:00 a.m. EST (1500 GMT). US gold futures were down 0.3% at $2,653.20.

The Fed's 2025 economic projections and decision are due at 2 p.m. EST (1900 GMT), followed by Fed chair Jerome Powell's press conference at 2:30 p.m. EST, Reuters reported.

"What markets will truly focus on is the tone set by Jerome Powell. A hawkish stance could drive Treasury yields higher and bolster the dollar, putting downward pressure on gold prices," said Ricardo Evangelista, senior analyst at ActivTrades.

"Conversely, a more cautious tone might provide some support for bullion."

While markets are pricing in a 99% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut during this meeting, the chances of another reduction in January stand at only 17%.

Non-yielding gold tends to do well in a low-interest-rate environment.

Traders are also watching out for key US GDP and inflation data due later this week that could further shape expectations around monetary policy.

"I do see the consolidation as a continuation pattern within the longer term uptrend in gold. I think that trend will re-exert itself in the first quarter of 2025," said Peter Grant, vice president and senior metals strategist at Zaner Metals.

Grant highlighted that bullion remains underpinned by easing central bank policies, geopolitical tensions, sustained buying by central banks, and rising global political instability.

UBS echoed this sentiment in a note, predicting gold would "build on its gains in 2025." The bank emphasized that central banks are likely to continue accumulating gold as they diversify reserves, while heightened demand for hedges could drive inflows into gold-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

Spot silver fell 1.1% at $30.19 per ounce, platinum slipped 1.3% to $926.90, while palladium declined 1.3% to $922.19.