EUROPE GAS-Prices Continue to Decline

Model of natural gas pipeline and Gazprom logo, July 18, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo
Model of natural gas pipeline and Gazprom logo, July 18, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo
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EUROPE GAS-Prices Continue to Decline

Model of natural gas pipeline and Gazprom logo, July 18, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo
Model of natural gas pipeline and Gazprom logo, July 18, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo

Dutch and British wholesale gas prices continued to declined on Tuesday morning on milder weather forecasts for next week, high wind speeds and stable supply.

The benchmark front-month contract at the Dutch TTF hub was down 0.61 euros at 46.65 euros per megawatt hour (MWh) at 0947 GMT, according to LSEG data.

The contract for March was down 0.52 euro at 46.63 euros/MWh.

In Britain, the front-month contract fell by 2.04 pence to 116.76 pence per therm.

In north-west Europe, although another cold snap is forecast from Friday over the weekend, the latest forecasts are showing milder temperatures than yesterday from Jan. 15, according to LSEG data, Reuters reported.

Wind speeds are expected to remain quite strong today, limiting gas demand.

However, in north-west Europe, gas-for-power demand is expected 36 million cubic metres (mcm) per day higher at 78 mcm/day on the day-ahead.

"Wind speeds are expected still high today, before dropping sharply tomorrow with the cold spell arriving," said LSEG gas analyst Saku Jussila.

In Britain, Peak wind generation is forecast at around 15.1 gigawatts (GW) today and 14.7 GW tomorrow, Elexon data showed.

Analysts at Engie EnergyScan said EU net storage withdrawals have slowed due to a more comfortable spot balance but the storage gap compared to last year remains high. On 5 January, EU gas stocks were 69.94% full on average, compared to 84.96% last year.

Looking further ahead, analysts at Jefferies expect a tight year for global gas markets due to project delays and higher-than-expected demand.

"European and Asian LNG spot gas prices in 2025 could surpass those of 2024, driven by Europe's increased gas injection needs and the loss of Russian exports outpacing the expected growth in global LNG supply," they said.

"Post 2025, the market is expected to loosen with an additional 175 million tonnes of new supply coming online between 2026 and 2030, primarily from the US and Qatar," they added.

In the European carbon market, the benchmark contract was down 0.91 euro at 73.45 euros a metric ton.



Oil Trims Gains on Dollar Strength, Tight Supplies Provide Support

FILE PHOTO: An oil pump jack is seen at sunset near Midland, Texas, US, May 3, 2017. REUTERS/Ernest Scheyder/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: An oil pump jack is seen at sunset near Midland, Texas, US, May 3, 2017. REUTERS/Ernest Scheyder/File Photo
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Oil Trims Gains on Dollar Strength, Tight Supplies Provide Support

FILE PHOTO: An oil pump jack is seen at sunset near Midland, Texas, US, May 3, 2017. REUTERS/Ernest Scheyder/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: An oil pump jack is seen at sunset near Midland, Texas, US, May 3, 2017. REUTERS/Ernest Scheyder/File Photo

Oil prices trimmed earlier gains on Wednesday as the dollar strengthened but continued to find support from a tightening of supplies from Russia and other OPEC members and a drop in US crude stocks.

Brent crude was up 21 cents, or 0.27%, at $77.26 a barrel at 1424 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate crude climbed 27 cents, or 0.36%, to $74.52.

Both benchmarks had risen more than 1% earlier in the session, but pared gains on a strengthening US dollar.

"Crude oil took a minor tumble in response to a strengthening dollar following news reports that Trump is considering declaring a national economic emergency to provide legal ground for universal tariffs," added Ole Hansen, analyst at Saxo Bank.

A stronger dollar makes oil more expensive for holders of other currencies.

"The drop (in oil prices) seems to be driven by a general shift in risk sentiment with European equity markets falling and the USD getting stronger," said UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo.

Oil output from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries fell in December after two months of increases, a Reuters survey showed.

In Russia, oil output averaged 8.971 million barrels a day in December, below the country's target, Bloomberg reported citing the energy ministry.

US crude oil stocks fell last week while fuel inventories rose, market sources said, citing American Petroleum Institute figures on Tuesday.

Despite the unexpected draw in crude stocks, the significant rise in product inventories was putting those prices under pressure, PVM analyst Tamas Varga said.

Analysts expect oil prices to be on average down this year from 2024 due in part to production increases from non-OPEC countries.

"We are holding to our forecast for Brent crude to average $76/bbl in 2025, down from an average of $80/bbl in 2024," BMI, a division of Fitch Group, said in a client note.