OPEC Sticks to Global Oil Demand Forecasts, Reports Output Jump

FILE PHOTO: OPEC logo is seen in this illustration taken, October 8, 2023. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: OPEC logo is seen in this illustration taken, October 8, 2023. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo
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OPEC Sticks to Global Oil Demand Forecasts, Reports Output Jump

FILE PHOTO: OPEC logo is seen in this illustration taken, October 8, 2023. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: OPEC logo is seen in this illustration taken, October 8, 2023. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo

OPEC on Wednesday kept its forecast for relatively strong growth in global oil demand in 2025, saying air and road travel would support consumption, and reported that Kazahkstan led a jump in February OPEC+ output despite an ongoing production pact.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, in a monthly report, said world oil demand will rise by 1.45 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2025 and by 1.43 million bpd in 2026. Both forecasts were unchanged from last month.

"Trade concerns are expected to contribute to volatility as trade policies continue to be unveiled. However, the global economy is expected to adjust," OPEC said in the report.

OPEC also published figures showing a 363,000 bpd increase in production by the wider OPEC+ group in February, led by a jump in Kazakhstan which is lagging in its adherence to OPEC+ output quotas.

According to the OPEC data, Kazakhstan produced 1.767 million barrels per day (bpd) of oil in February, up from 1.570 million bpd in January.
It has promised to cut the output and compensate for overproduction.
However, it is boosting oil production at the Chevron-led Tengiz oilfield, the country's largest.
Russia's crude oil output edged down by 0.04% to 8.973 million barrels per day (bpd) in February from 8.977 million bpd January, according to OPEC.
It was slightly below Russia's output quota of 8.98 million bpd under a pact among OPEC+ producers.
Russia's quota is expected to rise to 9.004 mln bpd from April with OPEC+' overall gradual increase of output.

Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said last week that the OPEC+ group agreed to start increasing oil production from April, but could reverse the decision afterward if there are market imbalances.



Dollar Hovers as Investors Focus on Israel-Iran Conflict ahead of Fed Decision

US dollar banknotes are seen in this photo illustration taken February 12, 2018. REUTERS/Jose Luis Gonzalez/Illustration/File Photo
US dollar banknotes are seen in this photo illustration taken February 12, 2018. REUTERS/Jose Luis Gonzalez/Illustration/File Photo
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Dollar Hovers as Investors Focus on Israel-Iran Conflict ahead of Fed Decision

US dollar banknotes are seen in this photo illustration taken February 12, 2018. REUTERS/Jose Luis Gonzalez/Illustration/File Photo
US dollar banknotes are seen in this photo illustration taken February 12, 2018. REUTERS/Jose Luis Gonzalez/Illustration/File Photo

The US dollar dipped against the yen and steadied against the Swiss franc on Wednesday, as fighting between Israel and Iran prompted investors to scoop up safe havens, while a Federal Reserve decision later on rates kept volatility subdued.

Israel has bombarded arch-enemy Iran over the past six days to halt its nuclear activity and has asserted the need for a change of government in the Islamic Republic.

The US military is also bolstering its presence in the region, Reuters reported, stirring speculation about US intervention that investors fear could widen the conflict in an area with critical energy resources, supply chains and infrastructure.

Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei said in a statement read by a state television presenter on Wednesday that his country would not accept US President Donald Trump's call for an unconditional surrender.

The dollar has resumed its role as a safe haven, having gained around 1% against both the Japanese yen and Swiss franc since last Thursday. On Wednesday, theurrency took a breather, edging fractionally lower against the yen and the franc and more noticeably so against the euro and the pound.

"The dollar is still a safe haven because of its depth and liquidity, so, yes, the structural forces are diluting the dollar safe-haven activities, but they're not eroding them completely," said currency strategist Rodrigo Catril at National Australia Bank.

"But in a scenario of big risk aversion, the dollar will still gain support, but maybe not to the same extent it has managed in the past."

Against a basket of six other major currencies, the dollar is still down around 8% so far this year, as confidence in the US economy and the reliability of Trump's administration as a trading and diplomatic partner has faded.

With the Fed's decision on interest rates just hours away and US markets closed on Thursday for the Juneteenth federal holiday, activity in currencies was muted.

Against the yen, the dollar fell 0.3% to 144.845 and was steady against the franc at 0.8175 francs.