Oil Retreats as US and China Growth Concerns Weigh

A view shows the crude oil terminal Kozmino on the shore of Nakhodka Bay near the port city of Nakhodka, Russia August 12, 2022. REUTERS/Tatiana Meel/File Photo
A view shows the crude oil terminal Kozmino on the shore of Nakhodka Bay near the port city of Nakhodka, Russia August 12, 2022. REUTERS/Tatiana Meel/File Photo
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Oil Retreats as US and China Growth Concerns Weigh

A view shows the crude oil terminal Kozmino on the shore of Nakhodka Bay near the port city of Nakhodka, Russia August 12, 2022. REUTERS/Tatiana Meel/File Photo
A view shows the crude oil terminal Kozmino on the shore of Nakhodka Bay near the port city of Nakhodka, Russia August 12, 2022. REUTERS/Tatiana Meel/File Photo

Oil slipped on Monday, weighed down by Moody's downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating and official data that showed slowing growth in China's industrial output and retail sales.

Both developments raised concerns over the outlook for the world's two biggest economies and oil consumers a week after Beijing and Washington's agreement to roll back most tariffs on each other's goods pushed oil prices higher.

"The weaker than expected Chinese data is not helping crude oil, although I would describe the setback as modest," said UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo, Reuters reported.

Brent crude futures lost 57 cents, or 0.9%, to $64.84 a barrel by 1146 GMT while US West Texas Intermediate crude slipped by 54 cents, or 0.9%, to $61.95. The nearby June WTI contract expires on Tuesday.

Both contracts rose more than 1% last week.

Also weighing on the market were comments from US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent that President Donald Trump will impose tariffs at the rate he threatened last month on trading partners that do not negotiate in "good faith".

"Today's weakness is simply a continuation of crude's wild ride going nowhere, with the latest move triggered by the Moody's downgrade and not least Scott Bessent's warning," said Ole Hansen of Saxo Bank.

The official Chinese data on Monday showed growth in industrial output slowed in April, though performance was still better than economists had expected.

Investors are keeping an eye on progress in the Iran-US nuclear talks, with uncertainty over the outcome limiting losses in oil prices.

US special envoy Steve Witkoff said on Sunday that any deal must include an agreement not to enrich uranium, a comment that swiftly drew criticism from Tehran.

"The US-Iran nuclear negotiations are not clear cut and may take many months," said John Evans of oil broker PVM.



Oil Slips as Iran-Israel Conflict Enters Sixth Day

FILE PHOTO: A view shows an oil pump jack outside Almetyevsk in the Republic of Tatarstan, Russia, June 4, 2023. REUTERS/Alexander Manzyuk/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: A view shows an oil pump jack outside Almetyevsk in the Republic of Tatarstan, Russia, June 4, 2023. REUTERS/Alexander Manzyuk/File Photo
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Oil Slips as Iran-Israel Conflict Enters Sixth Day

FILE PHOTO: A view shows an oil pump jack outside Almetyevsk in the Republic of Tatarstan, Russia, June 4, 2023. REUTERS/Alexander Manzyuk/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: A view shows an oil pump jack outside Almetyevsk in the Republic of Tatarstan, Russia, June 4, 2023. REUTERS/Alexander Manzyuk/File Photo

Oil prices fell on Wednesday, after a gain of 4% in the previous session, as markets weighed up the chance of supply disruptions from the Iran-Israel conflict and as they ponder a direct US involvement.

Brent crude futures fell 93 cents, or 1.2%, to $75.52 a barrel by 0918 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell 88 cents, also 1.2%, to $73.96 per barrel.

US President Trump warned on social media on Tuesday that US patience was wearing thin, and called for an "unconditional surrender" from Iran.

While he said there was no intention to kill Iran's leader Ali Khamenei "for now," his comments suggested a tougher stance toward Iran as he weighs whether to deepen US involvement.

A source familiar with internal discussions said one of the options Trump and his team are considering included joining Israel on strikes against Iranian nuclear sites.

A direct US involvement threatens to widen the confrontation further, putting energy infrastructure in the region at higher risk of attack, analysts say.

"The biggest fear for the oil market is the shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz," ING analysts said in a note.

"Almost a third of global seaborne oil trade moves through this chokepoint. A significant disruption to these flows would be enough to push prices to $120 [a barrel]," the bank added.

Iran is OPEC's third-largest producer, extracting about 3.3 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil.

Meanwhile, Iranian ambassador to the United Nations in Geneva Ali Bahreini said on Wednesday that Tehran has conveyed to Washington that it will respond firmly to the United States if it becomes directly involved in Israel's military campaign.

Markets are also looking ahead to a second day of US Federal Reserve discussions on Wednesday, in which the central bank is expected to leave its benchmark overnight interest rate in the range of 4.25% to 4.50%.

However, the conflict in the Middle East and the risk of slowing global growth could potentially push the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points in July, sooner than the market's current expectation of September, said Tony Sycamore, market analyst with IG.

Lower interest rates generally boost economic growth and demand for oil.

Confounding the decision for the Fed, however, is the Middle East conflict's potential creation of a new source of inflation via surging oil prices.

US crude stocks fell by 10.1 million barrels in the week ended June 13, market sources told Reuters, citing American Petroleum Institute figures on Tuesday. Official Energy Information Administration data is due later on Wednesday.