Trump, EU Chief to Meet Sunday in Push for Trade Deal

 President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen speaks during a joint press conference with President of European Council Antonio Costa after the 25th EU-China summit in Beijing on July 24, 2025. (AFP)
President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen speaks during a joint press conference with President of European Council Antonio Costa after the 25th EU-China summit in Beijing on July 24, 2025. (AFP)
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Trump, EU Chief to Meet Sunday in Push for Trade Deal

 President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen speaks during a joint press conference with President of European Council Antonio Costa after the 25th EU-China summit in Beijing on July 24, 2025. (AFP)
President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen speaks during a joint press conference with President of European Council Antonio Costa after the 25th EU-China summit in Beijing on July 24, 2025. (AFP)

EU chief Ursula von der Leyen and US President Donald Trump said Friday they would meet in Scotland this weekend in a decisive push to resolve a months-long transatlantic trade standoff.

In a drive to slash his country's trade deficits, Trump has vowed to hit dozens of countries with punitive tariff hikes if they do not hammer out a pact with Washington by August 1.

The EU -- which is facing an across-the-board levy of 30-percent -- has been pushing hard for a deal with Trump's administration, while also planning retaliation should talks fall short.

Von der Leyen first announced the meeting, writing on X: "Following a good call with POTUS, we have agreed to meet in Scotland on Sunday to discuss transatlantic trade relations, and how we can keep them strong."

Arriving on UK soil late Friday, Trump confirmed he would meet the head of the European Commission, which has been negotiating with Washington on behalf of the 27-nation bloc.

"I'll be meeting with the EU on Sunday, and we'll be working on a deal," he told reporters as he touched down at Prestwick Airport near Glasgow.

"Ursula will be here -- a highly respected woman. So we look forward to that," Trump said.

"We'll see if we make a deal," added the president -- who reiterated earlier comments saying the chance of a deal was "50-50", with sticking points remaining on "maybe 20 different things."

"But we're meeting ... with the European Union. And that would be, actually, the biggest deal of them all, if we make it," he said.

The high-level meeting follows months of negotiations between top EU and US trade officials, and days of signals suggesting the sides were moving towards an agreement.

According to multiple European diplomats, the agreement under consideration would involve a baseline 15-percent US levy on EU goods -- the same level secured by Japan this week -- and potential carve-outs for critical sectors.

Von der Leyen's spokesperson Paula Pinho said "intensive negotiations" had been taking place at technical and political level in the run up to Sunday's meeting.

"Leaders will now take stock and consider the scope for a balanced outcome that provides stability and predictability for businesses and consumers on both sides of the Atlantic," she said.

Hit by multiple waves of tariffs since Trump reclaimed the White House, the EU is currently subject to a 25-percent levy on cars, 50 percent on steel and aluminium, and an across-the-board tariff of 10 percent, which Washington threatens to hike to 30 percent in a no-deal scenario.

The EU wants to avoid sweeping tariffs inflicting further harm on the European economy -- already suffering from sluggish growth -- and damaging a trading relationship worth an annual 1.6 trillion euros ($1.9 trillion) in goods and services.

EU member states gave the European Commission a mandate to pursue a deal to avoid hefty US tariffs, with retaliation held out as a last resort if talks fail.

Seeking to keep up the pressure in the final stretch of talks, EU states on Thursday backed a package of retaliation on $109 billion (93 billion euros) of US goods including aircraft and cars -- to kick in in stages from August 7 if there is no deal.

Most states prefer a deal to no deal -- even with undesirable levies of 15 percent -- but exemptions are key, with aircraft, steel, lumber, pharmaceutical products and agricultural goods under discussion, diplomats said.

Concerning steel, diplomats say a compromise could allow a certain quota to enter the United States, with amounts beyond that taxed at 50 percent.

Since launching its tariffs campaign, Trump's administration has so far unveiled just five agreements, including with Britain, Japan and the Philippines.

While EU hopes have been rising for a deal, the approaching August 1 deadline also comes with a sense of deja-vu: earlier this month, EU officials also believed they were on the cusp of a deal, before Trump hiked his tariff threat to 30-percent.

"The final decision is in the hands of President Trump," an EU diplomat stressed this week.



OPEC+ Decides on Fourth Oil Quota Hike Since Hormuz Closure

Vessels are anchored in the Strait of Hormuz as seen from Musandam, Oman, June 3, 2026. (Reuters)
Vessels are anchored in the Strait of Hormuz as seen from Musandam, Oman, June 3, 2026. (Reuters)
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OPEC+ Decides on Fourth Oil Quota Hike Since Hormuz Closure

Vessels are anchored in the Strait of Hormuz as seen from Musandam, Oman, June 3, 2026. (Reuters)
Vessels are anchored in the Strait of Hormuz as seen from Musandam, Oman, June 3, 2026. (Reuters)

OPEC+ agreed on Sunday a fourth increase in its oil output targets in as many months, even though the US war with Iran is still preventing several of the group's members from pumping more.

The war has cut oil flows via the Strait of Hormuz, creating the world's biggest-ever supply crisis as key OPEC+ members including Saudi Arabia have been unable to supply customers in full since the end of February.

Seven core members of OPEC+, which ‌groups ⁠OPEC and allied producers ⁠including Russia, have increased their output quotas from April to June by almost 600,000 barrels per day.

In reality, the group's production has collapsed due to export cuts by Gulf members, averaging 33.19 million bpd in April compared with 42.77 million in February, according to OPEC figures.

On Sunday, the seven members decided to increase targets by 188,000 bpd from July, OPEC said in a statement.

This is the same as the June hike, which was adjusted down from monthly increases ⁠of 206,000 bpd in May and April to take into ‌account the United Arab Emirates’ exit. The UAE left OPEC after almost 60 years.

On Friday, oil prices fell to around $93 a barrel as traders gained confidence that renewed conflict between the US and Iran was growing less likely. Prices were close to $72 before the war began.

The seven countries are ‌increasing production as part of the gradual unwinding of a 1.65 million bpd production cut that the group, which at the time ⁠included UAE, agreed ⁠in 2023.

The seven of 21 OPEC+ members who met on Sunday are Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan, Russia, and Oman. In recent years, only the seven plus the UAE when it was a member have been involved in the group's output policy decisions.


China’s Central Bank Extends Gold Buying Spree for 19th Month in May

Gold items are displayed at a jewellery shop in downtown Kuwait City on June 6, 2026. (AFP)
Gold items are displayed at a jewellery shop in downtown Kuwait City on June 6, 2026. (AFP)
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China’s Central Bank Extends Gold Buying Spree for 19th Month in May

Gold items are displayed at a jewellery shop in downtown Kuwait City on June 6, 2026. (AFP)
Gold items are displayed at a jewellery shop in downtown Kuwait City on June 6, 2026. (AFP)

China's central bank increased up its gold reserves for a 19th month in May, data from the People's Bank of China showed on Sunday.

The country's gold reserves rose to 74.96 million ‌fine troy ‌ounces by the ‌end ⁠of May, versus the ⁠previous month's 74.64 million ounces

China's gold reserves were valued at $340.75 billion by the end of last month, down ⁠from $344.17 billion the ‌month prior, ‌according to the PBOC data.

Spot gold prices logged ‌a third straight month of decline in May as peace talks between the United ‌States and Iran failing to yield results.

Inflation ⁠risks ⁠following rising oil prices kept the "higher-for-longer" interest rate theme alive, with the dollar remaining elevated.

Gold continued to decline in June and was most recently traded at near $4,330 an ounce.


What is Expected from Today's OPEC+ Major Producers Meeting?

A view shows the logo of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) outside its headquarters in Vienna, Austria, May 28, 2024. REUTERS/Leonhard Foeger/File Phot
A view shows the logo of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) outside its headquarters in Vienna, Austria, May 28, 2024. REUTERS/Leonhard Foeger/File Phot
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What is Expected from Today's OPEC+ Major Producers Meeting?

A view shows the logo of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) outside its headquarters in Vienna, Austria, May 28, 2024. REUTERS/Leonhard Foeger/File Phot
A view shows the logo of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) outside its headquarters in Vienna, Austria, May 28, 2024. REUTERS/Leonhard Foeger/File Phot

All eyes turn Sunday to a series of intensive and simultaneous ministerial meetings of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the OPEC+ alliance. These meetings are taking place under exceptional circumstances in global energy markets, as producers strive through these multiple platforms to lay out the foundations for a new phase of balance and strategic certainty.

Three consecutive meetings will be held today, reflecting the precise institutional nature of managing this phase. It begins with the OPEC Administrative Conference, followed by the 66th meeting of the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC), responsible for monitoring compliance levels, ensuring alignment, and approving current compensation plans, culminating in the 41st ministerial meeting of the broader OPEC+ alliance—a meeting the global investment community is eagerly anticipating.

This coordinated effort is driven by positive momentum and close coordination, epitomized by the important meeting that brought together Saudi Energy Minister, Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, with Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak on the sidelines of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum a few days ago.

The meeting reflected great optimism about the alliance's ability to lead the market with a flexible vision, with discussions focusing on the following positive points:

* Securing Energy Supplies: The Saudi affirmation that the world today needs "every molecule of energy" possible, reflecting the Kingdom's and the alliance's commitment to their role as a safety valve for the global economy.

* Flexibility and Readiness: OPEC+'s high ability to adapt and confront emergent geopolitical and logistical changes, while precisely revising future demand forecasts to ensure investment sustainability.

* Preparing for the Future: Coordination between the two poles aims to prepare a solid ground for the smooth and gradual return of supply flows once temporary logistical factors in the region subside.

Expectations and Targets

Instead of focusing on transient fluctuations, observers expect today's meeting to affirm collective commitment and reaffirm full solidarity among the seven major alliance countries – Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman – to ensure long-term market stability through the approval of flexible production policies. Sources told Reuters that production targets are expected to increase by approximately 188,000 barrels per day for next July, reflecting a cautious and measured approach that allows for quick and gradual intervention options based on daily market data.

Fitch

This flexible move aligns with the in-depth analysis presented by Fitch Ratings in its latest reports. The agency affirmed that the current closure of the Strait of Hormuz represents "a temporary and transient logistical shock" and in no way indicates a structural or permanent shift in global oil market trends.

The agency maintained its strategic view that global supplies will collectively exceed demand throughout 2026, based on the absence of any severe damage to oil infrastructure in the region, and the exceptional ability to achieve a rapid and intensive recovery of production in the Middle East once the strait is expected to reopen by the end of next July – assuming an actual closure period of approximately five months.

According to Fitch's base scenario, the average Brent crude price will hover around $87 per barrel throughout 2026, noting that the absence of production capacity due to the temporary logistical disruption will reduce supplies by approximately 2.9 million barrels per day compared to 2025.

However, the agency anticipates a sharp market rebound towards a surplus starting in September, with the surplus (oil glut) reaching approximately 4 million barrels per day in the last quarter of 2026, supported by strong growth from non-OPEC producers. This will exert downward pressure on prices, restoring the market to its natural equilibrium.

Fitch concludes that this dynamic lends significant effectiveness to OPEC+ plans, as the alliance possesses the ability to exceed previous quotas and pump additional quantities to ensure demand is met and prevent any structural shortages, solidifying the alliance's role as a strategic institution that transforms geopolitical challenges into real opportunities to support energy security, global economic growth, and sustainability.