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Oil Falls for a Second Day as Oversupply Concerns Dominate 

A view shows an oil pump jack outside Almetyevsk, in the Republic of Tatarstan, Russia July 14, 2025. REUTERS/Stringer
A view shows an oil pump jack outside Almetyevsk, in the Republic of Tatarstan, Russia July 14, 2025. REUTERS/Stringer
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Oil Falls for a Second Day as Oversupply Concerns Dominate 

A view shows an oil pump jack outside Almetyevsk, in the Republic of Tatarstan, Russia July 14, 2025. REUTERS/Stringer
A view shows an oil pump jack outside Almetyevsk, in the Republic of Tatarstan, Russia July 14, 2025. REUTERS/Stringer

Oil prices fell for a second day on Tuesday as concerns about excess supply and risks to demand stemming from tensions between the US and China, the world's top two oil consumers, weigh on the market.

Brent crude futures fell 17 cents, or 0.28%, at $60.84 a barrel at 0343 GMT. The US West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) contract for November delivery, set to expire on Tuesday, eased 0.52% to $57.22. The more active December contract was down 19 cents, or 0.33%, at $56.83.

Prices declined to their lowest since early May in Monday's session on the concerns about slowing economic growth from the recent escalations in the US-China trade dispute.

Both WTI and Brent have shifted to contango market structures, where prices for immediate supply are lower than for later delivery and which typically indicates that near-term supply is abundant and demand weakening.

Prices have slumped as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies including Russia, known as OPEC+, have pushed ahead with plans to add more oil to the market. This has led analysts to predict a surplus of crude this year and next, with the International Energy Agency last week projecting a global surplus of nearly 4 million barrels per day in 2026.

"The continued weakening of Brent's monthly spread structure indicates that the pressure from oversupply in the crude oil market is gradually materializing," analysts from China's Haitong Securities said in a note on Tuesday. "This will dampen market expectations and curb investors' willingness to chase gains, limiting the potential for oil prices to rebound."

The current pessimistic outlook for oil is likely to extend into 2026, with analysts at Goldman Sachs saying on Tuesday they forecast Brent prices may drop to $52 a barrel by the fourth quarter of next year.

The Goldman analysts attributed the past week's slump in Brent prices to indications "the long-anticipated global surplus has started to show" in satellite data on global oil stockpiles and inventory data from the IEA and the Energy Information Administration in the US.

Expectations are that US crude oil stockpiles likely rose last week, a preliminary Reuters poll on Monday showed, ahead of weekly reports from the American Petroleum Institute and the EIA.

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IMF Says it Has Made Progress in Pakistan Funding Talks

Students ride on motorbikes with their parents while heading to schools, after the government announced that schools would close for two weeks, starting March 16, following austerity measures to save fuel amid the US-Israeli conflict with Iran, in Karachi, Pakistan, March 10, 2026. REUTERS/Akhtar Soomro
Students ride on motorbikes with their parents while heading to schools, after the government announced that schools would close for two weeks, starting March 16, following austerity measures to save fuel amid the US-Israeli conflict with Iran, in Karachi, Pakistan, March 10, 2026. REUTERS/Akhtar Soomro
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IMF Says it Has Made Progress in Pakistan Funding Talks

Students ride on motorbikes with their parents while heading to schools, after the government announced that schools would close for two weeks, starting March 16, following austerity measures to save fuel amid the US-Israeli conflict with Iran, in Karachi, Pakistan, March 10, 2026. REUTERS/Akhtar Soomro
Students ride on motorbikes with their parents while heading to schools, after the government announced that schools would close for two weeks, starting March 16, following austerity measures to save fuel amid the US-Israeli conflict with Iran, in Karachi, Pakistan, March 10, 2026. REUTERS/Akhtar Soomro

The International Monetary Fund said on Wednesday it has made "considerable progress" in talks with Pakistan ⁠over its funding ⁠facilities and that discussions will continue.

"While considerable progress was made ⁠in the discussions, these will continue in the coming days, including to more fully assess the impact of recent global developments on Pakistan’s economy ⁠and ⁠the EFF-supported (Extended Fund Facility) program," IMF advisor Iva Petrova said in the statement.

Pakistan is in an ongoing $7 billion IMF program.

Tanker drivers in Pakistan said they were facing long waits at depots due to a shortage of fuel, as the government played down fears of another rise in prices.

The US-Israeli war with Iran has disrupted shipping and damaged oil and gas facilities in the Middle East, raising global oil prices as countries scramble to deal with concerns over supply.

Dozens of tankers, which supply fuel across Pakistan, were seen parked at the side of the road on Tuesday at depots near Lahore, the capital of Punjab, the country's most populous province.

Last week, the government in Islamabad hiked prices by about 20 percent, triggering long lines and panic buying at filling stations across the country.

Business

Shell Declares Force Majeure to Clients who Buy Qatari LNG

The shell logo on a petrol station forecourt in London, Britain, 02 March 2026. EPA/NEIL HALL
The shell logo on a petrol station forecourt in London, Britain, 02 March 2026. EPA/NEIL HALL
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Shell Declares Force Majeure to Clients who Buy Qatari LNG

The shell logo on a petrol station forecourt in London, Britain, 02 March 2026. EPA/NEIL HALL
The shell logo on a petrol station forecourt in London, Britain, 02 March 2026. EPA/NEIL HALL

Shell, the world's largest liquefied natural gas trader, has declared force majeure on LNG cargoes it buys from QatarEnergy and sells to its clients worldwide, three sources told Reuters on Wednesday.

Qatar, the world's second-largest exporter of LNG, announced a production halt at its 77 million tons per annum (mtpa) facility last week and declared force majeure ⁠on LNG shipments.

Shell ⁠declined to comment.

Other Qatari LNG buyers, including TotalEnergies and some Asian companies, have received force majeure notices from Qatar and told customers they would not be selling them Qatari LNG as long as the facilities remain shut, two other sources ⁠said.

A person familiar with the matter said TotalEnergies has not declared force majeure, a notice used to describe events outside a company's control, such as a natural disaster, which usually releases it from contractual obligation without penalty.

Both Shell and TotalEnergies have long-term partnerships with QatarEnergy and are partners in the company's massive North Field expansion project which aims to boost capacity by 2027.

Analysts estimate Shell takes 6.8 mtpa of ⁠Qatari ⁠LNG, while TotalEnergies takes 5.2 mtpa.

Business

IEA Agrees to Record Release of Emergency Oil Reserves in an Effort to Calm Surging Prices

FILE PHOTO: A pump jack operates outside of Midland, Texas, US June 11, 2025. REUTERS/Eli Hartman/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: A pump jack operates outside of Midland, Texas, US June 11, 2025. REUTERS/Eli Hartman/File Photo
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IEA Agrees to Record Release of Emergency Oil Reserves in an Effort to Calm Surging Prices

FILE PHOTO: A pump jack operates outside of Midland, Texas, US June 11, 2025. REUTERS/Eli Hartman/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: A pump jack operates outside of Midland, Texas, US June 11, 2025. REUTERS/Eli Hartman/File Photo

The International Energy Agency agreed Wednesday to release the largest volume of emergency oil reserves in its history, in a bid to counter the effects on energy markets of the war in the Middle East.

The Paris-based organization said it will make 400 million barrels of oil available from its members’ emergency reserves. It’s a larger stock than the 182.7 million barrels that were released in 2022 by the IEA's 32 member countries in response to Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

“Without sufficient routes to market and with no more available storage, Middle East oil producers have started to reduce production," IEA executive director Fatih Birol said. "And we have seen further attacks and damage to energy and energy-related infrastructure. Refinery operations have also been disrupted, with major implications for jet fuel and diesel supplies in particular.”

IEA member countries currently hold over 1.2 billion barrels of public emergency oil stocks, with a further 600 million barrels of industry stocks held under government obligation.

In response to US and Israeli strikes, Iran has attacked commercial ships across the Persian Gulf, escalating a campaign of squeezing the oil-rich region as global energy concerns mount.

Iran has effectively stopped cargo traffic in the narrow Strait of Hormuz through which about a fifth of all oil is shipped from the Persian Gulf toward the Indian Ocean. It has also targeted oil fields and refineries in Gulf Arab nations, aiming at generating enough global economic pain to pressure the United States and Israel to end their strikes.

Germany and Austria said earlier Wednesday they would release parts of their oil reserves following an IEA request for members to release the record 400 million barrels to help temper energy price spikes due to the Iran war. Japan also said it will release some of its reserves starting Monday.

Group of Seven energy ministers met Tuesday at IEA headquarters in Paris to look at ways to bring down prices. Birol said afterward that they discussed all available options, including making IEA emergency oil stocks available to the market.

The IEA reserves were established in 1974 following the Arab oil embargo.

“This is a major action aiming to alleviate the immediate impacts of the disruption in markets,” Birol added. "But, to be clear, the most important thing for a return to stable flows of oil and gas is the resumption of transit through the Strait of Hormuz.”

The G7 is comprised of the leading industrialized nations of Canada, the United States, France, Italy, Japan, Germany and Britain. Austria is not a member. The group's leaders were set to hold a meeting via videoconference later Wednesday to discuss energy issues.

The German economy ministry, Katherina Reiche, said the IEA asked Germany to release 2.64 million tons of its oil reserves. It was not immediately clear how much Austria was releasing.

She said it would take a couple of days before the delivery of the first quantities.

“Germany stands behind the IEA’s most important principle of mutual solidarity," Reiche said.

The G7 energy ministers announced Tuesday that they supported in principle “the implementation of proactive measures to address the situation, including the use of strategic reserves.”

According to the IEA, export volumes of crude and refined products are currently at less than 10% of prewar levels.

Austrian Economy Minister Wolfgang Hattmannsdorfer said his country was releasing part of the emergency oil reserve and extending the national strategic gas reserve, adding: “One thing is clear: in a crisis, there must be no crisis winners at the expense of commuters and businesses.”

The German government also said it will introduce a measure to allow gas stations in Germany to raise fuel prices no more than once a day. The federal government wants to introduce this as quickly as possible, Reiche said.

In Austria, starting Monday, price increases at gas stations will be allowed only three times a week, the country’s economy minister said.