Oil Falls for a Second Day as Oversupply Concerns Dominate 

A view shows an oil pump jack outside Almetyevsk, in the Republic of Tatarstan, Russia July 14, 2025. REUTERS/Stringer
A view shows an oil pump jack outside Almetyevsk, in the Republic of Tatarstan, Russia July 14, 2025. REUTERS/Stringer
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Oil Falls for a Second Day as Oversupply Concerns Dominate 

A view shows an oil pump jack outside Almetyevsk, in the Republic of Tatarstan, Russia July 14, 2025. REUTERS/Stringer
A view shows an oil pump jack outside Almetyevsk, in the Republic of Tatarstan, Russia July 14, 2025. REUTERS/Stringer

Oil prices fell for a second day on Tuesday as concerns about excess supply and risks to demand stemming from tensions between the US and China, the world's top two oil consumers, weigh on the market.

Brent crude futures fell 17 cents, or 0.28%, at $60.84 a barrel at 0343 GMT. The US West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) contract for November delivery, set to expire on Tuesday, eased 0.52% to $57.22. The more active December contract was down 19 cents, or 0.33%, at $56.83.

Prices declined to their lowest since early May in Monday's session on the concerns about slowing economic growth from the recent escalations in the US-China trade dispute.

Both WTI and Brent have shifted to contango market structures, where prices for immediate supply are lower than for later delivery and which typically indicates that near-term supply is abundant and demand weakening.

Prices have slumped as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies including Russia, known as OPEC+, have pushed ahead with plans to add more oil to the market. This has led analysts to predict a surplus of crude this year and next, with the International Energy Agency last week projecting a global surplus of nearly 4 million barrels per day in 2026.

"The continued weakening of Brent's monthly spread structure indicates that the pressure from oversupply in the crude oil market is gradually materializing," analysts from China's Haitong Securities said in a note on Tuesday. "This will dampen market expectations and curb investors' willingness to chase gains, limiting the potential for oil prices to rebound."

The current pessimistic outlook for oil is likely to extend into 2026, with analysts at Goldman Sachs saying on Tuesday they forecast Brent prices may drop to $52 a barrel by the fourth quarter of next year.

The Goldman analysts attributed the past week's slump in Brent prices to indications "the long-anticipated global surplus has started to show" in satellite data on global oil stockpiles and inventory data from the IEA and the Energy Information Administration in the US.

Expectations are that US crude oil stockpiles likely rose last week, a preliminary Reuters poll on Monday showed, ahead of weekly reports from the American Petroleum Institute and the EIA.



China Says Hopes to Boost Trade Cooperation with US

 A street cleaner walks by food delivery riders gather outside restaurants waiting for their online orders, in Beijing, China, Wednesday, March 25, 2026. (AP)
A street cleaner walks by food delivery riders gather outside restaurants waiting for their online orders, in Beijing, China, Wednesday, March 25, 2026. (AP)
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China Says Hopes to Boost Trade Cooperation with US

 A street cleaner walks by food delivery riders gather outside restaurants waiting for their online orders, in Beijing, China, Wednesday, March 25, 2026. (AP)
A street cleaner walks by food delivery riders gather outside restaurants waiting for their online orders, in Beijing, China, Wednesday, March 25, 2026. (AP)

China wishes to strengthen economic cooperation with the United States to avoid "vicious competition", commerce minister Wang Wentao told US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, according to a readout released on Friday.

The two met on Thursday on the sidelines of a World Trade Organization (WTO) ministerial conference in Cameroon's capital, less than two months ahead of US President Donald Trump's planned visit to Beijing.

"China is willing to strengthen multilateral and regional economic and trade cooperation with the United States," Wang told Greer, according to a statement by the Beijing's Ministry of Commerce.

The two powers must "properly handle the relationship between competition and cooperation" and "avoid vicious competition," he said.

The world's two largest economies were locked in a bitter trade battle last year before agreeing to a truce in October.

High-level talks in Paris this month between US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng also helped to ease tensions.

Nevertheless, issues including US tariffs, a trade balance in China's favor, and US restrictions on exports of advanced technologies continue to threaten relations.

Wang expressed "grave concerns" on Thursday regarding recently announced US trade investigations signaling the possibility of fresh tariffs.

Washington's trade investigations target 60 economies, including China, and will look into "failures to take action on forced labor" and whether these burden or restrict US commerce.

The White House has said Trump will visit Beijing on May 14-15, with the timing postponed by several weeks as a result of the war in the Middle East.


Dollar Rides Haven Demand as Middle East Talks Ring Hollow

An electronic panel displays US Dollar currency symbol at an exchange office in Podolsk, outside Moscow, Russia, 26 March 2026. (EPA)
An electronic panel displays US Dollar currency symbol at an exchange office in Podolsk, outside Moscow, Russia, 26 March 2026. (EPA)
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Dollar Rides Haven Demand as Middle East Talks Ring Hollow

An electronic panel displays US Dollar currency symbol at an exchange office in Podolsk, outside Moscow, Russia, 26 March 2026. (EPA)
An electronic panel displays US Dollar currency symbol at an exchange office in Podolsk, outside Moscow, Russia, 26 March 2026. (EPA)

The dollar hovered near multi-month peaks on Friday as investors sought safety in the shadow of an intensifying Middle East war and mounting doubts over any path to de-escalation.

Markets were on edge following another rollercoaster week as US President Donald Trump again extended a deadline for striking Iran's energy facilities into April, even as Washington and Tehran offered starkly conflicting accounts of diplomatic progress.

The Pentagon is also looking at sending up to 10,000 additional ground troops to the Middle East, the Wall Street Journal reported on Thursday, doing little to bolster investor hopes ‌of an imminent ‌end to the war.

That kept the dollar bid ‌as ⁠investors flocked to ⁠the safe-haven currency and ramped up expectations of a US rate hike by the year-end, owing to the inflationary pulse from higher-for-longer energy prices.

The yen, on the other hand, was left on the cusp of 160 per dollar and stood at 159.58. The euro was nursing losses and tacked on 0.1% to $1.1540, while sterling was little changed at $1.3339.

"It doesn't look like the conflict will end anytime soon," said Carol Kong, a ⁠currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia. "The dollar is king while ‌this conflict lasts."

"If we're right about this ‌conflict being protracted, I think oil prices will just keep rising and it will ‌push the dollar higher, at the expense of net energy importers like the Japanese ‌yen and the euro," she added.

The darkening market mood sent the risk-sensitive Australian dollar down to a two-month trough, though it later rebounded and traded 0.2% higher at $0.6903. The New Zealand dollar languished near its lowest level since January and last stood at $0.5769.

Against a basket ‌of currencies, the dollar was marginally weaker at 99.83, but still on track for a 2.2% rise this month, which would ⁠mark its ⁠biggest gain since July last year.

Investors are now pricing in an over 40% chance of a 25-basis-point rate hike from the Federal Reserve by September, according to CME Fedwatch tool, in a sharp reversal from more than 50 bps worth of easing expected before the war.

The Bank of England and the European Central Bank are also seen tightening policy, with the hawkish sea change in rate expectations hammering bonds and sending yields rising.

"A more prolonged disruption to energy supplies would deliver a larger hit to activity that would meet most definitions of a global recession and prompt a broader monetary tightening cycle," said analysts at Capital Economics in a note.

Yields on US Treasuries edged slightly higher on Friday, following a sharp rise overnight, with the two-year yield at 3.9899%. The benchmark 10-year yield was up about 1 bp to 4.4278%.


Oil Drops as Trump Pauses Iran Strikes, but Stock Traders Nervous

Donald trump said he had pushed back the deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz once again following a request from Tehran. IRIB TV/AFP
Donald trump said he had pushed back the deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz once again following a request from Tehran. IRIB TV/AFP
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Oil Drops as Trump Pauses Iran Strikes, but Stock Traders Nervous

Donald trump said he had pushed back the deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz once again following a request from Tehran. IRIB TV/AFP
Donald trump said he had pushed back the deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz once again following a request from Tehran. IRIB TV/AFP

Oil prices fell Friday after Donald Trump again pushed back a deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, though most equities also dropped as traders shrugged at the news following a series of conflicting messaging from the White House.

The US president had warned last Saturday he would obliterate Iran’s energy sites if it did not unblock the crucial waterway within 48 hours but pushed that back five days citing positive peace talks, which Tehran denied had taken place.

But after days of strikes by both sides and mixed reports of negotiations -- including the trading of multi-point demands -- he announced Thursday that he would again delay the attacks to April 6 after a request from Tehran.

"Talks are ongoing and, despite erroneous statements to the contrary by the Fake News Media, and others, they are going very well," Trump posted on his Truth Social platform.

"As per Iranian Government request... I am pausing the period of Energy Plant destruction by 10 Days to Monday, April 6, 2026, at 8 P.M., Eastern Time," he posted.

Trump had earlier denied he was desperate for a deal to end the war, despite the Iranian republic's cool response to an American peace plan and fears the spike in oil prices would fan inflation, said AFP.

Trump later told a cabinet meeting Iran had allowed 10 oil tankers passage through the Strait of Hormuz -- through which about a fifth of world oil and gas pass -- to show it was serious about talks.

The Iranian news agency Tasnim said the country's response to Washington's 15-point plan to end the war "was officially sent last night through intermediaries, and Iran is awaiting the other side's response".

The report, citing an unnamed official, said officials had called for an end to US-Israeli attacks on Iran and Tehran-backed groups elsewhere in the region.

It also called for war reparations and Iran's "sovereignty" over the Strait of Hormuz be respected.

However, Trump's announcement came as the Wall Street Journal cited Department of Defense officials as saying the Pentagon was considering sending as many as 10,000 extra ground troops to the Middle East.

Oil prices fell more than one percent Friday, though that only partially pared the previous day's surge amid growing anxiety that the conflict will last far longer than first thought.

Brent is up almost 50 percent since the war began on February 28, while West Texas Intermediate has risen around 40 percent.

Equities struggled following hefty losses in Wall Street.

Tokyo and Seoul, which had been the standout performers in the first two months of the year, were among the biggest losers, while Hong Kong, Sydney, Wellington, Taipei Jakarta and Manila were also sharply lower.

Shanghai and Singapore fluctuated.

Investors are also increasingly skeptical about the messaging from the White House, with Trump often flipping between threats and talk of peace.

"A ten-day extension sounds like breathing room, but in market terms, it feels more like a trader rolling a losing position forward, hoping the next candle delivers what the last one refused to give," said SPI Asset Management's Stephen Innes referring to an investors analysis tool.

"Time has been purchased, not clarity. And the market knows the difference."

And National Australia Bank's Ray Attrill said: "Whether peace talks are taking place between the US and Iran remains debatable, Iran insisting that exchanges of letters via a friendly intermediary (presumed to be Pakistan) does not constitute talks."

Meanwhile, the World Trade Organization warned the global trading system was experiencing the "worst disruptions in the past 80 years", while the World Bank said it was prepared to provide immediate financial assistance to emerging market countries.

That came as the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development warned US inflation could hit more than four percent this year as a result of the spike in crude prices. That compares with its previous projection of 2.8 percent.

The prospect of another spike in the cost of living led several Federal Reserve officials to express concern about the outlook for the world's top economy and suggested interest rates were unlikely to come down any time soon.

With the economic impact worsening, governments around the world are being forced to act.

Spain approved a sweeping $5.8 billion package including steep cuts to energy taxes, while Poland's prime minister announced a series of measures to address soaring fuel costs, including reduced taxes and price ceilings.

And South Korea said it will roll out a $17 billion "wartime" supplementary budget and expand fuel tax cuts.