Energy Leaders at ADIPEC: Peak in Oil Demand Not Seen Yet  

Delegates are silhouetted against a screen as they attend the inaugural session of ADIPEC in Abu Dhabi on Monday. (AP)
Delegates are silhouetted against a screen as they attend the inaugural session of ADIPEC in Abu Dhabi on Monday. (AP)
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Energy Leaders at ADIPEC: Peak in Oil Demand Not Seen Yet  

Delegates are silhouetted against a screen as they attend the inaugural session of ADIPEC in Abu Dhabi on Monday. (AP)
Delegates are silhouetted against a screen as they attend the inaugural session of ADIPEC in Abu Dhabi on Monday. (AP)

Senior officials in the energy sector agreed Monday during the Abu Dhabi International Petroleum Exhibition and Conference “ADIPEC” that global oil demand has not yet peaked, and that global oil markets are on a positive and stable track.

Leaders attributed this optimism to multiple factors, most notably the balance of supply and demand, the continued growth in global consumption, and the pragmatic policies adopted by major producing countries.

OPEC Secretary-General Haitham Al Ghais said the group was still seeing positive signs for oil demand and did not expect any surprises in the market.

“We are making sure we maintain the supply demand balance,” Ghais added at a panel at ADIPEC, a day after OPEC+ agreed to an additional 137,000 barrels per day (bpd) oil production increase for December and a pause in increases in the first quarter of next year.

Energy security and clean energy

When asked about the possibility of an oil glut in 2026, United Arab Emirates' Energy Minister Suhail al-Mazrouei said: “I am not going to talk about an oversupply scenario. In my view, what we’re seeing right now is growing demand.”

He said the Emirates is cementing its position as a “key player” by pursuing a balanced path while accelerating clean energy.

Al-Mazrouei said UAE is spending AED189 billion ($51.5 billion) on infrastructure and clean energy to reach net-zero by 2050.

It now has 12.4 gigawatts of clean power (over 30% of electricity), three giant single site solar plants, the Barakah Nuclear Power Plant running at full power and the world’s largest solar plus storage project for 24/7 clean electricity, the minister added.

Pragmatic policies

Delivering the keynote address at the opening ceremony of ADIPEC, Dr. Sultan bin Ahmed Al Jaber, Minister of Industry and Advanced Technology and Managing Director and Group CEO of the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC), said the UAE’s pragmatic approach proves how policy grounded in reality builds investor confidence and explained that the country is a model for credible, technology-driven, investment-friendly policy solutions.

“The lesson,” he added, “is that policies should be pragmatic, not performative, based on insight, not ideology, built on first principles, not fleeting popularity. Regulation without realism and legislation without logic, will only weaken economies, stunt societies and drive capital away.”

Noting that $4 trillion annual capital investment is needed in grids, data centers and all sources of energy, Al Jaber said “you can’t run tomorrow’s economy on yesterday’s grid” and went on to highlight the major demand-drivers through 2040.

“Here are the facts: electricity demand will keep surging through 2040, as power for data centers grows four-fold, 1.5 billion people move into cities, and more than 2 billion air conditioners come online. Aviation will also take off, with the global airline fleet doubling from 25,000 to 50,000 planes,” he showed.

Washington: No oil glut in 2026

The US Department of Energy’s deputy secretary, James Danly, said that he does not think there will be an oil glut in 2026.

“We have a demand signal for energy that is going up rapidly,” Danly said at the conference.

Meanwhile, TotalEnergies CEO Patrick Pouyanne said Chinese oil demand growth has slowed since 2020 as the country transitions to greener energy, though he said he was still optimistic long-term due to rising demand in India.

“You have demand growing again steadily, but one thing has changed in the last three or four years: it's the Chinese engine for growth of oil demand, which was really strong between 2000 and 2020,” Pouyanne said. “That engine has slowed down.”



Germany Growth Forecasts Slashed as Mideast War Hits Economy

Germany's economy is struggling with fierce Chinese competition in sectors from cars to chemicals © Ronny HARTMANN / AFP/File
Germany's economy is struggling with fierce Chinese competition in sectors from cars to chemicals © Ronny HARTMANN / AFP/File
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Germany Growth Forecasts Slashed as Mideast War Hits Economy

Germany's economy is struggling with fierce Chinese competition in sectors from cars to chemicals © Ronny HARTMANN / AFP/File
Germany's economy is struggling with fierce Chinese competition in sectors from cars to chemicals © Ronny HARTMANN / AFP/File

Leading economic institutes more than halved their growth forecast for Germany on Wednesday, warning that the energy shock caused by the Middle East war would hit Europe's top economy hard.

A group of leading institutes slashed their joint GDP growth forecast for 2026 to 0.6 percent, down from a September prediction of 1.3 percent.

Inflation is now forecast to rise to 2.8 percent, up from 2.0 percent, "weighing on household purchasing power".

"The energy price shock triggered by the Iran war is hitting the recovery hard," said economist Timo Wollmershaeuser of the Ifo institute, adding that increased government spending was nevertheless "preventing a stronger slide", AFP reported.

Oil and natural gas prices have surged since the end of February, when the United States and Israel attacked Iran, killed its supreme leader and plunged the Middle East into war.

Iran has since closed the Strait of Hormuz to ships of countries it considers allied with the US and Israel, effectively blocking a sea lane that normally transports about a fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas.

Higher inflation in Germany would hit consumer spending, the institutes said, weighing on an already weak economy that has barely grown since a burst of pent-up demand after the Covid pandemic in 2022.

The government on Wednesday introduced rules allowing petrol stations to only raise prices once a day, at noon.

But motorist Sebastian, a 49-year-old estate agent who did not want to give his surname, told AFP at a Frankfurt petrol station that this was not enough to protect his spending power.

"Whether the price of petrol changes once a day or 10 times a day doesn't really matter," he said, adding it was "certainly not enough" to lower his costs.

Germany's economy, struggling with fierce Chinese competition in sectors from cars to chemicals, was in the doldrums even before US President Donald Trump last year imposed sweeping new tariffs before starting the Mideast war in late February.

Chancellor Friedrich Merz, who took office last May, vowed to borrow and spend hundreds of billions through a special infrastructure fund over coming years in what was dubbed a spending "bazooka" aimed at getting the economy back on its feet.

But the economists said that much of the money was simply paying for day-to-day spending.

"Government expenditure on consumption is rising much more sharply than investment," economist Oliver Holtemoeller of the Halle Institute for Economic Research said. "That was not the idea behind changing the financing rules."

The outlook for the longer term was also dire.

Citing low productivity, industrial decline and an ageing population, the institutes warned that Germany's economy would soon be unable to grow sustainably.

"We have also reassessed the structural changes in the German economy and, in particular, revised our forecast for industrial growth downwards," Wollmershaeuser said.

In an era when "demographic change is hitting with full force", he said, "potential growth will come to a standstill by the end of the decade, and we will have to get used to average GDP growth rates of zero percent".

Speaking to broadcaster Welt TV, Economy Minister Katherina Reiche said the government was working on reducing labour taxes and energy costs but that Germans would have to get used to working more over the course of their lives.

"We need to make this country vigorous again," she said. "Germany needs to get its will to win back."


19 Migrants Found Dead by Italian Coastguard off Lampedusa

Hellenic coast guard performs SAR operation, following migrant's boat collision with coast guard off the Aegean island of Chios, near Mersinidi, Greece, February 4, 2026. REUTERS
Hellenic coast guard performs SAR operation, following migrant's boat collision with coast guard off the Aegean island of Chios, near Mersinidi, Greece, February 4, 2026. REUTERS
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19 Migrants Found Dead by Italian Coastguard off Lampedusa

Hellenic coast guard performs SAR operation, following migrant's boat collision with coast guard off the Aegean island of Chios, near Mersinidi, Greece, February 4, 2026. REUTERS
Hellenic coast guard performs SAR operation, following migrant's boat collision with coast guard off the Aegean island of Chios, near Mersinidi, Greece, February 4, 2026. REUTERS

The bodies of 19 migrants were recovered from a boat off the coast of Lampedusa on Wednesday by the Italian coastguard, the island's mayor told AFP.

Mayor Filippo Mannino said seven other migrants, including two children, were being treated for "hypothermia and intoxication from hydrocarbon fumes".

The coastguard rescue was staged some 135 kilometers (85 miles) off the Italian island, according to news agency ANSA.

The coastguard did not respond to AFP requests for information.

The rescue operation occurred in the early hours of Wednesday inside Libya's search-and-rescue zone, ANSA reported.

"All are believed to have died of hypothermia," wrote the agency, which cited strong winds, rain, and temperatures of 10C, in the area.

Lampedusa is a key landing point for migrants crossing the Mediterranean Sea from North Africa, with many dying trying the dangerous journey.

So far this year, 624 migrants have died or gone missing in the central Mediterranean, according to the UN's International Organization for Migration.

Lampedusa's last migrant disaster occurred in August last year, when 27 people died in two shipwrecks off the coast.

According to the interior ministry, 6,117 migrants have landed on Italy's shores so far this year.


Dollar Falls for Second Day as Middle East Ceasefire Expectations Rise

US dollar bills (Reuters)
US dollar bills (Reuters)
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Dollar Falls for Second Day as Middle East Ceasefire Expectations Rise

US dollar bills (Reuters)
US dollar bills (Reuters)

The dollar dropped for a second day on Wednesday as expectations of a ceasefire in the Middle East conflict grew after the US signalled that an end to the war could be near, even though markets remained on edge on fears of escalation.

The White House said US President Donald Trump would address the nation "to provide an important update on Iran" at 9 p.m. EDT on Wednesday (0100 GMT on Thursday).

Trump said on Tuesday the US could end its military campaign against Iran within two to three weeks, while Secretary of State Marco Rubio told Fox News Washington could see the "finish line" in the Iran war, according to Reuters.

Expectations that a ceasefire could be near have reversed some of the most popular trades since the war began in late February.

The yen recovered from this year's low of 160.46 per dollar, moving back through the psychologically important 160 level that had fanned concerns about intervention by Japanese authorities. The euro hit its highest level in a week.

The dollar index, which measures the currency against a basket of currencies including the yen and the euro, was last down 0.3% at 99.456, slipping to a one-week low after a 0.65% fall on Tuesday.

"Markets are increasingly buying into the notion of de-escalation in the Middle East overall," said Kirstine Kundby-Nielsen, FX analyst at Danske Bank.

"Markets are optimistic. We're seeing some relief with rates going lower, equities going higher and the price action in euro-dollar reflects that quite well."

The euro edged up 0.5% versus the dollar to $1.1603, after rising 0.8% on Tuesday.

The Japanese yen was up 0.1% at 158.46 per dollar. Sterling strengthened 0.7% to $1.3313.

At the same time, there were still signs of escalation in the conflict.
US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said the next few days in the war against Iran would be decisive and warned Tehran that the conflict would intensify if it did not make a deal.

The dollar should remain supported by the Fed's cautious stance on rate cuts, while the yen is being underpinned by rising expectations of a Bank of Japan hike in April, said Sho Suzuki, market analyst at Matsui Securities.

"We may see a tug-of-war between dollar strength and yen strength, with USD/JPY trading sideways in the upper 150s," he said.

The Australian dollar strengthened 0.7% to $0.6946. New Zealand's kiwi strengthened 0.4% to $0.5770.