Dutch and British gas prices posted small gains on Thursday morning but are largely expected to trade sideways with rising demand from colder weather easily met by pipeline and liquefied natural gas deliveries.
The benchmark Dutch front-month contract at the TTF hub was up 0.19 euros at 27.57 euros per megawatt hour (MWh), or $9.48/mBtu, by 0907 GMT, LSEG data showed.
The Dutch day-ahead contract was up 0.41 euros at 27.36 euros/MWh.
The British day-ahead gas price was up 0.90 pence at 71.00 pence per therm, while the front-month gas contract was up by 0.62 pence at 72.90 p/therm, Reuters reported.
The weather will be mostly dry but slowly colder with below-normal temperatures towards the end of the next week, LSEG meteorologist Georg Mueller said.
"This pattern seems to be stable and will likely last into early January," he added.
Prices appeared to have exhausted their potential for further decline, but a comfortable LNG balance in particular prevented a real rebound, analysts at Engie EnergyScan said in a daily note.
Key US liquefied natural export plant Freeport LNG was on track to take in more gas on Wednesday in a sign that one of its three liquefaction trains has returned to service after shutting down on Tuesday.
Norwegian pipeline gas nominations to Europe hit 348.8 million cubic metres (mcm) per day on Wednesday, their highest level since August 2024, and are at 347.6 mcm/day on Thursday, data from infrastructure operator Gassco showed.
Latest positioning data indicated that speculators are increasingly bearish on the TTF, with investment funds building their largest net-short position since early 2020, analysts at ING said.
"It continues to pose a risk to the market should we see any supply disruptions or demand surges," they added.
EU gas storage sites were last 68.75% full, compared with 77.5% at the same time last year, Gas Infrastructure Europe data showed.
In the European carbon market, the benchmark contract was down 0.81 euro at 85.99 euros a metric ton.
