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Iran's Partners in Crisis after Trump Announces New Tariffs

The Iranian flag and 3D printed oil barrels miniature are seen in this illustration taken June 23, 2025. (Reuters)
The Iranian flag and 3D printed oil barrels miniature are seen in this illustration taken June 23, 2025. (Reuters)
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Iran's Partners in Crisis after Trump Announces New Tariffs

The Iranian flag and 3D printed oil barrels miniature are seen in this illustration taken June 23, 2025. (Reuters)
The Iranian flag and 3D printed oil barrels miniature are seen in this illustration taken June 23, 2025. (Reuters)

US President Donald Trump on Monday said any country that does business with Iran will face a tariff rate of 25% on any trade with the US as Washington weighs a response to the situation in Iran which is seeing its biggest anti-government protests in years.

Iran, a member of the OPEC oil producing group, exported products to 147 trading partners in 2022, according to World Bank's most recent data.

China and the United Arab Emirates are Iran’s largest trading partners, putting them at the top of the list of countries at risk of being hit by Trump’s 25% tariff threat, according to Bloomberg.

Countries like India, Brazil, Iraq, Türkiye and Russia are also major trade partners of Iran.

Fuel is Iran's biggest export item by value, while major imports include intermediate goods, vegetables, machinery and equipment.

China

China is the primary buyer of Iranian oil, which remains under international sanctions over Tehran's nuclear program.

In 2024, the trade turnover between the two countries amounted to $17.8 billion.

In 2025, China bought more than 80% of Iran's shipped oil, according to data from Kpler, an analytics firm.

Iranian oil has a limited pool of buyers because of US sanctions that seek to cut off funding to Tehran's nuclear program.

Also, Iran has a record amount of oil on the water, ​equivalent to about 50 days of output, with China having bought ‌less because of sanctions and Tehran seeking to protect its supplies from the risk of US strikes, data from Kpler and Vortexa shows.

Iranian oil imported by China is typically labelled by traders as originating from other countries, such as Malaysia, a major transshipment hub, and Indonesia.

Chinese customs data has not shown any oil shipped from Iran since July 2022.

UAE

While China is Iran's premier trade partner, the UAE is the second largest. Trade between Iran and the UAE has reached $16.11 billion, making it a vital center in Iran’s regional trade and putting the Emirates at the top of the list of countries at risk of being targeted by Trump’s tariffs.

Iraq

Iraq, Iran’s historical partner and geographically closest, ranks fourth globally with a trade volume reaching $12.3 billion, representing 9.9% of Iran’s total foreign trade activity.

In recent years, Iraq has relied on Iran to supply about 40% of its needs for gas and electricity, at a time when Iraqi infrastructure lacks the capacity to process natural gas for domestic use.

Iraq is already subject to US tariffs of 35% under Trump’s decision to impose reciprocal tariffs with many countries last August.

Currently, gas exports from Iran have been suspended or severely curtailed due to a combination of extreme domestic heating demand and broader economic pressures.

India

India's total bilateral trade with Iran stood at $1.34 billion for the first 10 months of 2025, according to India's commerce ministry. Major Indian exports to Iran include basmati rice, fruits, vegetables, drugs and other pharmaceutical products.

The US president already imposed levies as high as 50% on Indian goods tied to their purchase of Russian oil. The two sides have been working for months to finalize a deal that would provide long-sought tariff relief to New Delhi.

Türkiye

Turkish exports to Iran were $2.3 billion in full-year 2025, while imports were $2.2 billion over 11 months of the year, according to sector and official data sources.

Germany

Iran's exports to Germany stood at around 217 million euros in the first eleven months of 2025, an increase of 1.7%, according to data from the state-owned international economic promotion agency Germany Trade & Invest. German exports to Iran fell by a quarter to 871 million euros over the period.

South Korea

South Korea's exports to Iran between January and November 2025 were marginal at $129 million, while imports stood at $1.6 million during the same period, according to data from the Korea International Trade Association.

Japan

Japan imported modest amounts of fruit, vegetables and textiles from Iran and shipped some machinery and vehicle engines there, according to the latest trade data from Japan that goes through November 2025.

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Business

Saudi Arabia Boosts Firms’ Readiness for Supply Chain Challenges

Container ship at King Abdullah Port (SPA)
Container ship at King Abdullah Port (SPA)
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Saudi Arabia Boosts Firms’ Readiness for Supply Chain Challenges

Container ship at King Abdullah Port (SPA)
Container ship at King Abdullah Port (SPA)

Amid mounting geopolitical tensions threatening global supply chains, particularly disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, Saudi Arabia is stepping up efforts to shield its economy by strengthening private sector readiness to withstand external shocks.

Asharq Al-Awsat has learned that the Federation of Saudi Chambers is moving to boost companies’ preparedness, unify procedures, and keep business flowing smoothly amid rising logistical risks.

The push underscores authorities’ focus on safeguarding the domestic market by helping businesses adapt quickly and strengthen operational resilience, supporting economic stability and sustained growth.

Future decisions

As part of efforts to bolster supply chain resilience, the Federation of Saudi Chambers is mapping challenges facing companies and national institutions, aiming to present the sector’s voice directly, build a clear picture of on-the-ground obstacles, and help shape future decisions.

It is tracking operational and logistical hurdles and turning them into inputs for relevant authorities to improve regulations and support market-based decision-making.

Improving the regulatory environment

The federation has asked companies to pinpoint challenges across ports, airports, logistics hubs, and warehouses, as well as those tied to regulators.

It urged firms to specify issues such as clearance or transit delays, procedural disruptions, added costs, lack of information, conflicting instructions, and regulatory requirements, along with their impact, whether financial or operational, including delivery delays, lost clients, suspended contracts, damaged cargo, and supply chain breakdowns.

The findings are expected to feed into regulatory improvements and more informed policymaking.

Alternative routes

Saudi Arabia has rolled out proactive logistics measures to reduce reliance on the Strait of Hormuz, including new corridors linking Gulf ports through alternative land and sea routes, Red Sea options, and additional shipping services to expand port capacity.

The Transport General Authority said licensed operators will be allowed to carry goods for third parties until Sept. 25, aiming to boost fleet efficiency and flexibility.

The authority said the step will help companies make better use of capacity, support supply chain continuity, and improve cargo movement within the kingdom and to neighboring countries.

On Thursday, it also approved regulatory updates extending deadlines for land freight firms to adjust their status, aiming to raise efficiency and compliance.

The extension covers heavy and light transport activities until Aug. 27, 2026, giving companies more time to meet regulatory requirements.

It also includes cases involving the reclassification of vehicle registration from private to public use in heavy freight, in a move to better regulate the sector and improve fleet utilization.

Business

War Hits Lebanon Dollar Lifeline, Remittances Fall Sharply

Lebanon’s central bank (National News Agency)
Lebanon’s central bank (National News Agency)
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War Hits Lebanon Dollar Lifeline, Remittances Fall Sharply

Lebanon’s central bank (National News Agency)
Lebanon’s central bank (National News Agency)

A Lebanese mother described the sharp decline in one of her last sources of income, once a pillar of her financial stability, as remittances from her son abroad dwindled in the wake of the war.

“My son used to send me $600 a month. I lived on it, covered my medication and basic needs. After the war, the transfer does not exceed $200,” she told Asharq Al-Awsat.

Her account reflects a broader trend among Lebanese households, in which remittances from relatives abroad have dropped by 10% to 15% during the war. The conflict has left its mark on multiple countries, including Lebanon, driving inflation and creating obstacles to money transfers.

The financial situation was also discussed in a meeting between Lebanese President Joseph Aoun and central bank governor Karim Saeed, where current monetary and financial conditions, exchange rate stability, and precautionary measures to maintain liquidity were reviewed.

Rapid contraction and rising pressure

The issue has reached the government. Economy Minister Amer Bisat presented updated wartime estimates to the cabinet on Thursday, highlighting economic contraction and declining incomes driven by large-scale displacement, along with a notable rise in unemployment.

He cited sectoral and field studies showing deteriorating indicators, estimating the contraction at 7%-10%, coupled with slower inflows of funds into the country.

Bisat said the situation remains “relatively under control,” noting that the ministry continues to pursue cases of monopoly and fraud through dozens of reports, judicial referrals, and the seizure of non-compliant goods.

He warned that a prolonged war would heighten economic risks, describing inflation as a real challenge, while the balance of payments remains within acceptable limits.

Impact on daily life

The Lebanese mother told Asharq Al-Awsat: “I used to organize my life around the $600 my son sent me every month. I would pay for medication first, then cover household needs. Now I have to ration spending. I can no longer pay the electricity bill regularly.”

She added: “I buy smaller quantities of everything and postpone whatever I can. Sometimes I ask the pharmacy for medicine on credit. I never imagined I would reach this point.”

In the Bekaa Valley, Abu Mohammad described a similar experience: “My son used to send $400 a month, now it barely reaches $200.”

“I relied on that amount to cover rent and basic expenses. Now everything has changed. We live day to day on installments. We buy only the bare minimum and delay everything, rent, bills, even some essentials,” he said.

“Sometimes we sit together as a family to decide what we can pay this month and what to postpone. This did not exist before. Now it is part of our daily life.”

A shrinking economic backbone

Economist Walid Abou Suleiman said remittances have formed the “backbone of Lebanon’s economy since the 2019 crisis,” noting that the country relies heavily on them to secure foreign currency, as Lebanon imports about 85% of its consumer needs.

He told Asharq Al-Awsat that annual remittances are estimated at around $6 billion, including roughly $3 billion from Gulf countries, but have begun to decline, with at least a 5% drop recorded in the first month of the crisis.

“The impact of crises does not appear immediately; it builds gradually in the following months, meaning the decline is likely to worsen,” he said.

Hundreds of millions in losses

Abou Suleiman expects remittances to fall by 10% to 15%, equivalent to annual losses of between $450 million and $500 million, or about $40 million per month.

This decline is compounded by job losses among Lebanese expatriates in the Gulf, increasing domestic pressure as some return to Lebanon.

He added that the war has also affected other sources of foreign currency, particularly tourism. “Seasons that used to inject dollars into the market, such as Easter, have been absent this year,” he said, adding that rising global oil prices are worsening the crisis, as Lebanon is among the countries most affected by energy costs.

“The treasury is bearing additional burdens estimated at around 18% due to these increases,” he said.

Abou Suleiman warned that global inflation directly impacts Lebanon. “We do not only import goods, but we also import inflation with them, given the absence of local production and self-sufficiency,” he said, cautioning that the economic outlook will deteriorate further if the war continues.

Ongoing decline and uncertain outlook

Economist Professor Jassem Ajaka said remittances to Lebanon have recorded a notable decline, estimating a drop of around 5% last week, possibly rising to between 5% and 10% as conditions continue to evolve, with no precise figure due to constantly changing data.

He said the decline is logical, as Lebanese workers in the Gulf and Europe have also been affected by slowing economic conditions there.

“The crisis is no longer confined to one country or region; it is global, though its impact varies from place to place,” he said.

Ajaka stressed that remittances remain a key pillar, alongside tourism, which is largely driven by expatriates. “The tourism sector is almost entirely halted. The season can be considered lost, and even the upcoming summer season is not guaranteed. Recovery will not be quick, even if the war ends,” he said.

Tourism revenues were estimated at between $4 billion and $4.5 billion annually, making them a major source of foreign currency.

Exports are also expected to decline by around 10% due to damage to the agricultural sector in the south and Bekaa, as well as higher industrial production costs driven by rising oil prices.

Dollar inflows shrink, risks expand

Ajaka said remittances now represent the last line of resilience for many Lebanese families, but this pillar is weakening with the current decline.

He warned that the most serious consequence is a shortage of dollars in the market, raising questions about Lebanon’s ability to finance imports of fuel, food, and medicine.

A temporary solution could involve the central bank financing imports from its foreign currency reserves, he said, but this would amount to crisis management, with repercussions worsening the longer it continues.

He added that pressures are not limited to economic factors, but also include measures that restrict dollar inflows, further reducing liquidity in the market.

Business

Dollar Jumps as Trump Pledges More Iran Strikes

FILE PHOTO: US dollar banknotes are seen in this illustration taken March 24, 2026. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: US dollar banknotes are seen in this illustration taken March 24, 2026. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo
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Dollar Jumps as Trump Pledges More Iran Strikes

FILE PHOTO: US dollar banknotes are seen in this illustration taken March 24, 2026. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: US dollar banknotes are seen in this illustration taken March 24, 2026. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo

The dollar rose sharply on Thursday after US President Donald Trump's address on Iran shattered hopes for a swift end to the conflict, sending investors towards safe-haven assets as oil prices jumped and stocks tumbled.

In a televised speech, Trump vowed more aggressive strikes on Iran in the next two to three weeks, offering no concrete timeline to open the Strait of Hormuz or end a war that has rattled investors and roiled markets, Reuters reported.

Iran's military responded with a warning for the United States and Israel of "more crushing, broader and more destructive" attacks in store.

Investors were quick to sell riskier assets such as stocks and buy the US dollar, pushing the yen, euro and sterling lower.

The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies, climbed 0.68% to 100.24 as the safe-haven trade came back on, putting it on track for its best day since March 18.

Thursday's advance wiped out most of the greenback's declines from the past two days amid earlier optimism about de-escalating the Iran war, putting it on track for another winning week.

Stocks slid and oil prices surged, with Brent crude futures rising almost 8% to $109.10 per barrel, after Trump's address sparked fresh concerns about sustained disruption.

"Trump's comments failed to reassure markets ... markets are starting to realize that the war will probably escalate further from here before de-escalating," said Carol Kong, a currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia.

"The dollar can definitely increase further from here against all the major currencies" as markets wake up to the fact that the global economy will slow down materially, she added.

Non-dollar currencies extended their falls as oil prices climbed in European trading.

The euro fell 0.66% to $1.1513 and sterling slid 0.88% to $1.319, both giving up some recent gains.

The risk-sensitive Australian dollar, commonly seen as a barometer of global growth expectations, fell 0.95% to $0.6863.

The Japanese yen traded 0.6% weaker at 159.72 per dollar , nearing the psychologically important 160 level that is viewed as the line in the sand for intervention by Japanese authorities.

Trump's comments also sent US Treasury yields higher on growing fears that inflation from higher oil prices would close the door to rate cuts.

That sets the stage for Friday's US non-farm payrolls report. The market is looking for a 60,000 rise in jobs for March, according to the median estimate of economists polled by Reuters.

"Another miss could rattle the markets and crank the volume up on the chorus warning about stagflation," said Kyle Rodda, senior financial market analyst at Capital.com.

"The markets could be extra choppy going into the Easter long weekend."