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Iran's Partners in Crisis after Trump Announces New Tariffs

The Iranian flag and 3D printed oil barrels miniature are seen in this illustration taken June 23, 2025. (Reuters)
The Iranian flag and 3D printed oil barrels miniature are seen in this illustration taken June 23, 2025. (Reuters)
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Iran's Partners in Crisis after Trump Announces New Tariffs

The Iranian flag and 3D printed oil barrels miniature are seen in this illustration taken June 23, 2025. (Reuters)
The Iranian flag and 3D printed oil barrels miniature are seen in this illustration taken June 23, 2025. (Reuters)

US President Donald Trump on Monday said any country that does business with Iran will face a tariff rate of 25% on any trade with the US as Washington weighs a response to the situation in Iran which is seeing its biggest anti-government protests in years.

Iran, a member of the OPEC oil producing group, exported products to 147 trading partners in 2022, according to World Bank's most recent data.

China and the United Arab Emirates are Iran’s largest trading partners, putting them at the top of the list of countries at risk of being hit by Trump’s 25% tariff threat, according to Bloomberg.

Countries like India, Brazil, Iraq, Türkiye and Russia are also major trade partners of Iran.

Fuel is Iran's biggest export item by value, while major imports include intermediate goods, vegetables, machinery and equipment.

China

China is the primary buyer of Iranian oil, which remains under international sanctions over Tehran's nuclear program.

In 2024, the trade turnover between the two countries amounted to $17.8 billion.

In 2025, China bought more than 80% of Iran's shipped oil, according to data from Kpler, an analytics firm.

Iranian oil has a limited pool of buyers because of US sanctions that seek to cut off funding to Tehran's nuclear program.

Also, Iran has a record amount of oil on the water, ​equivalent to about 50 days of output, with China having bought ‌less because of sanctions and Tehran seeking to protect its supplies from the risk of US strikes, data from Kpler and Vortexa shows.

Iranian oil imported by China is typically labelled by traders as originating from other countries, such as Malaysia, a major transshipment hub, and Indonesia.

Chinese customs data has not shown any oil shipped from Iran since July 2022.

UAE

While China is Iran's premier trade partner, the UAE is the second largest. Trade between Iran and the UAE has reached $16.11 billion, making it a vital center in Iran’s regional trade and putting the Emirates at the top of the list of countries at risk of being targeted by Trump’s tariffs.

Iraq

Iraq, Iran’s historical partner and geographically closest, ranks fourth globally with a trade volume reaching $12.3 billion, representing 9.9% of Iran’s total foreign trade activity.

In recent years, Iraq has relied on Iran to supply about 40% of its needs for gas and electricity, at a time when Iraqi infrastructure lacks the capacity to process natural gas for domestic use.

Iraq is already subject to US tariffs of 35% under Trump’s decision to impose reciprocal tariffs with many countries last August.

Currently, gas exports from Iran have been suspended or severely curtailed due to a combination of extreme domestic heating demand and broader economic pressures.

India

India's total bilateral trade with Iran stood at $1.34 billion for the first 10 months of 2025, according to India's commerce ministry. Major Indian exports to Iran include basmati rice, fruits, vegetables, drugs and other pharmaceutical products.

The US president already imposed levies as high as 50% on Indian goods tied to their purchase of Russian oil. The two sides have been working for months to finalize a deal that would provide long-sought tariff relief to New Delhi.

Türkiye

Turkish exports to Iran were $2.3 billion in full-year 2025, while imports were $2.2 billion over 11 months of the year, according to sector and official data sources.

Germany

Iran's exports to Germany stood at around 217 million euros in the first eleven months of 2025, an increase of 1.7%, according to data from the state-owned international economic promotion agency Germany Trade & Invest. German exports to Iran fell by a quarter to 871 million euros over the period.

South Korea

South Korea's exports to Iran between January and November 2025 were marginal at $129 million, while imports stood at $1.6 million during the same period, according to data from the Korea International Trade Association.

Japan

Japan imported modest amounts of fruit, vegetables and textiles from Iran and shipped some machinery and vehicle engines there, according to the latest trade data from Japan that goes through November 2025.

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Business

Saudi Arabia and Serbia Expand Partnership in Energy, Technology and Trade

Serbian Foreign Minister and Saudi Deputy Foreign Minister sign an agreement waiving visa requirements for holders of diplomatic and official passports. (X)
Serbian Foreign Minister and Saudi Deputy Foreign Minister sign an agreement waiving visa requirements for holders of diplomatic and official passports. (X)
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Saudi Arabia and Serbia Expand Partnership in Energy, Technology and Trade

Serbian Foreign Minister and Saudi Deputy Foreign Minister sign an agreement waiving visa requirements for holders of diplomatic and official passports. (X)
Serbian Foreign Minister and Saudi Deputy Foreign Minister sign an agreement waiving visa requirements for holders of diplomatic and official passports. (X)

Saudi-Serbian relations are moving toward a new phase of economic and diplomatic cooperation, as Riyadh and Belgrade work to expand their partnership in the energy, technology, agriculture and food industries sectors, alongside rapid growth in trade between the two countries. This comes as the hosting of EXPO 2027 in Belgrade and EXPO 2030 in Riyadh by Serbia and Saudi Arabia, respectively, opens additional avenues for exchanging expertise and building new partnerships and projects.

A meeting held last week in Belgrade between Saudi Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs Waleed A. M. Elkhereiji and Serbian Minister of Foreign Affairs Marko Đurić saw the signing of an agreement to cancel visa requirements for holders of diplomatic and official passports, in a step expected to support official contacts and strengthen cooperation between the two countries.

The two sides discussed ways to develop cooperation in the energy sector through joint projects, as well as in information and communications technology, advanced technologies, agriculture and the food industry. They also discussed strengthening the presence of Serbian companies in the Saudi market and increasing investment by Saudi partners in Serbia. Serbia is scheduled to participate in the Saudi Food exhibition in Jeddah later this month with more than 50 companies.

Three new initiatives for cooperation between the two countries were also launched during the meeting: "Digital Non-Aligned," the Film Festival of the Non-Aligned Movement, and an international seminar for young diplomats from member states of the movement. The initiatives are part of commemorations marking the 65th anniversary of the First Conference of the Non-Aligned Movement, which was hosted by Belgrade in 1961.

The meeting was held on the sidelines of a gathering marking the anniversary. Saudi Arabia was among the countries that participated in the founding conference and was represented at the time by Minister of Foreign Affairs Ibrahim bin Abdullah Al Suwaiyel, who planted the first "tree of peace."

Bizenic: Riyadh Is an Important Economic Partner

Serbian Ambassador to Saudi Arabia Dragan Bizenic told Asharq Al-Awsat that last Wednesday's meeting gave the Serbian foreign minister an opportunity to once again thank the relevant Saudi institutions for their "exceptional cooperation and support" during the evacuation of Serbian citizens from Riyadh following the recent events in the Middle East.

Bizenic affirmed his country's commitment to deepening comprehensive cooperation with Saudi Arabia, with a particular focus on the economic side. He said he was impressed by the results achieved by the Kingdom under Vision 2030, which he saw during his visit to Riyadh to participate in the Future Investment Initiative conference last year.

According to the Serbian foreign minister, Belgrade is interested in strengthening trade cooperation with Saudi Arabia, increasing exports of Serbian products, and benefiting from the expertise and knowledge of Saudi experts in the fields of science and technology. The two sides also discussed expanding partnership and cooperation through EXPO, in addition to increasing the volume of trade and mutual investments.

EXPO: A New Bridge for Partnership

Bizenic considers Saudi-Serbian cooperation through EXPO 2027 and EXPO 2030 to be a highly important area for deepening relations between the two countries, pointing to the meeting between Saudi Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs Waleed Elkhereiji and Minister of Foreign Trade, Mrs. Jagodom Lazarevic, who is also the commissioner of the EXPO 2027 exhibition in Belgrade.

He explained that Belgrade and Riyadh hosting two world expos in the coming years, EXPO 2027 Belgrade and EXPO 2030 Riyadh, represents a unique opportunity to turn the experience, knowledge and networks the two countries will gain through these events into new forms of cooperation and concrete projects.

He revealed that Saudi Arabia has already signed a contract to participate in EXPO 2027 Belgrade and will have one of the largest national pavilions at the exhibition, in a prominent location at the entrance to the EXPO area. He said the pavilion will provide the Kingdom with an opportunity to showcase its development potential, innovations, culture and business opportunities, as well as promote EXPO 2030 Riyadh.

Saudi Deputy Foreign Minister during his meeting with Serbian Minister of Internal and External Trade Jagoda Lazarević (X)

Trade Surges 152%

Bizenic noted that the Serbian foreign minister affirmed during his Wednesday meeting in Belgrade with Elkhereiji that Saudi Arabia could be "one of Serbia's key economic and political partners in the Arab world," given its membership in the Group of Twenty and OPEC+, as well as its weight in global energy markets. Saudi Arabia holds about 16 percent of the world's oil reserves.

The ambassador believes that strengthening Saudi-Serbian relations, opening the way for more investments and business projects, and expanding contacts between the business communities of the two countries would bring significant benefits to Serbia and support its economic presence in the region.

As an indicator of the growing economic ties, Bizenic said trade between Serbia and Saudi Arabia has recorded significant growth in recent years, reaching $121 million at the end of 2025, nine times its 2012 level. Trade continued to grow this year, reaching $130.4 million in the first half of 2026, an increase of 152 percent compared with the same period last year.

Business

Data Centers Open New Avenue for Localizing Saudi Cooling Industry

Nabil Shahin discusses standards developed by the US-based Air-Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute (AHRI). (LinkedIn) 
Nabil Shahin discusses standards developed by the US-based Air-Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute (AHRI). (LinkedIn) 
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Data Centers Open New Avenue for Localizing Saudi Cooling Industry

Nabil Shahin discusses standards developed by the US-based Air-Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute (AHRI). (LinkedIn) 
Nabil Shahin discusses standards developed by the US-based Air-Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute (AHRI). (LinkedIn) 

From buildings and megaprojects to data centers, demand for air-conditioning and cooling solutions is expanding across Saudi Arabia, driven by rapid construction and accelerating investment in digital infrastructure.

As artificial intelligence and cloud computing enter a period of rapid expansion, data centers are emerging as a new growth driver for the cooling industry, requiring advanced levels of efficiency and reliability and equipment capable of operating under harsh climatic conditions.

The boom extends beyond Saudi Arabia. Globally, the cooling industry is expanding as temperatures rise and demand for data centers grows. The International Energy Agency estimates that global electricity demand for building cooling has risen by about 50% since 2015 to around 2,900 terawatt-hours, while worldwide air-conditioner shipments reached about 200 million units in 2024.

Cooling buildings is placing increasing pressure on power grids, particularly during heat waves, while data centers and AI are adding another layer of demand for advanced cooling technologies.

Global data-center electricity consumption stood at around 415 TWh in 2024 and is projected to reach about 945 TWh by 2030, with cooling and environmental-control systems accounting for a significant share of energy use at these facilities.

The growth comes amid mounting pressure to improve air-conditioning efficiency and reduce its environmental impact. According to the UN Environment Program, global cooling demand could more than triple from current levels by 2050 under existing policies, making equipment efficiency and less energy-intensive technologies increasingly important.

These shifts offer Saudi Arabia an opportunity to expand its domestic air-conditioning and cooling manufacturing base as the Kingdom seeks to increase local content and meet more of its market needs through domestic production.

Nabil Shahin, managing director of the Middle East and North Africa office of the US-based Air-Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute (AHRI), told Asharq Al-Awsat that Saudi Arabia accounts for more than half of the Gulf air-conditioning market. He attributed the market’s growth to expanding commercial and construction projects, alongside the boom in data centers.

Data Centers Reshape Cooling Market

The Kingdom is experiencing a “growth boom” in data centers, according to the AHRI executive, fueled by the rapid spread of AI and rising demand for cloud-computing services. He noted that several US and European companies are developing data-center projects in Saudi Arabia.

As their cooling requirements increase, AHRI is working with the Saudi Standards, Metrology and Quality Organization (SASO) to develop and modify standards for data-center equipment to reflect the Kingdom’s temperatures, climatic conditions and local requirements.

Saudi Standard for Evaporative Coolers

Shahin noted that SASO had asked AHRI to develop a new standard for evaporative cooling systems, locally known as “desert coolers,” which use water in the cooling process rather than the refrigerants used in conventional air-conditioning systems.

There is currently no unified global standard for such systems, he explained. AHRI is developing the standard for submission to SASO, with the aim of providing a reference for manufacturers in the Saudi market.

The new standard will include energy-efficiency measurement criteria to assess equipment performance and suitability for local conditions.

Improving air-conditioning efficiency is particularly important in Saudi Arabia because of the sector’s high electricity consumption. More efficient systems could reduce power demand and emissions associated with electricity generation.

Saudi Arabia Leads Gulf Market

The AHRI executive estimated Saudi Arabia’s share of the Gulf air-conditioning market at more than 50%, with demand continuing to rise alongside commercial and construction projects, particularly in Riyadh, coastal areas and Makkah.

Some estimates put the Kingdom’s share at about 60%, he noted, but he prefers the more conservative figure of over 50% because no verified official data precisely establish its market share.

The scale of demand has made Saudi Arabia attractive to international companies, several of which have expanded their presence over the past two years by establishing new factories or enlarging existing facilities.

Local manufacturing can give companies an additional advantage by reducing some import costs, which can range from 5% to 12%, according to Shahin. He pointed to three large domestic factories that are expanding their operations.

From Assembly to Component Manufacturing

Localization, however, still faces the challenge of dependence on imported components. Most key air-conditioning components — including electric motors, compressors, copper and refrigerants — continue to come from abroad.

Much of Saudi Arabia’s current manufacturing activity remains focused on assembly, although some components, including heat exchangers, are produced domestically.

The next step, the AHRI official argued, is to move gradually from assembly toward manufacturing a greater proportion of air-conditioning components in the Kingdom, including electronics, circuit boards and electric motors.

He called for additional government incentives and support, including land, industrial space, free zones and investment facilities, to help Saudi factories expand and increase the share of locally manufactured components.

 

 

Business

Gold Slips on Rate-Hike Bets; Inflation Data in Focus

Gold jewelry is displayed at an exhibition in Kabul, Afghanistan, 03 September 2026. (EPA)
Gold jewelry is displayed at an exhibition in Kabul, Afghanistan, 03 September 2026. (EPA)
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Gold Slips on Rate-Hike Bets; Inflation Data in Focus

Gold jewelry is displayed at an exhibition in Kabul, Afghanistan, 03 September 2026. (EPA)
Gold jewelry is displayed at an exhibition in Kabul, Afghanistan, 03 September 2026. (EPA)

Gold slipped on Monday as strong US jobs data reinforced expectations for higher interest rates, while investors awaited key US inflation reports due later this week for further clarity on the Federal Reserve's policy path.

Spot gold was down 0.6% at $4,402.86 per ounce, as of 0420 GMT, after falling 1% on Friday.

US gold futures for December delivery were down 0.6% at $4,447.60.

Data ‌on Friday ‌showed US job growth accelerated sharply in August ‌while ⁠the unemployment rate ⁠held steady at 4.1%, suggesting an improvement in the labor market after recent struggles and keeping a rate increase this month on the table.

US producer price index (PPI) data is due on Thursday, followed by consumer price index (CPI) data on Friday.

"The jobs number delivered a clear upside surprise and put some pressure ⁠on the metal, but it wasn't a ‌complete slam dunk for a September ‌rate hike. The real missing piece of the puzzle arrives this ‌week with U.S. CPI," said Tim Waterer, chief market analyst ‌at KCM Trade.

"A strong inflation print would reinforce expectations of a Fed hike, lift yields further and weigh more heavily on gold."

Traders are pricing in a 58.4% chance of a rate hike ‌at the Fed's September 15-16 meeting, CME's FedWatch tool showed.

While gold is typically viewed as ⁠an inflation ⁠hedge, higher interest rates tend to weigh on the appeal of non-yielding bullion.

US President Donald Trump said on Friday that unless the Fed cuts interest rates, he would stop trading with countries with which the United States had a deficit.

On the Middle East front, Iran said it will step up efforts to tackle problems created by US sanctions that are crippling its economy, while a senior Iranian official warned of a "painful response" if it comes under further attack.

Among other metals, spot silver eased 0.6% to $65.80 per ounce, platinum lost 1.1% to $1,800.59 and palladium declined 0.5% to $1,394.00.