Oil Set for First Weekly Decline in Seven Weeks ahead of US-Iran Talks

The sun rises behind the Tishrin oil field in the eastern Hasakah countryside, northeastern Syria (AP)
The sun rises behind the Tishrin oil field in the eastern Hasakah countryside, northeastern Syria (AP)
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Oil Set for First Weekly Decline in Seven Weeks ahead of US-Iran Talks

The sun rises behind the Tishrin oil field in the eastern Hasakah countryside, northeastern Syria (AP)
The sun rises behind the Tishrin oil field in the eastern Hasakah countryside, northeastern Syria (AP)

US crude futures rose slightly on Friday but were on track for their first weekly drop in seven weeks as supply concerns eased, and investors focused on the outcome of US-Iran nuclear talks in Oman later in the day.

Brent crude futures rose 25 cents, or 0.4%, to $67.80 a barrel at 0353 GMT, ‌while the US ‌West Texas Intermediate crude was also ‌up ⁠25 cents, ‌or 0.4%, at $63.54 a barrel.

The benchmarks are down more than 3% from near six-month highs reached in late January when US President Donald Trump threatened to strike Iran, with the two sides set to hold talks in Oman on Friday.

However, Tehran and Washington have not agreed on the agenda for the ⁠meeting. Iran wants to discuss only nuclear issues, while the US is ‌pressing to include Iran's ballistic missiles, support ‍for armed groups around ‍the region and the treatment of its people.

"The two ‍sides remain well apart, leaving tensions elevated. This should see the geopolitical risk premium remain in place," Daniel Hynes, an analyst at ANZ, said in a note on Friday.

Any escalation of tensions between the US and Iran could disrupt oil flows, as about a fifth of the world's ⁠total oil consumption passes through the Strait of Hormuz between Oman and Iran.

Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Iraq export most of their crude via the strait, as does their fellow OPEC member Iran.

If the US-Iran talks ease the prospect of conflict in the region, oil prices could decline further.

"We think that geopolitical fears will give way to weak fundamentals," Capital Economics analysts said in a note, pointing to a recovery in Kazakhstan's oil output which will help push ‌oil prices lower, towards $50 per barrel by end-2026.



Barclays Says Brent Crude Oil Could Reach $100 a Barrel

FILE PHOTO: A map showing the Strait of Hormuz and Iran is seen behind a 3D printed oil pipeline in this illustration taken June 22, 2025. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: A map showing the Strait of Hormuz and Iran is seen behind a 3D printed oil pipeline in this illustration taken June 22, 2025. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo
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Barclays Says Brent Crude Oil Could Reach $100 a Barrel

FILE PHOTO: A map showing the Strait of Hormuz and Iran is seen behind a 3D printed oil pipeline in this illustration taken June 22, 2025. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: A map showing the Strait of Hormuz and Iran is seen behind a 3D printed oil pipeline in this illustration taken June 22, 2025. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo

Barclays boosted its Brent crude oil futures price forecast to around $100 per barrel on Saturday, up from $80 on Friday, after the United States and Israel bombed several sites in Iran.

"Oil markets might have to face their worst fears on Monday. As things stand right now, we think Brent could hit $100 (per barrel), as the market grapples with the threat of a ⁠potential supply disruption amid ⁠a spiraling security situation in the Middle East," the bank said in a report.

The United States and Israel attacked Iran on Saturday, targeting its top leaders and calling for the overthrow ⁠of its government, while Iran responded with missiles fired at Israel and neighboring Gulf countries.

Oil prices rose about 2% on Friday, with traders bracing for supply disruptions as nuclear talks between the US and Iran had yet to reach an agreement.

Brent settled at $72.48 a barrel.

About a fifth of the oil consumed globally passes through the Strait of ⁠Hormuz between ⁠Oman and Iran, making any disruptions in the area a major risk to global oil supplies.


Oil Prices Set for Swings Next Week as US-Israel Strikes Raise Supply Uncertainty

Markets are anticipating movements in oil prices after the American-Israeli attack on Iran (Reuters)
Markets are anticipating movements in oil prices after the American-Israeli attack on Iran (Reuters)
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Oil Prices Set for Swings Next Week as US-Israel Strikes Raise Supply Uncertainty

Markets are anticipating movements in oil prices after the American-Israeli attack on Iran (Reuters)
Markets are anticipating movements in oil prices after the American-Israeli attack on Iran (Reuters)

Oil markets currently closed for the weekend are set to see price swings next week as the impact from the US and Israeli strikes on oil supplies from the Middle East remains unclear.

Scenarios before the latest conflict with Iran foresaw a quick price spike that fades if the attacks didn't affect oil shipping and infrastructure such as Iranian pipelines and its Kharg island terminal. However, there would be a bigger price spike and longer-lasting impact if oil infrastructure or supplies were interrupted, for instance because of disruption of tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.

Oil prices have already risen on war fears. International benchmark Brent crude closed at a seven-month high of $72.87 on Friday, Reuters reported.

Iran exports some 1.6 million barrels of oil a day, most of it going to China, where privately owned refineries are less concerned about the US sanctions that prevent Iran from selling its oil elsewhere. If that supply is disrupted, Chinese customers would look elsewhere for oil on the global market, potentially driving up prices.

Another question is around the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of global oil supply pass through each day. Middle East exporters Saudi Arabia, Iraq and the United Arab Emirates send most of their exports through the strait. However analysts say Iran has no incentive to try to close the strait because it would cut off its own exports and hurt its only big customer, China.

Limited strikes on Iran’s nuclear program and the Revolutionary Guard that avoid regime change or all-out war could see prices jump $5-$10 based on fear alone, according to Rystad Energy in a prewar scenario.

A wider war involving Iranian disruption of tanker traffic could see crude push past $90 per barrel and US gas prices “well above” $3 per gallon, according to another prewar scenario from Clayton Seigle at the Center for Strategic & International Studies. US gas prices averaged $2.98 per gallon last week according to US motoring club AAA.


Israel Shuts Down Gas Fields After US-Israel Strikes on Iran

The gas platform for Leviathan, Israel's largest gas field is seen from a helicopter near Haifa bay, northern Israel, August 1, 2023. REUTERS/Ari Rabinovitch
The gas platform for Leviathan, Israel's largest gas field is seen from a helicopter near Haifa bay, northern Israel, August 1, 2023. REUTERS/Ari Rabinovitch
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Israel Shuts Down Gas Fields After US-Israel Strikes on Iran

The gas platform for Leviathan, Israel's largest gas field is seen from a helicopter near Haifa bay, northern Israel, August 1, 2023. REUTERS/Ari Rabinovitch
The gas platform for Leviathan, Israel's largest gas field is seen from a helicopter near Haifa bay, northern Israel, August 1, 2023. REUTERS/Ari Rabinovitch

The Israeli Energy Ministry has ordered the temporary shutdown of parts of the country's natural gas reservoirs after Israel and the United States launched strikes on Iran on Saturday.

The Leviathan gas field offshore Israel, operated by Chevron has been shut down, three sources told Reuters. Energean’s production vessel that serves several Israeli fields has also been shut down, the company said in a statement.

Israel’s ministry said the decision was based on “the current situation and in accordance with security assessments”, Reuters reported.

It said country’s energy needs would be met through alternative sources and that the electricity sector was prepared to operate power stations using alternative fuels if necessary.