ECB's Chief Economist Warns Euro Zone Inflation Could Surge on Lengthy Iran War

FILE PHOTO: A view of the European Central Bank (ECB) headquarters in Frankfurt, Germany, March 6, 2025. REUTERS/Jana Rodenbusch/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: A view of the European Central Bank (ECB) headquarters in Frankfurt, Germany, March 6, 2025. REUTERS/Jana Rodenbusch/File Photo
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ECB's Chief Economist Warns Euro Zone Inflation Could Surge on Lengthy Iran War

FILE PHOTO: A view of the European Central Bank (ECB) headquarters in Frankfurt, Germany, March 6, 2025. REUTERS/Jana Rodenbusch/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: A view of the European Central Bank (ECB) headquarters in Frankfurt, Germany, March 6, 2025. REUTERS/Jana Rodenbusch/File Photo

A prolonged war in the Middle East could cause a substantial spike in euro zone inflation and reduce economic growth, European Central Bank Chief Economist Philip Lane told the Financial Times in an interview published on Tuesday.

A US and Israeli war against Iran widened on Monday, with no end in sight as Israel attacked Lebanon and Iran kept up its attacks on Gulf states, pushing up oil prices by over 10%.

"Directionally, a jump in energy prices puts upward pressure on inflation, especially in the ⁠near-term, and such ⁠a conflict would be negative for economic activity," Lane said.

"The scale of the impact and the implications for medium-term inflation depend on the breadth and duration of the conflict," he said, adding that the ECB would monitor the situation.

Previous sensitivity analyses done by the ECB showed ⁠that such a war would lead to a 'substantial spike' in energy-driven inflation and a 'sharp drop' in output, if there was a persistent drop in energy supplies out of the region, Lane said.

A separate analysis by the ECB from December meanwhile suggests that a permanent oil price spike of this magnitude could lift inflation by 0.5 percentage point and lower growth by 0.1 percentage point.

Euro zone inflation now stands at 1.7%, below the bank's 2% target, ⁠suggesting that ⁠a small jump in price growth is unlikely to trigger policy action, especially since monetary policy acts with long lags and is considered powerless against near-term swings in prices.

The ECB also tends to look past energy-induced volatility in prices as long as fluctuations do not impact longer-term expectations and do not seep into underlying inflation via second-round effects.

For now, market-based longer-term inflation expectations are little changed and markets continue to expect no change in the ECB's 2% deposit rate all year.



West African Leaders Approve Nigeria-Morocco Gas Pipeline

Presidents and government representatives attend the 69th Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) Summit in Freetown, Sierra Leone, July 19, 2026. (Reuters)
Presidents and government representatives attend the 69th Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) Summit in Freetown, Sierra Leone, July 19, 2026. (Reuters)
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West African Leaders Approve Nigeria-Morocco Gas Pipeline

Presidents and government representatives attend the 69th Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) Summit in Freetown, Sierra Leone, July 19, 2026. (Reuters)
Presidents and government representatives attend the 69th Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) Summit in Freetown, Sierra Leone, July 19, 2026. (Reuters)

West African leaders on Sunday signed an agreement approving the construction of a gas pipeline linking Nigeria to Morocco at a summit of regional bloc ECOWAS in Sierra Leone's capital Freetown.

The roughly 6,000-kilometer (3,700-mile) Nigeria-Morocco Gas Pipeline (NMGP) will cross 13 countries along Africa's Atlantic coast, carrying Nigerian gas to Morocco before connecting to the Maghreb-Europe pipeline.

"We have already signed the West Africa-Morocco gas pipeline," said ECOWAS chair Julius Maada Bio said. "Don't be surprised when the gas comes your way."

Morocco's state hydrocarbons agency ONHYM and Nigeria's state oil company NNPC said in a statement that the project aimed to link west Africa's gas resources to major regional markets.

It also hopes to "strengthen the integration of African energy markets and create a new development corridor linking" west Africa, the Sahel, Morocco and Europe.

The next steps include creating a "project company" based in Casablanca and a governing authority headquartered in Abuja before investors are brought on board and a final investment decision is taken, they added.

Construction is expected to begin in 2028, with the first gas deliveries targeted for 2031, said an ONHYM source.

The project, first proposed during Moroccan King Mohammed VI's visit to Abuja in 2016, is estimated to cost around $27 billion.

Its revival has been driven in part by Algeria's 2022 decision to stop supplying gas to Spain via Morocco after diplomatic ties between Algiers and Rabat broke down.


Brent Oil Tops $90 as US, Iran Intensify Attacks in Middle East

 Vessels at the Strait of Hormuz, as seen from Musandam,Oman, July 15, 2026. (Reuters)
Vessels at the Strait of Hormuz, as seen from Musandam,Oman, July 15, 2026. (Reuters)
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Brent Oil Tops $90 as US, Iran Intensify Attacks in Middle East

 Vessels at the Strait of Hormuz, as seen from Musandam,Oman, July 15, 2026. (Reuters)
Vessels at the Strait of Hormuz, as seen from Musandam,Oman, July 15, 2026. (Reuters)

Oil prices jumped 3% on Monday, with Brent surpassing $90 a barrel, as the United States and Iran expanded attacks in the Middle East that have curbed energy shipments in the Strait of Hormuz.

Brent crude futures climbed $2.69, or 3.05%, to $90.79 by 2343 GMT, touching the highest since June 11, extending gains after rising 15.9% last week, its biggest weekly gain since April.

US West Texas Intermediate crude was at $84.68 a barrel, ‌up $2.19, or 2.65%, ‌the loftiest since June 12. Front-month prices ‌gained ⁠15.5% last week, ⁠the largest weekly ascent since early March.

The Middle East conflict escalated over the weekend with the US conducting a ninth straight night of attacks against Iran, while Kuwait and Bahrain reported more Iranian strikes.

In recent days both sides have taken aim at shipping traffic, ⁠with the US saying it is ‌enforcing a naval blockade on ‌Iranian ports, and Iran saying it targets vessels violating its rules ‌on navigating the Strait of Hormuz, which usually handles ‌one-fifth of global oil trade.

"The coming days and weeks ‌will provide a clearer picture of the sustainable level of oil exports from the ⁠region ⁠under renewed dual blockades," Barclays analyst Amarpreet Singh said in a note.

"As things stand, we think oil markets are still too complacent about the potential fallout for inventories, which, unlike at the beginning of the war, are at the tightest of the past five years."

Four vessels made the transit through the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday, down from eight in the previous day, LSEG data showed. At least three oil products tankers and one Very Large Crude Carrier, have entered the strait since Friday to load oil, the data showed.


Saudi Arabia Announces Entry into Classification Phase, Real Estate Advertising Is Conditional on FAL License

A panel discussion is held at the Real Estate Brokerage Forum in Riyadh. (SPA)
A panel discussion is held at the Real Estate Brokerage Forum in Riyadh. (SPA)
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Saudi Arabia Announces Entry into Classification Phase, Real Estate Advertising Is Conditional on FAL License

A panel discussion is held at the Real Estate Brokerage Forum in Riyadh. (SPA)
A panel discussion is held at the Real Estate Brokerage Forum in Riyadh. (SPA)

The Saudi government announced during the Real Estate Brokerage Forum, which concluded its activities Sunday in Riyadh, the entry into the real estate classification phase, and the upcoming release of two draft guides for classifying real estate brokerage and marketing establishments and real estate auction establishments through the "Istitlaa" platform.

This aims to develop standards that enhance the clarity of establishment data and raise the quality of practice with the participation of the sector and the public.

The event also witnessed the announcement that real estate advertising will be restricted exclusively to those licensed to practice real estate brokerage and marketing activity through the FAL license.

The event revealed that the number of sales and rental transactions registered since the Real Estate Brokerage Law came into effect in Saudi Arabia has reached more than 13 million transactions, with a total value exceeding 1.6 trillion riyals ($426.6 billion).

These indicators highlight the size of the market in which the system operates, as well as the importance of the licensed broker's role in regulating the relationship between parties, documenting transactions, and enhancing the clarity of practice and service quality.

These figures emerged as the Real Estate General Authority (REGA) concluded the activities of the third edition of the Real Estate Brokerage Forum, marking three years since the Real Estate Brokerage Law came into effect.

The event was held in the presence of Chief Executive Officer of the Authority Engineer Abdullah bin Saud Al-Hammad with the participation of a number of experts, specialists, real estate brokers, brokerage establishments, and individuals interested in the real estate sector.

The forum reviewed the indicators of real estate brokerage activity from the time the law came into effect until the end of last June; the total number of real estate brokerage licenses issued to individuals and establishments reached more than 117,000 licenses, and the number of brokerage contracts reached 1.1 million.

The number of real estate advertisements exceeded 1.2 million advertisements, reflecting the expanding scope of licensed practice and the growing presence of documentation and regulated advertising in the real estate market.

The main session discussed the most significant changes in the real estate market and the tools that enable brokers to keep pace with them, foremost of which are the development of rules and regulations, real estate technologies and artificial intelligence, and changing consumer behavior.

Discussions also tackled the developmental and investment transformations taking place in the Kingdom and their implications for the future of real estate brokerage.

The speakers stressed that real estate rules and regulations have contributed to building a clearer contractual environment that preserves the rights of transacting parties.

They noted that a broker's professionalism is linked to knowledge, speed of execution, compliance with regulations, and understanding the scope of work, projects, and markets in which they operate.

They also said that the advanced digital infrastructure in the Kingdom grants brokers more efficient tools to verify and analyze data and to develop the customer experience.

The forum witnessed the announcement of the real estate brokerage levels track aimed at building a gradual professional qualification journey that raises practitioner readiness and combines regulatory knowledge with applied skills.

The real estate rules and regulations diploma was announced, which is offered by the Saudi Real Estate Institute in cooperation with the Institute of Public Administration. It aims to prepare specialized legal and regulatory competencies that meet the needs of the sector.

A cooperation agreement was signed between the Saudi Real Estate Institute and King Saud University to launch the Real Estate Fellowship Program.

The forum included awareness workshops addressing anti-money laundering and the role of the Saudi Real Estate Arbitration Center in settling real estate disputes.

The forum concluded with honoring the winners of the Real Estate Awareness Award, which aims to stimulate initiatives and programs to enrich specialized real estate content.

The Real Estate Brokerage Forum is held annually in conjunction with the anniversary of the Real Estate Brokerage Law coming into effect. It brings together practitioners, establishments, platforms, and specialists to discuss the profession's updates, exchange experiences, and review tracks and enablers that support the development of practice and elevate the quality of real estate services.