Global Sugar Prices Rally as Oil surges, Driven by Middle East War

Small pieces of sugar (Pixels)
Small pieces of sugar (Pixels)
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Global Sugar Prices Rally as Oil surges, Driven by Middle East War

Small pieces of sugar (Pixels)
Small pieces of sugar (Pixels)

World sugar prices surged on Monday as the US-Israel war with Iran disrupted oil supplies, pushing crude oil prices to $119 a barrel and sparking fears that Brazilian cane mills would ramp up ethanol production at the expense of sugar.

Most ethanol in Brazil, the world's largest sugar producer and exporter, is made from sugarcane, meaning increased cane allocation for biofuel production would reduce the raw material available to produce sugar.

At 1422 GMT, raw sugar price futures on the ICE exchange rose3.4% at 14.58 cents per lb, while white sugar futures were up 1.5% at $420.70 a metric ton, after earlier gaining nearly 3%, Reuters reported.

Ethanol demand is growing thanks to soaring crude oil prices, which have now more than doubled since the start of the year, said Alberto Peixoto, director at broker and consultant AP Commodities.

Oil prices soared to their highest levels since mid-2022 earlier, as the Strait of Hormuz remained virtually closed, cutting off countries worldwide from a fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas supplies.

The spike in energy prices has overshadowed the impact of a rising dollar, which usually curbs dollar-priced commodities like sugar by making them more expensive for non-US currency holders.

What is keeping sugar's gains in check, however, is the risk of weaker demand from the Gulf States. According to sugar consultant Michael McDougall, the Gulf imports roughly 10% of the world's raw sugar via the Strait of Hormuz each year.

In other soft commodities traded, arabica coffee rose 1.1% to $2.9645 per lb, having gained 4.5% last week, while robusta coffee dipped 0.3% to $3,763 a ton, having gained 4% last week.

London cocoa was little changed at 2,315 pounds per ton, while New York cocoa was also little changed at $3,229 a ton.



EU, China Trade Tensions Loom over Minister Visit

Chinese Commerce Minister Wang Wentao will meet his EU counterpart Maros Sefcovic in Brussels. Pedro PARDO, Annabelle GORDON / AFP/File
Chinese Commerce Minister Wang Wentao will meet his EU counterpart Maros Sefcovic in Brussels. Pedro PARDO, Annabelle GORDON / AFP/File
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EU, China Trade Tensions Loom over Minister Visit

Chinese Commerce Minister Wang Wentao will meet his EU counterpart Maros Sefcovic in Brussels. Pedro PARDO, Annabelle GORDON / AFP/File
Chinese Commerce Minister Wang Wentao will meet his EU counterpart Maros Sefcovic in Brussels. Pedro PARDO, Annabelle GORDON / AFP/File

Europe and China will gauge whether trade frictions can be resolved through talks Monday when top EU trade official Maros Sefcovic hosts his Chinese counterpart Wang Wentao in Brussels for day-long discussions.

The European Union has turned its attention to China as Brussels frets over increasing trade imbalances between the 27-nation bloc and the Asian powerhouse.

The issue is existential for the EU, AFP reported.

Brussels fears it will lose certain industries entirely if it does not act against a glut of cheap goods made in China threatening manufacturers in Europe.

Wang's visit comes less than two weeks after EU leaders tasked the European Commission with tackling the issue through talks with Beijing -- while simultaneously preparing beefed-up defense measures to protect key sectors.

Sefcovic will tell Wang the current imbalances are unsustainable for the EU before hosting the Chinese minister for a special dinner on Monday evening.

The EU's trade deficit in goods hit around 360 billion euros ($410 billion) in 2025, meaning the bloc imported way more from China than it exported there.

In turn, Wang will likely seek to understand how serious the EU is in threatening to deploy its trade defense armory against Beijing.

But the EU still hopes to avoid a trade war with its second-largest trading partner for goods alone, according to the European Commission -- with China making clear it will retaliate against actions it views as unfair.

Following Trump's playbook?

Europe insists on the need for a level-playing field, pointing out that Chinese firms have an unfair advantage because of massive state subsidies.

The numbers support Brussels' argument. Between 2005 and 2024, Chinese companies received around three to eight times more government support than businesses in the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, according to the OECD, which called it "a conservative estimate".

The EU has an arsenal of trade defense tools it can use to address the issue.

These include imposing higher tariffs if investigations prove companies are selling goods at unfairly low prices or if there is state support that gives an unjust advantage to the manufacturers.

Brussels could also slap restrictions known as safeguard measures -- including quotas -- if there is a sudden surge in imports.

New measures are likely also on the way.

The European Commission, which leads EU trade policy, is working on an instrument that would force businesses to diversify their suppliers in critical sectors like chips and rare earths.

And French President Emmanuel Macron in May proposed a European "Section 301" -- the trade tool US President Donald Trump has employed to set higher tariffs for certain sectors after investigations.

'Not enemies'

The EU has taken several measures to confront soaring imports from China including doubling its duties on foreign steel, slapping higher levies on small parcels from abroad and hefty tariffs on Chinese-made electric vehicles.

Despite growing acceptance of the need to get tougher however, Brussels has shown zero appetite for a painful trade war with Beijing.

Beijing warns it is ready to respond to any measures it believes target China.

They are not empty threats for the EU since China previously slapped duties on European cognac and conducted anti-dumping probes into pork and dairy products.

The warning weighs on EU capitals.

Germany has until recently been more cautious since it is more exposed to China's economy but the biggest supporter of a more pragmatic approach has been Spain as it seeks Beijing's investment.

Although he echoed China's retaliation warning last week, Beijing's envoy to the EU Cai Run also urged dialogue as he told a Brussels audience that the bloc and Beijing were "partners, not rivals, and certainly not enemies".

The relationship is significant for China too: the EU is its second-largest trading partner.

After dinner with Sefcovic, Wang will head to London.


Oil Climbs Following Renewed US, Iran Strikes

The 'Al-Yarmouk' oil tanker sails in the Arabian Gulf waters, off the coast of Kuwait City on June 27, 2026. (Photo by YASSER AL-ZAYYAT / AFP)
The 'Al-Yarmouk' oil tanker sails in the Arabian Gulf waters, off the coast of Kuwait City on June 27, 2026. (Photo by YASSER AL-ZAYYAT / AFP)
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Oil Climbs Following Renewed US, Iran Strikes

The 'Al-Yarmouk' oil tanker sails in the Arabian Gulf waters, off the coast of Kuwait City on June 27, 2026. (Photo by YASSER AL-ZAYYAT / AFP)
The 'Al-Yarmouk' oil tanker sails in the Arabian Gulf waters, off the coast of Kuwait City on June 27, 2026. (Photo by YASSER AL-ZAYYAT / AFP)

Oil prices rose on Monday following days of tit-for-tat strikes by the U.S. and Iran that underscored the fragility of their interim peace deal and again slowed energy shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

Brent crude futures climbed 45 cents, or 0.6%, to $72.44 a barrel at 0627 GMT while US West Texas Intermediate crude was at $70.05 a barrel, up 82 cents, or 1.2%, Reuters reported.

"There's still plenty of risk facing the oil market. Even so, participants appear to be ... focusing on what a continued recovery in oil ⁠flows would mean ⁠for the global balance," ING analysts said in a note on Monday.

"This complacency is odd and clearly leaves significant upside risk if the supply recovery proves slow."

Brent crude fell 10.6% last week, its third weekly decline, after crude shipments through the strait rose last week to their highest level since the US-Israeli war on Iran ⁠began in late February.

However, traffic has since slowed following renewed attacks on ships in the strait from Thursday that triggered strikes from the US and Iran in the worst escalation since they signed an interim peace deal.

Capping oil price gains, Iran and the US agreed to halt recent hostilities in the Gulf and renew talks regarding their dispute over the Strait of Hormuz, a US official said on Sunday.


Gold Slips as Fresh US-Iran Strikes Boost Oil, Fed Rate-hike Bets Weigh

AFP_96Gold bars weighing 1000 grams each are displayed at the Austrian Gold and Silver Refinery _Oegussa_ in Vienna
AFP_96Gold bars weighing 1000 grams each are displayed at the Austrian Gold and Silver Refinery _Oegussa_ in Vienna
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Gold Slips as Fresh US-Iran Strikes Boost Oil, Fed Rate-hike Bets Weigh

AFP_96Gold bars weighing 1000 grams each are displayed at the Austrian Gold and Silver Refinery _Oegussa_ in Vienna
AFP_96Gold bars weighing 1000 grams each are displayed at the Austrian Gold and Silver Refinery _Oegussa_ in Vienna

Gold prices eased on Monday as recent US-Iran strikes in the Gulf pushed oil prices higher, while expectations of US Federal Reserve interest rate hikes further weighed on the non-yielding metal, Reuters reported.

Spot gold was down 0.8% at $4,057.77 per ounce, as of 0602 GMT. US gold futures for August delivery lost 0.6% to $4,072.20. The metal was headed for a ‌fourth consecutive monthly ‌loss of 10.5%.

"US and Iran were at ‌it ⁠again over the ⁠weekend, with fresh military strikes reported from both parties, which casts further doubt over how long oil can stay at these subdued levels and therefore over the broader inflation and interest rate outlook," said Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade.

Oil prices rose after Iran launched missiles and drones at US military sites in Kuwait ⁠and Bahrain early on Sunday, shortly after US President ‌Donald Trump threatened to wipe ‌out the Iranian leadership if they did not stick to the agreement ‌to end their war.

However, Tehran and Washington agreed to halt recent hostilities ‌in the Gulf and renew talks regarding their dispute over the Strait of Hormuz, Axios reported on Sunday.

Elevated crude oil prices can fuel inflation and chances of interest rate hikes, and while gold is typically ‌seen as an inflation hedge, it loses its appeal as a non-yielding asset in a high interest-rate ⁠environment.

Traders expect ⁠three Fed rate hikes this year and are pricing in an about 80% chance of a December increase, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

Investors are now looking out for June's ADP employment data and the US nonfarm payrolls data, both due later this week, to further gauge the Fed's monetary policy stance.

"Gold could see the $5,000 level again this year but this would be based on further de-escalation, oil having a sustained move to pre-war levels to dull the inflationary impact of the conflict, and a softer dollar," said Waterer.

Spot silver fell 0.9% to $58.64 per ounce, while platinum gained 0.1% to $1,616.55 and palladium rose 1% to $1,221.29.