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UK Suffers OECD's Biggest Growth Downgrade as Iran War Pushes Up Energy Costs

This overhead view shows buildings along the River Thames in London on March 25, 2026. (Photo by JUSTIN TALLIS / AFP)
This overhead view shows buildings along the River Thames in London on March 25, 2026. (Photo by JUSTIN TALLIS / AFP)
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UK Suffers OECD's Biggest Growth Downgrade as Iran War Pushes Up Energy Costs

This overhead view shows buildings along the River Thames in London on March 25, 2026. (Photo by JUSTIN TALLIS / AFP)
This overhead view shows buildings along the River Thames in London on March 25, 2026. (Photo by JUSTIN TALLIS / AFP)

Britain's economic ‌growth prospects this year received the sharpest downgrade of any major economy in the OECD's interim forecast update on Thursday following the US-Israeli war ​on Iran, while inflation is set to rise faster too.

The Paris-based international body cut its 2026 forecast for British economic growth by half a percentage point to 0.7%, compared with a 0.4 percentage point downgrade for the euro zone and a 0.3 percentage point upgrade for the United States.

"Planned fiscal tightening and higher energy prices ‌are anticipated to keep ‌growth subdued in the United ​Kingdom, ‌though the ⁠impact ​will be ⁠attenuated by lower policy rates next year," Reuters quoted the OECD as saying in its report.

Following are further highlights from the report and other context:

Britain's growth forecast for 2027 is unchanged at 1.3%.

Britain's inflation forecast for 2026 is revised up by 1.5 percentage points from December to 4.0%, the ⁠biggest upward revision of any large, advanced ‌economy.

UK inflation in 2027 ‌is forecast to be 2.6%, 0.5 percentage ​points higher than in ‌December and above the Bank of England's 2% target.

Poorer UK households spend more on gas and electricity than in other rich countries, though total energy spending makes up a smaller share of UK inflation than elsewhere.

The OECD expects the ‌BoE to keep interest rates unchanged this year then cut in Q1 2027 as inflation ⁠eases.

⁠Britain's Office for Budget Responsibility, in forecasts finalized just before the start of the conflict, predicted GDP growth of 1.1% this year and 1.6% in 2027.

The BoE this month forecast inflation would rise to 3.0-3.5% over the next couple of quarters.

Prime Minister Keir Starmer has made boosting growth and reducing the cost of living top goals for his government.

Finance minister Rachel Reeves said the forecasts showed the war in the Middle East ​was affecting Britain but ​she would still focus on "regional growth, embracing AI and innovation, and establishing a closer relationship with the EU."

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Business

Türkiye Cuts Key Interest Rate to 36%, First Cut in Months

Central Bank of Türkiye (Official Website)
Central Bank of Türkiye (Official Website)
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Türkiye Cuts Key Interest Rate to 36%, First Cut in Months

Central Bank of Türkiye (Official Website)
Central Bank of Türkiye (Official Website)

Türkiye's central bank cut its key interest rate on Thursday to 36 percent in the first cut in nine months, pointing to a recent slowdown in inflation.

At a policy meeting, the bank "decided to reduce the policy interest rate ... from 37 percent to 36 percent," it said in a statement.

It was the first cut since January when the bank cut the key rate from 38 to 37 percent, a rate which it held until Thursday's meeting.

"Despite monthly fluctuations, recent inflation figures and leading indicators confirm the downward trend," a bank statement said.

"Data on economic activity and the limited impact of supply shocks on domestic prices suggest that the weak trend in domestic demand continues," it added.

However, ongoing geopolitical tensions were keeping energy prices high, which could push inflation higher, it warned, saying the effects of such geopolitical developments "are being closely monitored".

Türkiye's annual inflation rate eased to 29.7 percent in September from 31.5 percent in August - the first time it had fallen below 30 percent in nearly five years, official figures showed.

At the time, Finance Minister Mehmet Simsek said it was at its lowest level since November 2021. "Disinflation is spreading across the board, excluding transportation," he wrote on X.

The official figures are disputed by the ENAG group of independent economists that publishes its own data, which said its figures showed year-on-year inflation stood at 46.6 percent in September.

 

 

 

 

Business

Saudi Stock Market Drops 2.3% to Lowest Close Since 2021

A person stands in front of a screen showing falling stock prices (Reuters)
A person stands in front of a screen showing falling stock prices (Reuters)
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Saudi Stock Market Drops 2.3% to Lowest Close Since 2021

A person stands in front of a screen showing falling stock prices (Reuters)
A person stands in front of a screen showing falling stock prices (Reuters)

Saudi Arabia's benchmark stock index ended Thursday's session down 2.3 percent, shedding 231 points to close at 9,696, its lowest closing level since 2021, with total trading turnover reaching approximately SAR 4.9 billion.

The Tadawul All Share Index (TASI) fluctuated between an intraday low of 9,640 points and a high of 9,888 points.

Thursday's decline brought the index's weekly losses to more than 400 points, or 4.1 percent, marking its eighth consecutive week of declines.

Most stocks fell during the session, led by Saudi National Bank, which dropped more than 5 percent to SAR 34.62, with approximately 9 million shares traded.

Saudi Aramco and Al Rajhi Bank each declined 1 percent, closing at SAR 25.40 and SAR 59.80, respectively, while Maaden fell 5 percent to SAR 55.90.

Shares of Retal, Al Yamamah Steel, East Pipes, Jahez, Gulf Training and Saudi Steel Pipe ended the session with losses ranging from 5 to 9 percent.

Meanwhile, Electrical Industries, Abo Moati, Umm Al-Qura Cement, Saleh Al-Rashed, Wafrah, Saudi Vitrified Clay Pipe and Watani Iron Steel each fell 10 percent.

On the upside, Al-Etihad rose 10 percent to SAR 6.16, followed by JAZADCO with gains exceeding 9 percent. Shares of Al Arabia, UCIC and Saudi Kayan advanced between 1 and 3 percent.

Business

Barclays Bank to Cut about 5,000 Jobs amid AI Drive

Barclays says the job cuts are due to AI efficiencies. Paul ELLIS / AFP/File
Barclays says the job cuts are due to AI efficiencies. Paul ELLIS / AFP/File
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Barclays Bank to Cut about 5,000 Jobs amid AI Drive

Barclays says the job cuts are due to AI efficiencies. Paul ELLIS / AFP/File
Barclays says the job cuts are due to AI efficiencies. Paul ELLIS / AFP/File

British bank Barclays announced Thursday plans to cut around 5,000 jobs, or roughly five percent of its global workforce, by the end of 2026 in an AI efficiency drive.

The announcement came alongside an earnings update that showed Barclays' net profit grew 13 percent in the third quarter, fueled by surging income across its equities division, said AFP.

Barclays said in an earnings presentation that it was implementing "organizational simplification and technology change efficiency driven by AI".

"About 60 percent of the job losses relate to support functions, including fewer developers as AI makes our people more productive," it added.

The bank's profit after tax grew to £1.65 billion ($2.2 billion) in the third quarter from £1.46 billion in the July-September period a year earlier.

Barclays chief executive C. S. Venkatakrishnan noted "ongoing momentum of... operational and financial performance" and said the investment bank division "delivered strong equities performance".

Revenue from equities jumped 47 percent year-on-year, while total group income for the quarter climbed three percent to £7.37 billion.

Barclays' share price was up slightly following the news updates.

The AI "announcement comes as the company failed to match expectations with its third-quarter performance -- with the unveiling of a healthy share buyback failing to entirely ease investors' disappointment", noted AJ Bell investment director Russ Mould.

"Across the wider group, costs went up and Barclays shareholders are also having to contend with two major clouds over the business.

"The first being a widely expected increase in tax on the sector in next week's (UK) budget and the other being a reported probe into possible misrepresentation of risks in its private credit portfolio."