The International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD) said the repercussions of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz have triggered a global food security shock, warning that disruptions to fertilizer and fuel supplies, rising input costs, and declining purchasing power are threatening production at a critical point in the agricultural season. This is driving food prices higher and will severely affect the world’s most vulnerable populations.
Gerardine Mukeshimana, Vice President of IFAD, told Asharq Al-Awsat that the repercussions of the US-Israeli-Iranian conflict have led to a global food security shock that has already begun to manifest in local food crises, particularly for small-scale producers and rural populations.
On this Mukeshimana said “The ripple effects of the conflict have triggered a global food security shock that is already translating into local food crises, particularly for small-scale producers and rural populations. While it is too early to quantify a precise global ‘food gap,’ nor foresee all possible consequences, we do know that many of the women and men who produce our food are already under pressure.”
Critical timing and heightened risks
Mukeshimana stressed the seriousness of the timing, as farmers across nearly half the world are entering critical agricultural seasons between March and June. Any shortage of inputs at this stage will inevitably lead to lower yields and reduced food availability in the coming months.
“Between March and June, farmers across nearly half the world enter critical planting seasons, meaning that input shortfalls and price spikes today risk lower harvests and tighter food availability in the months ahead. As past crises have shown, these shocks do not originate at the farm level, but they ultimately land there, among those with the least capacity to absorb them.”
Impact of shipping disruptions on agricultural production
On the repercussions of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz on the passage of ships carrying agricultural inputs and fertilizers, and estimates of losses over the past 40 days, Mukeshimana said: “The abrupt halt and severe disruption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb has had immediate repercussions for fertilizers, fuel and other agricultural inputs. While exact volume losses over the past 40 days vary by commodity and route, evidence from IFAD investments points to significant shipment delays, curtailed exports and cascading market effects, from reduced planting to distorted farm-gate prices and declining rural incomes, as gathered in detail by the position paper, ‘Global shock, local crisis,’ published by Alvaro Lario, President of IFAD this week.”
She noted that these impacts are clearly reflected in shrinking cultivated areas, distortions in agricultural price structures, and a deterioration in farmers’ net incomes, as documented in the position paper issued this week by IFAD President Alvaro Lario titled “Global shock, local crisis,” which warned that international logistical disruptions are translating into severe local livelihood crises.
Import-dependent countries in a double bind
“The supply chain disruptions are cutting off farmers’ access to markets to both purchase inputs – such as seeds, veterinary medicines, and equipment – and sell their products both domestically and as exports. The result: farmers’ expenses rise as their income drops.”
Mukeshimana said this represents a global risk, as small-scale farmers produce about one-third of the world’s food, and up to 70 percent in Africa. When their production declines due to input shortages, it leads to reduced output, higher prices, deeper vulnerability, and rising hunger.
She warned that these repercussions directly translate into lower production levels, rising prices, and worsening economic vulnerability, ultimately expanding the scope of hunger.
Mukeshimana added that countries that rely on imports face a double bind, as fertilizer shortages and rising costs compound existing pressures from climate shocks, armed conflict, and accumulated debt, making it extremely difficult for these countries to withstand the current crisis.
“In import-dependent countries, fertilizer shortages and price spikes amplify existing pressures from climate shocks, conflict, and debt. Left unaddressed, these shocks can drive wider development setbacks, hunger, increasing humanitarian needs, forced migration, conflict and political instability.”
