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Türkiye Raises End-2026 Inflation Target to 24%

FILE PHOTO: A view of the city's business and financial districts, from the July 15 Martyrs' Bridge, known as the Bosphorus Bridge, which links the city's Asian and European sides, in Istanbul, Türkiye, November 2, 2025. REUTERS/Murad Sezer/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: A view of the city's business and financial districts, from the July 15 Martyrs' Bridge, known as the Bosphorus Bridge, which links the city's Asian and European sides, in Istanbul, Türkiye, November 2, 2025. REUTERS/Murad Sezer/File Photo
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Türkiye Raises End-2026 Inflation Target to 24%

FILE PHOTO: A view of the city's business and financial districts, from the July 15 Martyrs' Bridge, known as the Bosphorus Bridge, which links the city's Asian and European sides, in Istanbul, Türkiye, November 2, 2025. REUTERS/Murad Sezer/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: A view of the city's business and financial districts, from the July 15 Martyrs' Bridge, known as the Bosphorus Bridge, which links the city's Asian and European sides, in Istanbul, Türkiye, November 2, 2025. REUTERS/Murad Sezer/File Photo

Türkiye's central bank raised its end-2026 interim inflation target to 24% from 16% Governor Fatih Karahan said on Thursday, forecasting that the inflationary effects related to the Iran war would remain pronounced in the short term.

Presenting the central bank's quarterly inflation report in Istanbul, Karahan said the bank also lifted its end-2027 interim inflation target ⁠to 15% from ⁠9%, setting its end-2028 interim target at 9%.

"While the central question before us is how long the regional tensions and pressures on energy supply will persist, we assess that the related inflationary effects ⁠will remain pronounced in the short term," Reuters quoted Karahan as saying.

He said that how long the tension lasts is a critical risk factor in terms of the inflation outlook, adding that there would be no compromise on the bank's determination to bring down inflation and it will continue to use all available tools for disinflation.

In the previous quarterly inflation report ⁠in ⁠February, the bank raised its year-end inflation forecast range by two percentage points to 15-21% and maintained its interim 16% target, despite market doubts about whether the downward trend seen throughout 2025 is on track.

The war-related surge in energy prices has rattled import-heavy economies like Türkiye. Monthly inflation surged to 4.18% in April and 32.37% on the year.

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Iraqi Daily Oil Exports in August Highest since Start of War

A view across Shatt al-Arab of the 'Bin Omar' oil field north of Basra, Iraq (Reuters)
A view across Shatt al-Arab of the 'Bin Omar' oil field north of Basra, Iraq (Reuters)
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Iraqi Daily Oil Exports in August Highest since Start of War

A view across Shatt al-Arab of the 'Bin Omar' oil field north of Basra, Iraq (Reuters)
A view across Shatt al-Arab of the 'Bin Omar' oil field north of Basra, Iraq (Reuters)

Iraq's average daily oil exports since the beginning of August are the highest since the outbreak of the Middle East war between Iran and the United States, which has choked off the Strait of Hormuz, the oil ministry said Friday.

Iraqi Oil Minister Bassem Mohammed Khudair told a press conference that "exports since the beginning of the month have reached a rate of two million barrels" per day, for a total of around 26 million barrels, saying the daily rate was achieved "for the first time since the crisis began".

Business

Fitch Keeps US at 'AA+', Cites Economic Resilience amid Fiscal Risks

The American flag flies in the National Mall near the Capitol building in Washington (Reuters)
The American flag flies in the National Mall near the Capitol building in Washington (Reuters)
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Fitch Keeps US at 'AA+', Cites Economic Resilience amid Fiscal Risks

The American flag flies in the National Mall near the Capitol building in Washington (Reuters)
The American flag flies in the National Mall near the Capitol building in Washington (Reuters)

Fitch on Thursday affirmed the sovereign credit rating for the United States at "AA+" with a stable outlook, citing its large economy, high per-capita income and the US dollar's status as the world's leading reserve currency.

The US economy remained resilient despite higher tariffs, government spending cuts, tighter border controls and heightened policy uncertainty, reflecting its ability to absorb shocks and economic flexibility, Reuters quoted the credit ratings agency ⁠as saying.

Fitch, however, estimated ⁠economic growth of 1.9% in 2026-2027, lower than the 2.8% in 2025, and noted weakening labor demand and a significant slowdown in job creation this year.

Inflation remains a concern, with the agency expecting it to average 3.4% in ⁠2026, above the Federal Reserve's 2% target. Tariffs have added to core goods inflation, though their impact has been less severe than expected.

Fitch expects the general government deficit to widen to 7.4% of GDP in 2026 and remain at that level in 2027, the highest among "AA"-rated sovereigns.

Higher military and interest costs, along with rising Medicare and Social Security spending, would limit ⁠efforts ⁠to reduce the deficit.

Peer S&P Global also maintained its "AA+" rating on the US in June, citing the economy's resilience and strong institutions.

Fitch had downgraded the US sovereign rating by one notch from the top-tier triple-A rating in 2023, pointing to expected fiscal deterioration and repeated down-to-the-wire debt ceiling negotiations.

Moody's downgraded the US by one notch last year, citing rising debt levels and stripping the country of its last remaining triple-A rating.

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Gold Heads for Weekly Loss as Investors Unwind Inflation-fueled Rally

An employee displays gold bars at the Korea Gold Exchange in Seoul (Reuters)
An employee displays gold bars at the Korea Gold Exchange in Seoul (Reuters)
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Gold Heads for Weekly Loss as Investors Unwind Inflation-fueled Rally

An employee displays gold bars at the Korea Gold Exchange in Seoul (Reuters)
An employee displays gold bars at the Korea Gold Exchange in Seoul (Reuters)

Gold prices slipped on Friday and were headed for a weekly loss as investors locked in profits a day after bullion was propelled to its highest level in more than two months on mild US inflation data that weakened the case for a near-term Federal Reserve rate hike.

Spot gold was down 0.5% at $4,330.70 per ounce, as of 0714 ‌GMT. US gold futures ‌for December delivery slid 0.7% to $4,387.40, said Reuters.

Bullion climbed to ‌its ⁠highest point since ⁠June 5 on Thursday, before settling lower, setting it on track for a weekly loss.

"There is some episodic and more speculative capital that's maybe taking a bit of profit in gold, because there's not a near-term catalyst quite so potent immediately in front of us," said Ilya Spivak, head of global macro at finance content network Tastylive.

"Gold ⁠may be setting up, with some choppy trading ‌along the way, for a meaningful ‌rally now. And if we can take out $4,400, I don't think $5,000 by year-end ‌is any kind of a sketch."

The non-yielding metal got ‌a boost after an unexpected drop in US July nonfarm payrolls last week, followed by softer inflation data this week, sharply reducing expectations of a rate hike next month.

US producer prices were unchanged in July, following a revised ‌0.1% drop in June, while US consumer prices barely increased in July as the cost of ⁠gasoline declined ⁠for a second consecutive month.

Traders are now pricing only a 33% chance of a rate hike in September, down from about 55% last week, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

Lower interest rates make gold more attractive relative to yield-bearing assets.

On the geopolitical front, Washington on Thursday threatened to maintain a naval blockade of Iran indefinitely, ratcheting up economic pressure on Tehran as ceasefire talks have floundered.

In other metals, spot silver slipped 0.3% to $64.25 per ounce.

Platinum was steady at $1,717.40, while palladium inched 0.3% lower at $1,303.50, both touching their lowest levels since August 4 earlier in the session. Both metals were headed for a weekly drop.