Alvarez & Marsal Returns to Lebanon’s Central Bank to Trace Missing $20 Billion

People walk outside Lebanon's Central Bank building in Beirut, Lebanon April 4, 2025. REUTERS/Mohamed Azakir
People walk outside Lebanon's Central Bank building in Beirut, Lebanon April 4, 2025. REUTERS/Mohamed Azakir
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Alvarez & Marsal Returns to Lebanon’s Central Bank to Trace Missing $20 Billion

People walk outside Lebanon's Central Bank building in Beirut, Lebanon April 4, 2025. REUTERS/Mohamed Azakir
People walk outside Lebanon's Central Bank building in Beirut, Lebanon April 4, 2025. REUTERS/Mohamed Azakir

Lebanon’s central bank (BDL) has formally reappointed consulting firm Alvarez & Marsal to conduct a comprehensive forensic audit on the period from October 2019 through the end of 2023, in a move aimed at uncovering possible misuse, embezzlement, and waste involving more than $20 billion in depleted foreign reserves.

The announcement, made in coordination with the finance and justice ministries, reflects renewed commitments by BDL to disclose how public funds and central bank reserves were managed during Lebanon’s financial collapse.

A senior official described the decision as a significant step toward applying international accounting standards to investigate allegations of financial misconduct tied to the rapid depletion of central bank reserves following the onset of Lebanon’s economic crises nearly seven years ago.

According to BDL, the audit is part of a joint institutional effort to review a period marked by large-scale financial interventions carried out by the bank on behalf of both public and private sector entities.

The selection of Alvarez & Marsal is particularly significant because the firm previously conducted a forensic audit of the central bank’s accounts covering 2015 to 2020. Officials believe the new review could build on earlier findings submitted to the Finance Ministry and provide a clearer accounting of how funds were spent.

A senior official told Asharq Al-Awsat that the audit and its expected findings could reshape Lebanon’s financial recovery strategy by establishing a credible basis for restructuring financial data, supporting legal accountability efforts, recovering misappropriated funds, and advancing reforms long demanded by international donors and financial institutions, particularly the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank.

Scrutiny of Subsidy Programs

The audit will focus heavily on subsidy programs approved by successive Lebanese governments between 2019 and 2023, involving billions of dollars in transfers and payments, as well as funds provided by the central bank to public institutions and government agencies.

It will also examine international transfers made by BDL to commercial banks’ overseas accounts.

According to the central bank, the primary objective is to determine whether all transfers and payments - particularly those tied to subsidy programs - were legally authorized, reached their intended beneficiaries, and were used for their stated purposes without misuse or exploitation of public funds.

The central bank said the audit would assist the finance and justice ministries in identifying and prosecuting individuals or entities that may have improperly benefited from subsidy funds or diverted them from their intended purposes. Once completed, the report will be formally submitted to both ministries.

Preliminary estimates indicate the renewed audit will examine at least $11 billion spent on consumer subsidy programs during the period, much of it allocated to fuel subsidies. Large quantities of subsidized fuel were allegedly smuggled into Syria through illicit trade networks while Lebanese motorists queued at gas stations.

Consumer subsidy programs were also marred by major loopholes, including support for luxury goods that offered little benefit to ordinary citizens. At the same time, subsidized Lebanese products reportedly appeared at discounted prices in markets abroad, including Syria, Kuwait, Cyprus, and other Arab and European countries.

There were similar concerns son medicine and medical supply subsidies, amid allegations of hoarding and artificial shortages despite extensive public support. Lists of subsidy recipients and traders had previously been referred by the central bank to public prosecutors, but investigations have so far produced few meaningful results.



US Economy Expanded at Solid 2.1% Pace in January-March, Government Says

President Donald Trump stands on stage after speaking at the opening of the Great American State Fair on the National Mall, Wednesday, June 24, 2026, in Washington. (AP Photo/Julia Demaree Nikhinson)
President Donald Trump stands on stage after speaking at the opening of the Great American State Fair on the National Mall, Wednesday, June 24, 2026, in Washington. (AP Photo/Julia Demaree Nikhinson)
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US Economy Expanded at Solid 2.1% Pace in January-March, Government Says

President Donald Trump stands on stage after speaking at the opening of the Great American State Fair on the National Mall, Wednesday, June 24, 2026, in Washington. (AP Photo/Julia Demaree Nikhinson)
President Donald Trump stands on stage after speaking at the opening of the Great American State Fair on the National Mall, Wednesday, June 24, 2026, in Washington. (AP Photo/Julia Demaree Nikhinson)

The US economy expanded at a solid and unexpected 2.1% annual pace from January through March, the Commerce Department reported Thursday in its final estimate of first-quarter growth.

The growth in gross domestic product — the nation’s output of goods and services — marked a rebound from a sluggish 0.5% in the last three months of 2025 when a 43-day federal government shutdown weighed on the economy. Thursday’s numbers were an upgrade from of Commerce’s previous first-quarter estimate of 1.6% growth, The Associated Press reported.

Business investment surged, probably reflecting an investment boom in artificial intelligence. But consumer spending, which accounts for around 70% of US economic activity, fell sharply from fourth-quarter 2025 and from Commerce’s previous estimate in a sign that consumers may be cutting back in the face of higher gasoline prices caused by the war with Iran.

“It was unsettling to see consumer spending revised even lower,” Heather Long, chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, said in a commentary.

"Spending is likely to tick up in (the second quarter), but it’s worth watching carefully... It’s been a tough few months for American consumers, but most have been able to make it through. The question is how much relief is coming” as the US and Iran continue talks toward a resolution of the conflict.

Excluding housing, private investment jumped 10.6%, up from 2.4% in fourth-quarter 2025. In a sign of the AI boom, investment in information-processing equipment jumped at a 39.9% pace as companies scrambled to outfit their data centers. But Michael Reid, head of US economics at RBC Capital Markets, said before Thursday’s report came out that “unfortunately, it’s not a sustainable path.’’ He expects data center investment to lose momentum going forward.

Residential investment, weighed down by high interest rates, dropped 7.8% from January through March, biggest fall since late 2022 and the fifth straight quarterly decline.

The federal government's spending and investment rose at a 9.4% clip in the first quarter after dropping 16.6% in October-December 2025 largely because of the government shutdown.

Imports, which are subtracted from GDP, grew at a slower pace than last estimated from January through March. They still subtracted 1.49 percentage points from first-quarter growth, but that was down from a 2.59 percentage-point hit in the previous estimate and was a major factor in Thursday's upgrade.

The US economy — the world’s biggest — has continued to chug along despite the Iran energy shock. The American job market has proven especially resilient. Employers added an average 188,000 jobs a month from March through May after adding fewer than 10,000 a month in 2025 amid uncertainty over President Donald Trump’s trade and immigration policies.

Thursday’s report was the Commerce Department’s third and final estimate of first-quarter GDP growth. The first look at second-quarter economic growth is due July 30.


Baghdad Urges OPEC to Raise Iraq's Production Quota

A handout picture released by Iraq's Prime Minister's Press Office on January 2, 2025, shows a partial view of the oil refinery of Baiji north of Baghdad, during the inauguration ceremony of the fourth and fifth units. (Iraq's Prime Minister's Press Office / AFP)
A handout picture released by Iraq's Prime Minister's Press Office on January 2, 2025, shows a partial view of the oil refinery of Baiji north of Baghdad, during the inauguration ceremony of the fourth and fifth units. (Iraq's Prime Minister's Press Office / AFP)
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Baghdad Urges OPEC to Raise Iraq's Production Quota

A handout picture released by Iraq's Prime Minister's Press Office on January 2, 2025, shows a partial view of the oil refinery of Baiji north of Baghdad, during the inauguration ceremony of the fourth and fifth units. (Iraq's Prime Minister's Press Office / AFP)
A handout picture released by Iraq's Prime Minister's Press Office on January 2, 2025, shows a partial view of the oil refinery of Baiji north of Baghdad, during the inauguration ceremony of the fourth and fifth units. (Iraq's Prime Minister's Press Office / AFP)

Baghdad has urged OPEC to increase Iraq's oil production quota, taking into account the damage done to its industry by its history of conflicts and the recent regional war, its oil ministry said Thursday.

Like other oil producers, Iraq, a founding member of OPEC, was greatly affected by the Middle East war, as it is hugely dependent on oil exports, which make up about 90 percent of its budget revenues.

Iraq's oil ministry said that reassessing production baselines was important "to ensure they are aligned with the sustainable production capacities of member countries", and with respect to "Iraq's unique security and economic circumstances".

OPEC has "responded by launching a process to reassess" its member states' capacities, the ministry said.

Following reports of a possible Iraqi exit from OPEC, oil ministry spokesperson Salim al-Rikabi told AFP that Iraq "has no intention of withdrawing from the organization and remains committed to its mechanisms".

But he added that the cartel "has to raise Iraq's production quota. Otherwise, a decision will have to be made about whether to stay or leave the organization".

Iraq has started increasing its production "in line with its capacities and needs", he said.

The ministry said that "reports suggesting that Iraq is considering ending its membership in OPEC do not reflect" the government's position.

Iraq's ministry said that any change would be decided within OPEC's existing framework, but noted there was a "high level of understanding" among members regarding Iraq's situation after decades of wars, sanctions, and recent attacks on the sector during the Middle East War.

All of these challenges will be considered to "ensure that Iraqi oil production reaches a fair level".

The Middle East war and Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz choked off shipments and prompted production cuts in key oil-producing countries including Iraq, shaking world energy markets.

During the conflict, several Iraqi oil fields were struck by drones mostly launched by pro-Iran armed groups.

Before the war, Iraq produced around four million barrels per day (bpd), and exported an average of 3.5 million bpd, mostly via Hormuz.

After the recent deal between Washington and Tehran to end the fighting, Iraq now hopes to return within two months to its previous production levels.

A former oil ministry official, who requested anonymity, warned against Iraq's exit from OPEC.

A "withdrawal would not serve the interests of Iraq", which is exclusively dependent on the oil sector, he said.

"I don't think that Iraq has really the incentives to leave OPEC," said Jorge Leon, an analyst at Rystad Energy.

Instead, he added, Iraq might be trying to apply pressure to "the capacity review exercise that the group is currently doing", which will serve as the basis for the 2027 quota.


Egypt Overhauls Nitrogen Fertilizer Export Levy, Exempts High-grade Ammonium Nitrate

General view of part of Cairo (Reuters)
General view of part of Cairo (Reuters)
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Egypt Overhauls Nitrogen Fertilizer Export Levy, Exempts High-grade Ammonium Nitrate

General view of part of Cairo (Reuters)
General view of part of Cairo (Reuters)

Egypt has revamped its export tax regime for nitrogen fertilizers, replacing a fixed export tax with a 10% ad valorem duty on all nitrogenous fertilizer exports, while exempting high-purity ammonium nitrate, according to a decision published in the Official Gazette on Thursday.

The duty, calculated on the FOB invoice value, does not apply to pure ammonium nitrate with a nitrogen concentration exceeding 34.2%, or to shipments destined for productive enterprises in Egypt's free zones, Reuters reported.

The World Bank warned in its April Commodity Markets Outlook that global fertilizer prices could rise by more than 30% in 2026 due to conflict-related disruptions in the Middle East and logistical risks around the Strait of Hormuz.

The new decree replaces a flat $90-per-metric-ton tax introduced in May, tying the levy more directly to prevailing export prices, which have fallen since peaking in mid-April.
Egypt is the world's seventh-largest exporter of nitrogen fertilizers, according to LSEG data.